Some of the excitement of Week 12 has already passed us by, but there’s still a bevy of action to look forward to. With no teams getting the week off, Sunday’s main slate features a robust 10-game schedule. Among those are several crucial divisional matchups that will go a long way in determining playoff seeding. The Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Houston Texans in a pivotal AFC South battle. Likewise, the Atlanta Falcons host the New Orleans Saints, with the winner moving to the top of the NFC South. And that’s just a taste of what we have to look forward to on Sunday.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Week 12 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Isaiah Hodgins Under 20.5 Receiving Yards
It’s definitely not the most glamorous matchup on the board, but it does feature one of the most pronounced betting advantages. The New York Giants battle it out with the New England Patriots in Week 12, a contest that will undoubtedly feature a reel of lowlights. Neither team can get any offensive momentum going, making it hard for Isaiah Hodgins to exceed his receiving yards projection.
The Giants are onto their third-string quarterback, profoundly impacting their offensive metrics. In three games with Tommy DeVito standing under center, New York is averaging a paltry 247.0 yards per game, dropping them to 262.2 on the season. One of the players most impacted by the change at quarterback is Hodgins.
Hodgins was off to a promising start of the year. Through the first five weeks of the season, the Giants receiver was north of 100 receiving yards on 10 receptions. However, his opportunities have disappeared with the QB changes. Hodgins has totaled just six targets since Week 8, hauling in two of those for 22 yards. Further, his snap count is decreasing, with Hodgins playing 49.0% of snaps or fewer in four of the past six.
It’s evident that Hodgins is a non-factor in DeVito’s progressions. With less field time available to him, it’s unlikely he reverses course on this unfortunate trend. According to our projections, there’s a 32.9% edge in taking Hodgins to go under 20.5 receiving yards, even with Darius Slayton listed as doubtful.
Jonathan Taylor Lower 19.5 Rushing Attempts
Up until the Indianapolis Colts’ last game, we hadn’t seen Jonathan Taylor shoulder his usual workload. The Colts running back had 18 or fewer carries in each of his five games before Week 10, a level he should regress to in Sunday’s matchup versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Taylor needed a few weeks to get up to game speed, but even after a gentle ramp-up up he didn’t get to his previous benchmarks. Diminished effectiveness might play a factor in Taylor’s decreased usage. The former All-Pro is averaging a career-worst 3.8 yards per carry, and his rushing success rate has plummeted.
Additionally, Zack Moss has earned a more robust piece of the rushing attempt pie. The 25-year-old averages more yards per carry and yards per game than Taylor, installing himself as a solid contributor with or without Taylor in the lineup.
Lastly, opponents are taking liberties with the Bucs passing defense. Tampa Bay ranks as one of the worst units in the league against the aerial assault, which could play into the Colts turning to their passing game more frequently. Decreased effectiveness, divided workload, and opponent weakness should play into Taylor staying below 19.5 rushing attempts.
Tyler Allgeier Higher 35.5 Rushing Yards
When the Atlanta Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson with their first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, we knew he would take the reins on offense. But don’t sleep on Tyler Allgeier. The second-year pro still gets carries out of the backfield, and we’re anticipating a boost in effectiveness against a division rival.
Although his usage has taken a hit, Allgeier has maintained a regular workload. He’s averaging 12.5 carries per game for 40.2 yards, albeit with a disappointing 3.2 yards per carry. Nevertheless, the Falcons continue to deploy Allgeier consistently, with the BYU product playing more than 30% of snaps in six of 10 outings.
Moreover, there will be plenty of love to go around against a porous Saints defense. New Orleans sits in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed, falling even further over its recent sample. On the year, opponents are averaging 113.6 yards per game, that number has inflated to 148.3 over their previous three.
Carries will be available for Allgeier, and we expect him to make the most of them at home. The Saints have a very inviting defense and Allgeier gets a sufficient workload to surpass 35.5 rushing yards.
Russell Wilson Higher 18 Completions
I guess we’re going to have to take a week off of making fun of Russell Wilson. The Denver Broncos signal caller has marched his team to victory in four straight games, and they can assert themselves as playoff contenders with another win against the Cleveland Browns. We’re expecting Wilson to cook again this week, going north of 18 completions.
All of a sudden, Wilson can’t miss with his passes. The nine-time Pro Bowler has completed 74.1% of his passes over his four-game winning streak, surpassing 20 completions in all but one of those outings. Predictably, Wilson also has some noteworthy home splits, where his QBR is an MVP-worthy 108.3, thanks in part to his 12-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 8.0 yards per pass attempt.
Altogether, Sean Payton is comfortable turning Wilson loose at home. Even against a sturdy Browns defense, Wilson has the faculties to exceed his modest completions projection. Like it has over the past couple of weeks, it may come down to the waning moments, but we like Wilson to exceed 18 completions.
Royce Freeman Higher 28.5 Rushing Yards
We’re dipping into the rushing yards waters again with our last play, this time highlighting the edge in backing Royce Freeman to go higher than 28.5 rushing yards. Even with Kyren Williams coming off injured reserve, Freeman commands a significant part of the workload.
Freeman has been nothing short of sensational since joining the Los Angeles Rams’ active roster. Over his last four contests, Freeman is averaging 53.8 yards on 12.5 carries. That puts Freeman behind Williams in terms of absolute metrics; however, Freeman has nearly matched his counterpart’s 4.8 yards per carry, putting up 4.3 himself.
Further, Williams will be insulated as he makes his way back from an ominous ankle injury. Consequently, that will necessitate Freeman’s inclusion in the gameplanning over the short term.
Through just four games, Freeman is nearly halfway to setting a new career high in rushing yards. The sixth-year pro has been a catalyst on offense, and the Rams won’t turn their backs on him completely with Williams back in the fold. Freeman will be a complementary piece, and at least in Week 12, he’s an undervalued candidate to go over his rushing yards projection.
