Five months, 272 games, three playoff rounds, and an ungodly amount of Taylor Swift content later, our sights are finally set on Super Bowl LVIII. Surprise, surprise, Patrick Mahomes has led the Kansas City Chiefs back to the promised land for the fourth time in five seasons. Coincidentally, the team they are facing is the same team that kickstarted the Chiefs dynasty — the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners gave up 21 fourth-quarter points to KC in Super Bowl LIV, dropping a heartbreaking 31-20 decision to Mahomes and company. We’re anticipating an equally exciting battle when these teams renew acquaintances at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are.
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Super Bowl LVIII NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Christian McCaffrey Lower 19.0 Rushing Attempts
It’s no secret the San Francisco 49ers offense runs through Christian McCaffrey. The two-time All-Pro led the league in rushing yards, accumulating 1,459 yards in the regular season and 188 more in two playoff games. However, the betting market appears to be overvaluing McCaffrey’s volume in the ground game, leaving an edge in backing him to fall below 19 rushing attempts.
McCaffrey always has a heavy workload, but he straddles a wide line between the ground game and passing attack. He’s gone north of 20 touches in eight of his last 10, but the NFC Championship Game was the first game in which McCaffrey exceeded 18 rushing attempts since Week 11. Moreover, he’s crossed totaled 20 or more carries just twice since Week 4, highlighting the value in taking him to fall below his rushing attempts.
Kyle Shanahan also prioritizes spreading the ball out on offense, and his running backs are no exception. Deebo Samuel, Elijah Mitchell, and Kyle Juszcyk all got carries against the Detroit Lions, and that’s without considering Brock Purdy’s involvement either. McCaffrey is the bell cow, but everyone gets touches for San Fran.
Lastly, teams haven’t had much success running the ball against the Chiefs this postseason. KC has limited the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins to a combined 157 rushing yards, with neither team eclipsing 81. Shanahan knows better than to run his marquee offensive player into a punishing Chiefs’ defensive line, hampering McCaffrey’s ceiling.
One of our most pronounced edges is taking McCaffrey to fall below 19.0 rushing attempts.
Brock Purdy Higher 12.5 Rushing Yards
The first two playoff games haven’t been Brock Purdy’s finest moments. The Niners quarterback struggled in the first half of both contests before eventually settling in to start the second half. Playing from behind has also necessitated more involvement from him in the running game, a skillset we expect him to utilize against the Chiefs.
Purdy has used his legs more frequently in the playoffs, yielding better results. The recently-named Pro Bowl signal-caller has accumulated 62 rushing yards on 11 carries through two postseason games. Granted, 21 of those came on a single carry against the Lions, but he also had a nine-yard jaunt in the Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers.
Further, we’ve seen the Chiefs fail to contain opposing quarterbacks. Most notably, Josh Allen torched Kansas City for 72 yards on 12 carries, but Lamar Jackson also went for 54 yards on eight carries, with Tua Tagovailoa rushing the ball three times for 25 yards.
You will get a range of numbers for Purdy’s rushing yards projection depending on where you shop, but there’s value in taking him to go higher than most. We’re betting Purdy exceeds 12.5 rushing yards on Sunday, but there’s value up to 14.0.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Lower 6.5 Rushing Yards
At the start of last season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco were expected to share the workload out of the Chiefs’ backfield. Two years later, it’s fully understood that CEH plays second fiddle to Pacheco, and it’s unlikely that workload changes in the biggest game of the season.
Edwards-Helaire has totaled just three carries over the past two outings, albeit with 32 yards to show for his effort. But that total looks less impressive when we consider that 28 of those yards came on a crafty play design with a pair of missed tackles against the Buffalo Bills. Otherwise, CEH has been held below 6.5 rushing yards in three of five and eight of 14.
It doesn’t help that he’ll be running into the strength of the 49ers defense. San Francisco allowed the third-fewest rushing yards during the regular season, holding opponents to a paltry 89.7 yards per game. Although they’ve looked unimpressive in two playoff outings, they have had two weeks to rest up and should get back to that standard versus KC.
Edwards-Helaire is not the man for the Chiefs. Really, he’s more of a tertiary contributor, with more of a focus on incorporating him into the passing game lately. The Niners’ defense has swallowed opposing running backs whole, and CEH won’t have the touches to break free. Our projections reveal a significant edge in backing Edwards-Helaire to fall below 6.5 rushing yards.
Isiah Pacheco Higher 16.5 Rushing Attempts
One man’s loss is another man’s gain, which definitely applies to Kansas City’s backfield. Edwards-Helaire has taken a backseat in the game-planning, but only because Isiah Pacheco has been that dominant. The second-year pro has cemented himself as the premier Chiefs running back and will be a focal point of the offense at Allegiant Stadium.
Andy Reid is feeding Pacheco the ball religiously over the latter part of the campaign. The former seventh-round pick has totaled 63 touches over the past three games, reaching 24 rushing attempts in all but one of those contests. Pointing the lens further back reveals a similar workload, with Pacheco exceeding 16.5 carries in five of his last eight for an average of 18.0 rushing attempts per game.
As we saw against the Baltimore Ravens, Pacheco doesn’t have to be efficient to warrant the increased workload. The Rutgers alum mustered just 68 yards on 24 carries in the AFC Championship Game, illustrating Andy Reid’s commitment to keep feeding Pacheco and control the clock.
Kansas City isn’t getting away from the blueprint now. They’ve enjoyed a ton of success, unleashing Pacheco and his hard-running style against everybody. That usage has only increased in the playoffs. We’re anticipating more of the same in Super Bowl LVIII, with Pacheco soaring over 16.5 rushing attempts.
Travis Kelce Lower 7.0 Receptions
Coming off arguably his best playoff performance ever, it’s clear that Travis Kelce has shaken out of his regular season rut. The four-time All-Pro has hauled in 23-of-27 targets in the playoffs, for an 85.2% catch rate. However, regression is imminent, and the 49ers can facilitate that correction on Sunday.
Simply, Kelce can’t duplicate his 11-of-11 performance from the Championship Round. Only once this season has Kelce posted a 90% catch rate or better on double-digit targets. He followed that up with a 6-of-9 performance the next time out for just 58 receiving yards.
Moreover, Kelce’s playing history supports that he’s primed to fall flat on his face against the Niners. Throughout his career, Kelce has never followed up a 90% catch-rate performance on double-digit targets with another above-average performance. In fact, he’s averaging just 5.3 receptions per game, failing to surpass 7.0 catches in any of those outings.
NFC Championship notwithstanding, the 49ers have been effective at limiting opposing tight ends. Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave combined for 23 yards while hauling in six of 10 passes. That means that LaPorta is the only tight end to exceed five catches or 56 yards since Week 15 of the regular season.
All signs point toward Kelce putting forth an underwhelming performance. Our biggest edge is betting him to come in below 7.0 receptions.
