We’re trying not to get too far ahead of ourselves and just live in the moment. But that’s a little more challenging than usual with the Thanksgiving schedule just a few days away and staring us straight in the face. Nevertheless, there is a plethora of exciting football action on the docket, with several crucial divisional matchups scheduled for Week 11. The impact wins and losses have on playoff races is amplified this time of year, ensuring we see the best teams have to offer on Sunday.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 11 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Geno Smith Higher 22.5 Completions
Moving on from Russell Wilson might end up being one of the best decisions the Seattle Seahawks have ever made. Geno Smith has come in and made the offense his own, setting new career benchmarks in several noteworthy metrics. He should have no problem maintaining that form against an underwhelming Los Angeles Rams defense.
Smith was named Comeback Player of the Year last season following a career-best campaign. The former highly touted quarterback completed 69.8% of his passes for 4,282 yards and 7.5 yards per pass attempt, all career bests. Although he’s fallen slightly off that pace this year, he’s continuing to deliver game-changing performances. Smith has completed 23 or more passes in three of his last five, for an average of 316.3 passing yards per game.
Opponents are gassing the Rams secondary lately. L.A. is giving up a whopping 75.3% completion rate over its previous three games, yielding 235.3 passing yards per game. Oddly enough, the Rams have been worse at home this season, with their home/road splits deteriorating at SoFi Stadium.
Conditions are favorable for Smith to deliver another strong effort Sunday. The Seahawks have turned to their passing game more frequently this season, and Smith has been integral to the team’s success. There may be some temptation to take the over on Smith’s passing yards, but our preference is to go higher than 22.5 completions.
Zach Wilson Higher 19.5 Completions
We’ve had some fun roasting Zach Wilson over the years. Partly because the New York Jets don’t deserve nice things, and partly because he’s never lived up to the hype of his second-overall selection. Despite the constant disappointment and underwhelming metrics, Wilson could be poised for a solid effort against a beatable Buffalo Bills secondary.
The Bills defense has looked awful lately. When Russell Wilson is going 24-for-29 against you, you know you have some serious problems. But the rot runs deeper than that. Since Week 7, opponents are averaging 254.3 passing yards per game with a completion rate of 72.4%. We’re not betting that changes on a short week against a divisional opponent.
We also have to give a little credit to Robert Saleh for setting Wilson up for success. The BYU product has completed 56 passes over the last two weeks, recording at least 23 in each outing.
System adjustments could be going a long way to help the Jets reach the playoffs. At least in the short term, they appear to be yielding more positive results for Wilson and the Jets’ aerial assault. Wilson has a reachable completions projection, and he’s been performing well lately. Moreover, the Bills don’t have the defensive wherewithal to stop him.
Davante Adams Lower 6.0 Receptions
A coaching change has made all the difference for the Las Vegas Raiders. In two games under Antonio Pierce, the Raiders have nearly matched their win total from the previous eight weeks. Part of the change that Pierce has implemented is relying less on Davante Adams, a trend that should continue into Week 11.
Since landing in the desert, Adams has been the bellcow of the Raiders offense. The three-time All-Pro has some absurd stats over that stretch. Adams absorbed 180 targets in 17 games last year, starting this season off on similar footing. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Adams was targeted 78 times, hitting double-digits in three of those contests. In the two weeks since, we’ve seen a more involved rushing attack, which could negatively impact Adams’ target share moving forward
The other factor worth considering is that Aidan O’Connell is not as effective at getting Adams the ball. In three starts with O’Connell under center, Adams’ catch rate drops to 54.5% compared to 60.0% with Jimmy Garropolo operating the offense.
The reigns of the offense belong to O’Connell now, which could mean diminished production from Adams. Combined with a rested Miami Dolphins secondary that hasn’t allowed more than a 36-yard receiver over their past couple of outings, that could perpetuate the decreased efficiency from Adams. Go lower than 6.0 receptions Sunday.
Breece Hall Lower 14.5 Rushing Attempts
We’re taking a loosely correlated angle with our last pick, highlighting Breece Hall to go lower than 14.5 rushing attempts. As noted, the Bills have let their guard down against the pass, which should result in sustained success from Wilson. However, we could also infer that Hall will have fewer carries to accommodate the emphasized passing attack.
Gameplanning notwithstanding, Hall hasn’t had the most robust workload over his recent sample. The Jets running back has had 13 or fewer rushing attempts in three of his past four. Saleh might be getting away from Hall with his schemes, as the Iowa State product just hasn’t been efficient at getting yards.
He may have fewer carries, but Hall is also doing less with them. The former third-round pick has just 134 yards on 53 carries for a minuscule 2.5 yards per carry. Additionally, Hall has fallen below 3.3 yards per carry in six of his nine games this season.
As bad as they’ve been against the pass, Buffalo has been exceptional at stopping the run lately. Their last three opponents have combined for just 254 rushing yards, or 84.7 yards per game. That decrease isn’t a result of fewer attempts either, as opponents’ rushing yards per attempt have fallen to 3.3 across the same span.
Increased emphasis on passing, diminished results, and a tidy Bills front all indicate that Hall should fall below 14.5 rushing attempts Sunday.
