It’s that magical time of year! Once a season, around the holidays, the NFL schedule spills onto Saturday. That starts in Week 15, giving us three weeks of football on Saturday and Sunday before what’s sure to be an eventful Week 18. But that’s putting the cart way ahead of the horse. We still have to delve into this week’s player pick’ems from the three-game slate on Saturday, highlighting a handful of picks that are expected to produce plus-expected value results.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 15 Saturday NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Mitch Trubisky Lower 30.5 Passing Attempts
There aren’t many things that can unite the world these days, but accepting that Mitch Trubisky is not a competent NFL quarterback is probably one of them. The Pittsburgh Steelers pivot has been unremarkable since landing in the Steel City, but has been thrust into action following Kenny Pickett’s ankle injury. Pittsburgh is desperately trying to stay in the AFC playoff race, and taking the ball out of Trubisky’s hands will help them accomplish that.
The surest way to shorten an already abridged leash is to do what Trubisky did last week. On the scoresheet, he only threw one pick, but he had several other picks, and bad plays called back due to penalties. If that’s all that could be said at home against the lowly New England Patriots, Mike Tomlin needs to come up with a new strategy to escape the Indianapolis Colts.
Indianapolis has tightened its defensive standard over its recent sample. The last three opponents they’ve faced have averaged 217.0 passing yards per game on a tight 61.3% completion rate. Moreover, their vaunted pass rush has been one of the best at getting to the quarterback, sacking opposing QBs 3.2 times per game, second-most in the NFL.
Rushing the ball will be the priority for the Steelers on Saturday. Between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh can come up with play designs to keep the ball moving without relying on Trubisky to throw up lame duck after lame duck. Consequently, we’re taking a firm stance on Trubisky staying beneath 30.5 pass attempts.
David Montgomery Lower 15.5 Rushing Attempts
There are only so many snaps to go around, and the Detroit Lions have a growing list of playmakers to whom they need to distribute the ball. We saw David Montgomery thrive as the bell-cow on offense earlier this season, but Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all taking a piece of the offensive pie. Consequently, Montgomery’s volume has been hampered by a shared workload. That will be even more pronounced on Saturday as the Lions incorporate all of their top-skilled players to keep the Denver Broncos defense guessing.
Montgomery has had a diminishing workload over the better part of two months. Since October 15, the Lions running back has gone north of 15 carries just once, averaging 12.2 rushing attempts across the six-game sample. That’s a substantial departure from the 22.0 carries he was averaging through the first four weeks of the season.
Further, Montgomery’s time on the field is being negatively impacted by the emergence of Gibbs as a top offensive threat. The elder halfback has been limited to 40.0% of snaps or fewer in all but one of his last six outings, with Gibbs carving out a more prominent role as the season progresses.
For long-term success purposes, having a plethora of elite playmakers to incorporate into your offensive schemes is a good problem to have. From a player projection perspective, that leaves bettors with a substantial edge in backing Montgomery to go below 15.5 rushing attempts.
Justin Jefferson Lower 77.5 Receiving Yards
It was bound to happen. After three years of seemingly limitless production, Justin Jefferson has hit a wall in 2023. Obviously, injuries have played a role in his diminished capacity, but regression doesn’t check receipts before it impacts players. On top of dealing with a significant hamstring ailment, the Minnesota Vikings wideout took a heavy hit in last week’s outing, adding a chest injury to his limitations. Surely, those setbacks will limit him against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Jefferson’s ability to keep pace on Saturday will be severely impacted by conditioning and injuries. While most of the league has been playing at full speed for the last 14 weeks, Jefferson played just 13 snaps last week, his only plays from scrimmage since Week 5. You can’t replicate game speed, and it would be unwise to expect Jefferson to step in and pick up where he left off, considering his injuries.
Additionally, while he was recovering from the hamstring issue, his usual quarterback, Kirk Cousins, went down with a season-ending injury. As such, Jefferson hasn’t spent much time getting his timing down with Nick Mullens or Joshua Dobbs. Those issues will be compounded by a limited designation at practice throughout the week.
Less than a week ago, Jefferson was hospitalized with an injury following a massive hit. Like many others, we’re taking a conservative approach with what to expect from him as the Vikings compete on a short week plus travel. Minnesota has a handful of other pass-catchers to turn to, facilitating a more player-friendly snap count for Jefferson. He projects to stay below many of his projections, but we’re planting our flag in lower than 77.5 receiving yards.
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