NFL Fantasy Pick'ems for Week 16

As if the season wasn’t bright enough, football fans have a full Christmas eve slate to brighten up their day. Of course, Week 16 is already underway, with a Thursday night and two Saturday games in the rearview mirror. Factoring in Monday’s three-game holiday spectacular, that leaves bettors with an enticing nine-game slate to dissect Sunday. Here at FantasyLabs, we’ve got you covered from every conceivable angle, helping everyone fill their holidays with football joy.

This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.

Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.

Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.

And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.

Week 16 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems

Gardner Minshew Higher 18.5 Completions

If not for Gardner Minshew, the Indianapolis Colts wouldn’t be sitting in a playoff spot with three weeks left in the season. Minshew stepped in after Anthony Richardson went down with a season-ending shoulder injury, leading the Colts to a 6-4 record as a starter. We’ve seen him level up his passing game over his recent sample, a tool that will come in handy against the Atlanta Falcons.

The Colts have unleashed Minshew over their past few outings. The former sixth-round pick has thrown 39 or more passes in three of his past four, completing 62.7% of those tosses. Practically, that’s translated to 24 or more completions in all but one of those contests, with an average of 23.0 per game.

Pay attention to these curious splits. Indianapolis turns to its passing attack much more frequently on the road. At home, the Colts run passing plays 52.7% of the time. As the visitors, the number jumps to 62.1%. Consequently, Minshew’s passing attempts per game inflate from 31.3 to 36.7. More impressively, his completion percentage jumps from 61.1% to 64.6%.

The measurable objective information supports that the Colts will dial up their passing plays on the road against the Falcons. Minshew has performed better on the road than at home, suggesting that his completions prop is far too low. We’re taking a firm stance on the Colts QB exceeding 18.5 completions Sunday.

Editor’s note: This line has moved to 19.5.

AJ Dillon Higher 7.5 Rushing Attempts

At the start of the season, it was assumed that AJ Dillon and and Aaron Jones would be deployed as a two-headed running back monster. Although both RBs are getting play, injuries have limited both players’ participation throughout the campaign. Dillon has played more frequently than Jones, overtaking him as the feature back on running plays over the past month.

Even though Dillon missed last week’s contest, he still projects to be in a more equitable workshare Sunday. His 164 carries are more than double the 79 Jones has produced, and the tandem has had a relatively equal split when both are healthy. So far this season, Dillon and Jones have suited up for seven games together. In those contests, Dillon averages 10.1 rushing attempts per game, going for nine or more carries in all but two of those outings.

Additionally, opponents are enjoying a tremendous amount of success in bulldozing the Carolina Panthers this year. The NFC South basement dwellers allow the fifth-most rushing attempts and 13th-most rushing yards per game, ensuring there are plenty of carries to be distributed amongst Dillon and Jones.

Don’t be deterred by both Packers running backs playing in this one. Dillon and Jones have shared duties before, with the former taking on a more robust workload than we’ve seen in years past. Dillon should have no problem exceeding 7.5 rushing attempts in Week 16.

Tyler Allgeier Higher 34.5 Rushing Yards

From one shared backfield to another; we’re shifting our sights to Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson. Both players have lofty ceilings in Week 16, running against one of the weakest rush defenses in the league. Still, we give the more pronounced edge to Allgeier, expecting him to soar over 34.5 rushing yards against the Colts.

Allgeier’s workload has fluctuated from week-to-week, but the Falcons have been more consistent with his usage more recently. The BYU product is averaging 10.2 rushing attempts per game over his last six, ranging from eight to 14 carries over that stretch. More impressively, Allgeier has totaled 245 yards, for a running average of 40.8 yards per game.

Those benchmarks will only climb higher against a soft Indianapolis rush defense. The Colts give up the seventh-most rushing yards per game, with 11 different rushers surpassing 33 rushing yards over their previous six contests.

Despite Robinson getting much of the fanfare, Allgeier remains a focal point on Atlanta’s offense. The second-year pro has been instrumental to the team’s success and should figure prominently in this week’s game planning. It might take a few attempts, but Allgeier should have no problem exceeding 34.5 rushing yards.

Editor’s note: This line has moved to 35.5.

Trevor Lawrence Higher 13.5 Rushing Yards

Our last pick from the main slate is yet another rushing play, this time from a quarterback. The Jacksonville Jaguars are in the thick of it in the AFC South, tied with the Colts and Houston Texans at 8-6. They travel to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 16, needing a win to stay afloat in the playoff race. Thankfully, the Jags can turn to Trevor Lawrence to move them downfield.

Lawrence’s best asset remains his cannon of an arm, but we’ve seen him rely on his running ability more than we have in years past. The former Clemson Tigers signal caller is just 35 yards short of setting a new career high in rushing yards with three games remaining. As expected, his yards per game, yards per carry, and rushing attempts per game are all career bests, keeping defenses on their toes.

We’ve seen Lawrence torch opponents this season. Already in 2023, the former first-overall selection has four 30-yard rushing games, including last week’s 41-yard effort. Moreover, Lawrence has exceeded 13.5 rushing yards in eight of his 14 outings.

The Bucs have been good at defending the run, but they will have their hands full protecting their secondary while simultaneously keeping Lawrence in check. At the end of the day, we don’t like their chances to achieve both, with Lawrence finding his way north of 13.5 rushing yards.

This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.

Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.

Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.

And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.