We are already knee-deep in Week 15. Bettors got to sink their teeth into Thursday Night Football and Saturday’s three-game slate already this weekend, satiating our football appetite. Still, we have a solid 10-game main slate to look forward to Sunday, with most of those contests factoring into the tightly contested playoff races. We’re keying in on our favorite plus-expected-value plays from all of the early action.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 15 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Kyren Williams Higher 20.5 Rushing Attempts
Kyren Williams will need to climb a mountain to go higher than his rushing attempts Sunday, but we think he gets there. The Los Angeles Rams running back has emerged as one of the top explosive playmakers in the NFL, bursting onto the scene in his second professional season. We’re expecting Sean McVay to ride his newfound lead back to glory as the Rams try to keep themselves in the NFC playoff conversation.
Williams has been a stud all season. His 801 rushing yards put him seventh in the league, but he’s perched himself among the best while playing in only nine games. McVay has caught onto what Williams brings to the table, giving him an increased workload in the latter part of the campaign and making him one of the few every-down backs in the NFL.
In last week’s overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Williams toted the ball 25 times for 114 yards. That was the fourth time in six games that he had eclipsed 21 carries and the second straight game in which he had played at least 90.0% of the offensive snaps.
Although they’ve tidied up their play, opponents are still taking liberties with the Commanders’ subpar rush defense. Washington has given up 120 or more rushing yards in two of its last four outings, relegating it to the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed. The Rams will play to that weakness by consistently feeding Williams the ball. As such, he should have a stable enough workload to surpass 20.5 rushing attempts.
Chris Rodriguez Higher 22.5 Rushing Yards
We are staying on theme with our second pick, shifting our focus to the other sideline in the Rams vs. Commanders game. Earlier this week, Brian Robinson was ruled out of this NFC clash, leaving a gaping hole in Washington’s backfield. Although Antonio Gibson is expected to shoulder most of the load, there will be some carryover for Chris Rodriguez. Consequently, Rodriguez should have a robust enough role to sail over his rushing yards projection.
The Commanders turned to their rookie running back sparingly over the early part of the season, but Rodriguez is ramping up production more recently. The former Kentucky Wildcat has totaled 17 carries over the past three weeks, accumulating 93 yards along the way. For perspective, Rodriguez handled the ball just 14 times through his first eight games, for a more modest 61 yards.
Further, the Rams have an equally porous rush defense, sitting just ahead of the Commanders by allowing 113.2 yards per game. We saw LA get exposed last week, giving up 139 yards on the ground to the Ravens. That loose standard will be taken advantage of by the Commanders.
One important caveat worth noting is that Rodriguez’s uptick in offensive contributions came with Robinson in the lineup. Now that he’s ruled out, there will be a substantial amount of touches to be split between Rodriguez and Gibson. Gibson will likely serve as the feature back, but we can’t discount what Rodriguez brings to the field in Week 15. Look for him to go north of 22.5 rushing yards.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Higher 12.5 Receiving Yards
It’s definitely too early to press the panic button, but what the hell is going on with the Kansas City Chiefs? The defending Super Bowl Champions have dropped four of their last five, risking their spot atop the AFC West. Nevertheless, the Chiefs can get back in the win column with a strong showing against the New England Patriots on Sunday.
We’ve seen the Chiefs take a multifaceted approach to their game-planning lately as they try to break out of their current funk. Nine different players were targeted in the passing game last week, with all but one of those pass catchers hauling in at least one reception. Included in that is Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has become more of a focal point on offense.
Edwards-Helaire has taken over for Isiah Pacheco, who underwent shoulder surgery and is out indefinitely. We saw CEH scratch the surface in Week 14, playing a season-best 47.8% of snaps. In doing, he set high marks in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, flaunting his ability as a pass catcher.
We’re anticipating sustained success from Edwards-Helaire against the Pats. The former first-round pick has been somewhat ineffective on the ground, but he should have no problem serving as an easy outlet for Patrick Mahomes versus a stingy New England defense. Edwards-Helaire projects to surpass his receiving-yards projection as he asserts himself as the temporary lead back for the Chiefs.
Khalil Herbert Higher 12.5 Rushing Yards
Khalil Herbert may have been usurped on the Chicago Bears’ depth chart, but we don’t think he’s fallen as far as his rushing-yards projection implies. Moreover, the 25-year-old is coming off his worst performance of the season, making him and ideal progression candidate ahead of Sunday’s tilt with the Cleveland Browns.
Herbert was stymied in Week 14, mustering a paltry eight rushing yards on three carries. That effort is the outlier in what’s been an otherwise productive campaign. Last week notwithstanding, Herbert had rushed for at least 24 yards in every game, leading Bears running backs in yards per carry while averaging 42.4 yards per game.
Cleveland’s rush defense hasn’t been up to snuff over its recent sample. The Browns have given up an average of 129.8 rushing yards per game over their past four outings, with all but one of those squads exceeding 120.
Despite their offensive woes, the Bears remain committed to the run on a weekly basis. They’ve accumulated the fourth-most rushing attempts per game, representing the third-highest percentage of rushing plays. Herbert isn’t the first in line to get touches any longer, but he should have more than enough carries to crack 12.5 rushing yards against the Browns.
