The hottest player in football steps onto the field for a primetime showdown with the whole nation watching. Will Levis is tasked with following up his four-touchdown performance against the Atlanta Falcons with a repeat effort against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, he’ll face a much stiffer challenge versus a T.J. Watt-led defensive front that is taking no prisoners. Of course, Levis might only need one touchdown to get past an anemic Steelers offense that continues to get in their own way.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Titans-Steelers NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Will Levis Lower 201.5 Passing Yards
A one-game sample size doesn’t offer any statistical value, but we can make a few inferences to help guide our decision-making for Thursday night football. Specifically, when we factor in rest/prep time, defenses, and travel, it’s unlikely that Will Levis will reach the heights he set against the Atlanta Falcons.
Getting his first start at home set Levis up for success, but he’ll face a much more hostile environment in Pittsburgh. Moreover, the Steelers defense has been one of the best units at pressuring the quarterback. Pittsburgh’s 3.1 sacks per game are nearly double the 1.9 the Falcons muster. Worse, the Titans have been one of the worst teams at protecting their quarterback, giving up an average of 3.6 sacks per game.
Further, the Titans are coming into this one on a short week, leaving the rookie signal-caller limited time to study film and prepare for the different looks the Steelers bring. First-year quarterbacks typically don’t fare well against the complexities of the Steelers defense, and that will be compounded by having less film time to analyze.
Reality is going to set in for Levis in this one. He should expect constant pressure from Watt et al., leading to a substantially different stat line at the end of the night. One of the consequences we are expecting is Levis to stay below 201.5 passing yards.
Chigoziem Okonkwo Higher 4.0 Targets
Inevitably, quarterbacks build rapport with their favorite targets, relying on default pass-catchers to help get in the zone. Oftentimes, we see young QBs turn to their biggest (literally) targets, tight ends, to get comfortable with the rhythm in the pocket. That was the case last week when Levis targeted Chigoziem Okonkwo five times in the 28-23 victory. We’re expecting a similar, if not increased, workload tonight against the Steelers.
Many of the same factors play into Levis throwing to Okonkwo more frequently. The Titans’ pivot won’t have much time in the pocket, meaning downfield looks might be infrequent. Those short to intermediate routes will be quick-hit looks for Levis, and that’s where Okonkwo thrives.
Additionally, Okonkwo has bitten off a more significant piece of the looks on offense this year. The second-year pro has started all but two games, being targeted four or more times in five of his last six. Across those outings, Okonkwo has accumulated 29 targets, representing an 18.1% target share.
It’s worth noting that Okonwko’s metrics have risen modestly over his previous three outings. Since Week 6, the Titans tight end has totaled 18 targets or 21.5% of passes. With Watt in his face, Levis will look Okonkwo’s way frequently, sending him north of 4.0 targets.
Tyjae Spears Higher 14.5 Receiving Yards
Building off our first two picks, we’re leaning into Tyjae Spears taking on a more prominent role in the passing game in Pittsburgh. Levis looked his way four times last week, but Spears should see a more robust workload on Thursday night football.
Spears has been the quintessential change of pace back for the Titans. Playing behind Derrick Henry, Spears has come on as a pass-catching back, executing his role flawlessly. The rookie out of Tulane has been targeted at least four times in all but one of his last five games, hauling in 15-of-18 passes for 113 yards.
More impressively, Spears has enjoyed success across his recent sample. The 22-year-old has eclipsed 18 receiving yards in three of his past four, including outings of 48 and 35 yards against the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts, respectively. Check-downs could be a big part of tonight’s game, and Spears will be the beneficiary.
We also can’t look past the Steelers’ gaffes in Week 8. Jaguars running back Travis Etienne went off for 70 receiving yards on just three catches, illustrating a few deficiencies in the Steelers’ pass coverage versus RBs.
Spears’ role on the Titans continues to evolve, and he should have no problem exceeding 14.5 receiving yards.
Diontae Johnson Lower 5.0 Receptions
As much as people don’t want him to be, Diontae Johnson is an afterthought in Kenny Pickett’s offense. Recency bias might lead you to believe otherwise, as the former Pro Bowler is coming off an eight-catch, 14-target performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, that’s been the exception to an otherwise rigid rule.
Pickett took the reigns of the Steelers offense in Week 4 of last year. Since that time, Johnson has had more than five receptions in a game just three times in 18 games, to go along with a diminished workload. The former Toledo Rocket has hit double-digit targets in only six games with Pickett under center, giving way to the likes of George Pickens, Jaylen Warren, and even Allen Robinson.
Another factor to weigh, Johnson hasn’t hit double-digit targets in consecutive starts with Pickett operating the offense. After last week’s effort, he’s a natural regression candidate, falling back down to typical usage and stats.
Lastly, Pickett is also not operating at 100%, suggesting the Steelers could turn to a heavier dose of the run game against the Titans. This plays into one of Tennessee’s weaknesses, with Titans’ opponents averaging 157.3 rushing yards per game over their last three.
All signs point to a diminished effort from Johnson, and we expect him to fall beneath 5.0 receptions.
