The football schedule-makers did us a solid in Week 2, serving up not one, but two Monday nighters. First, the New Orleans Saints travel to take on the Carolina Panthers, with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Cleveland Browns in the later contest. Divisional matchups mean so much toward playoff berths, so expect all four teams to be ready to go on Monday night.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Monday Night Football NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Najee Harris Higher 52.5 Rushing Yards
Week 1 couldn’t have gone much worse for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Home to perennial Super Bowl contenders, the San Francisco 49ers, the Steelers fell flat on their faces. Thankfully, they can pick themselves up with another key home game against a divisional rival.
Down early against the 49ers, Pittsburgh’s run game took a backseat as the hosts tried to make up ground from the outset. Expect Mike Tomlin to deploy Najee Harris more regularly against the Browns, using the rushing attack to set up the pass.
Although Cleveland stuffed the run in their season-opening win against the Cincinnati Bengals, they’ll have a hard time replicating that standard on the road. The Browns allowed an average of 135.0 rushing yards per game last season, the eighth-most in the NFL.
Moreover, Harris has torched the Browns at Acrisure Stadium. In two home starts, Harris has totaled 286 rushing yards on 51 carries for an average of 5.6 yards per carry.
A more involved rushing attack is premised on a heavier workload for Harris. Consequently, we like him to go higher than the 52.5 rushing yards needed.
Kenny Pickett Higher 18.5 Completions
Even with a diminished emphasis on the passing game, Kenny Pickett’s props are too low for our liking. Pickett enters the AFC North showdown with a modest 18.5 completion prop, well below where we expect him to finish.
Pickett threw the ball 46 times in Week 1’s loss to the Niners. Still, the most impressive feat was his ability to complete 67.4% of his throws. Finding open pass catchers has been one of Pickett’s biggest strengths and helps him go north of his total versus the Browns. His solid completion percentage is an asset Pickett has exhibited since he landed in the Steel City. In 14 games, all but one of which was a start, Pickett is completing 63.4% of his passes.
Thirty-one appears to be the magic number for Pickett. When he attempts more than 30 passes, the former Pittsburgh Panther has exceeded 25 completions in every game. Further, the math checks out for Monday’s contest. Pickett’s career completion percentage of 63.4% would necessitate 31 throws for the Steelers QB to go higher than his 18.5 threshold.
Pittsburgh can’t afford to fall into an 0-2 hole this early in the season. Especially with both losses coming at home. Pickett will be called upon and is expected to deliver on primetime.
Look for him to go higher than his completion projection.
Jonathan Mingo Higher 28.5 Receiving Yards
With his first career start under his belt, the Bryce Young era is officially underway for the Carolina Panthers. Young opened up the season with a road loss to the Atlanta Falcons but gets his first taste of primetime home action on Monday. We saw Young spread the ball to his receivers in Week 1, a standard he should maintain early this season.
Rookie wide receiver Jonathan Mingo was an integral part of the Panthers’ aerial assault against the Falcons. The second-round pick played 87.0% of the offensive snaps, earning a more modest 13.2% target share. Although Mingo didn’t deliver an exceptional fantasy performance, we expect him to improve on that standard in Week 2.
There are a few factors working in his favor. First, Mingo has the first-game jitters out of the way. Second, he’s in a better environment, playing in front of the home faithful. But, most importantly, with DJ Chark still listed as questionable, Mingo’s poised to play a similar role against the Saints.
We’re expecting Mingo to make the most of his opportunities at home in Week 2. Playing at home comes with a unique set of advantages in the NFL, and it’s clear that Young is making Mingo a priority in the passing game. An improved catch rate should help Mingo go higher than his receiving yards projection.
Juwan Johnson Higher 23.5 Receiving Yards
For the first time in a few years, New Orleans has a regular quarterback under center. No trickery, or tomfoolery, or distraction plays. Just Derek Carr doing his best to move the offense down the field. He had some success with that in Week 1, and the Saints should be marching again tonight.
Last week, Carr distributed the ball to a handful of pass catchers against the Tennessee Titans. Among those is Juwan Johnson, who remains a primary target in the Saints passing game. Johnson played 75.4% of the snaps, with Carr throwing his way on 15.2% of throws.
However, we could see Johnson take on a more robust role throughout the campaign. In 2022, the Saints tight end was targetted 19.2% of the time, setting career-best metrics across the board. Carr also has a tendency to look his tight ends way with regular frequency.
Both of those factors are playing into Johnson going above 23.5 receiving yards. But it’s also worth noting that Kyle Pitts led the Falcons in receiving yards in Week 1 against the Panthers.
Don’t be surprised if Johnson duplicates that feat.
