The holiday season necessitated an amended NFL schedule, and we’re all in a better position because of it. With Christmas Day falling on a Monday, the NFL had no choice but to satiate its rabid fanbase and add two games to the slate rather than moving forward with the usual singular contest.
Now, we have three games to look forward to, starting with the Las Vegas Raiders versus Kansas City Chiefs at 1 pm ET. That game is followed by the New York Giants visiting the Philadelphia Eagles at 4:30 pm ET before we conclude the evening with a potential preview of Super Bowl LVIII, with the Baltimore Ravens taking on the San Francisco 49ers.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 16 Christmas Day NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Aidan O’Connell Higher 1.5 Rushing Yards
The Aidan O’Connell era is off to a good start in Las Vegas. The rookie quarterback took the reigns of the offense in Week 4, but it took a coaching chance a few weeks after that for O’Connell to unlock his fullest potential. The Raiders haven’t looked back since,
In six games under Antonio Pierce, the Raiders are averaging 307.0 total yards of offense. In the eight games before the regime change, Las Vegas was languishing at 268.4 yards per game. More impressively, the Raiders have gone north of 296 total yards in all but two of those contests, with a 202-yard dud throwing off their average. Although there’s still room for improvement, it’s clear that Pierce has found a way to maximize his team’s production.
One of the areas the Raiders continue to work on is encouraging O’Connell to tuck the ball and run as the situations present themselves. He’s gingerly expanding his horizons, with four rushing attempts for eight yards over the past five weeks. Before that, O’Connell had mustered just three yards on three carries, with all of those coming in the first start of his career.
O’Connell will have some room to run on Monday. Of all the quarterbacks to face the Chiefs this season, O’Connell is the only one not to pick up yards with his legs. He’ll have the opportunity to buck that trend in Week 16’s showdown, and we expect him to make the most of it. Look for O’Connell to eclipse his modest rushing yard projection against the Chiefs.
Saquon Barkley Higher 55.5 Rushing Yards
There might not be another running back in the league who is so fundamentally important to his team’s success than Saquon Barkley. The Giants have had three QBs start under center, with no one looking particularly exceptional. Tommy DeVito has been the most successful of the bunch, but 1,032 passing yards across seven games (five starts) isn’t anything to write home about. There’s no telling the depths of the Giants’ despair if not for Barkey.
He may be coming off his worst game of the season, but that only plays into Barkley bouncing back in Week 16. The Penn State product put forth a lackluster effort against the New Orleans Saints last time out, scraping by with 14 yards on nine carries. Otherwise, it’s been another effective campaign from Barkley, who has nearly matched last season’s Pro Bowl metrics.
Barkley has fallen just below his yards per carry, rushing yards per game, and carries per game from 2022, with marginal decreases in all three categories. He continues to rank among the top 14 running backs in rushing attempts and yardage despite missing three games with a sprained ankle and dealing with the lingering effects of the injury.
Overall, Philadelphia’s defense has performed as one of the top run-stopping units, but they haven’t looked the part lately. Their last three opponents have averaged 128 rushing yards per game, with the lead backs running for at least 59 yards in each contest. If Kenneth Walker can reach 86 yards and 4.5 yards per carry, Barkley should have no problem surpassing a more modest total of 55.5.
Gus Edwards Higher 3.5 Receiving Yards
And just like that, we’re onto the evening contest. The Baltimore Ravens have seated themselves at the head of the AFC table, ranking first in the conference with just a few weeks to go. As usual, Baltimore’s success is predicated on the run, setting a league-high with 32.7 running plays per game. Still, keeping the ball on the ground isn’t the only way the Ravens incorporate their RBs into the game planning. We’re anticipating ongoing involvement from Gus Edwards in the aerial attack.
Edwards isn’t the prototypical pass-catching back, but he’s adapting to an expanding role. With three weeks left in the season, the Ravens running back has already set career highs in receptions, receiving yards, and yards per target. They are still modest totals, but Edwards is up to 11 catches on 12 targets for a 91.7% catch rate and 141 yards.
The 49ers are an imposing defensive force, but they constantly lose sight of running backs in the passing game. Over the last three outings, seven different running backs have caught passes for at least four yards. That number jumps to 13 when we go back to Week 10.
Baltimore has enough contingencies built into their play calling that Edwards will inevitably be called into action in the passing game. Whether it’s a check-down, outlet pass on a blitz or designed pass play, Edwards should get the ball via a throw and have enough room to move against the Niners defense. This total is too low to pass up, leaving an edge in backing Edwards to surpass 3.5 receiving yards.
Deebo Samuel Higher 11.5 Rushing Yards
Deebo Samuel was all the rage in 2021. Kyle Shanahan unlocked Samuel’s superpowers, helping him earn his first All-Pro nomination en route to an NFL-best 18.2 yards per reception and 1,770 yars from scrimmage. Regression was inevitable following those lofty benchmarks, but Samuel is back to matching that production over the last few weeks. He should be a primary factor again on Monday as his 49ers build on their six-game winning streak.
Samuel gets more usage in the run game than virtually every other wide receiver. Since the start of the 2021 season, the 27-year-old has totaled 769 rushing yards on 132 carries. Factoring in injury time, that equals 18.8 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry.
It helps that Baltimore has lost some of its defensive luster this season. The Ravens allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game last year, limiting opponents to a paltry 89.8. They’ve been much less effective in 2023, with that metric bumping to 102.1 and putting the team on the edge of the top ten.
Other teams have tried to emulate the 49ers’ play calling, albeit unable to replicate their level of production. The difference is Deebo Samuel. Samuel’s skillset puts him on a different plane than most other wideouts who try to take off in the running game. He will have opportunities to run, and the Ravens don’t have the faculties to stop him. Samuel cruises in this one.
