NFL Fantasy Pick'ems for Saints-Rams on Thursday Night Football

We’re ready to kick off Week 16 with a pivotal NFC showdown. The New Orleans Saints are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but they have an achievable path to the postseason. New Orleans has won two in a row to move into a tie for the lead in the NFC South. Additionally, they are sandwiched in a backlog of 7-7 teams, missing out on a wild card spot on the strength of a tiebreaker. Included in the group ahead of them is the Los Angeles Rams, the team they face on Thursday night. A win by either team solidifies their spot in the standings, giving them control of their own destiny in the playoff race.

This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.

Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.

Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.

And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.

Saints-Rams NFL Fantasy Pick’ems

Jamaal Williams Higher 18.5 Rushing Yards

Jamaal Williams’ production waned through the middle part of the season, but the Saints are starting to unleash their bruising back in the latter part of the campaign. Williams has combined for 67 rushing yards over his last two outings, and he’ll have plenty of room to move against an uninspired Rams rush defense.

Williams was never going to be the lead back for New Orleans, but at the outset of the season, we were expecting him to take on a more robust role than what we’ve seen. The former fourth-round pick didn’t play between Week 3 and Week 6, coming back to record just 74 yards over his next six outings.

Since then, we’ve seen Williams evolve into the change-of-pace back we expected him to be. The Saints are deploying Williams more frequently, feeding him the ball 19 times over the same two-game sample. In the six games prior, Williams touched the ball just 25 times, highlighting his resurgent profile in the Saints’ offense.

Coincidentally, Williams’ increased involvement correlates with a shift in offensive schemes. Over its last three games, New Orleans is running the ball on 50.3% of plays, a steep departure from their regular season average of 42.5%. More emphasis on the ground game necessitates more involvement from different players. It’s becoming increasingly evident that Williams is a player they are hoping to involve more.

LA sits in the middle of the pack, allowing 110.8 rushing yards per game. A heavy dose of the rushing attack should help Williams exceed 18.5 rushing yards.

Taysom Hill Higher 17.5 Rushing Yards

We are not limiting ourselves to just one Saints player going higher than their rushing projection. Quarterback/tight end/wildcat pivot Taysom Hill has worn many hats this year, but running the ball has been the fundamental part of his involvement. He’s coming off a disappointing outing in Week 15 but should put forth a renewed effort versus the Rams.

Hill had a lone carry against the New York Giants last week, mustering a singular yard. However, that’s been the outlier in an otherwise productive season for the Swiss Army knife. Hill is right in the pocket for career norm usage, averaging 5.5 rushing attempts per game.

Moreover, he’s averaging 26.7 yards per game, which is the low end of the spectrum for what we’ve come to expect from him. Over the last three seasons, Hill averaged 32.0 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry, an improvement on both benchmarks this year.

For many of the same reasons we like Williams to go above his rushing yards projection, we’re backing Hill to exceed 17.5. The Saints are running the ball more, the Rams have a lackluster rushing defense, and Hill is due for a bounce-back effort after last week’s poor showing.

Cooper Kupp Lower 70.5 Receiving Yards and Lower 6.0 Receptions

File this under the ‘hot take’ column; Cooper Kupp will struggle Thursday night against the Saints. That position seems particularly ballsy considering Kupp’s recent surge in production, but New Orleans’ pass defense is no joke, and Matthew Stafford is due for a letdown performance.

For the first time since his first two games of the season, Kupp has surpassed the century mark in receiving yards. Otherwise, it’s been a pretty ho-hum campaign for Kupp. The former All-Pro hasn’t eclipsed 49 receiving yards in any of his six other games, recording his lowest yards per game since 2020 and worst catch rate of his career.

Worse, Kupp’s ceiling depends on Stafford’s ability, and the outlook is not good. Stafford has completed 59.5% of passes or worse in five of his past seven, averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Those metrics aren’t going to hold up against a ferocious Saints defense that allows the sixth-fewest passing yards and second-lowest completion percentage.

Unfortunately for Rams fans, Kupp is a regression candidate. He’s inflated his metrics beyond sustainable levels, and he should start falling back down to earth on Thursday Night Football. We’re betting he falls below 70.5 receiving yards and 6.0 receptions against the Saints.

Matthew Stafford Lower 21.5 Completions

As a derivative of Kupp’s projections, we’re elaborating on Stafford’s recent woes and taking him to go lower than 21.5 completions at home.

Although Stafford has helped the Rams win games, he hasn’t been a top-end QB. Despite having a plethora of elite pass-catchers, Stafford has totaled the 12th-most passing yards, putting him behind the likes of Sam Howell, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love. His 61.4% completion percentage is even more worrisome, putting him 27th in the league and tying him with the often-maligned Justin Fields.

Three of the last four quarterbacks the Saints have faced have been held to 16 completions or fewer. And most of those pivots have better metrics than Stafford. New Orleans is better at defending the pass than most other teams in the league, and they will play a vital role in facilitating Stafford’s regression on Thursday night. The Rams signal-caller faces a stiff challenge in exceeding 21.5 completions, a mark we’re expecting him to fall under.

This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.

Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.

Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.

And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.