Two division leaders face a crucial test on Sunday Night Football. The AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens are looking to solidify their standing atop the conference against the leaders of the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars. It may be December, but Jacksonville is feeling the heat these days, fending off challenges from the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans from within the division. With a win, the Jaguars move within striking distance of the Ravens for AFC supremacy. But a loss could put them in a three-way tie with the Colts and Texans with just a few games left in the season.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.
And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.
Ravens-Jaguars NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Trevor Lawrence Higher 13.5 Rushing Yards
For the Jaguars to emerge victorious, they will need Trevor Lawrence to be at his best. The franchise quarterback has been a difference maker for most of the season, occasionally mixing in a few duds throughout the campaign. A pronounced trend has emerged between those efforts, tying into his rushing-yards projection on SNF.
Specifically, Jacksonville is at its best when Lawrence is capturing yards with his feet. In eight wins this season, the Jags QB is averaging 24.4 rushing yards per game. In five losses, that number gets cut in half to 12.8. There’s also a difference in the number of carries, albeit slightly less noticeable than his rushing yards. In wins, Lawrence takes off an average of 5.1 times per game; in losses, that falls to 3.6.
Moreover, Baltimore’s rush defense hasn’t lived up to its reputation as an elite unit. The Ravens allow a middling 104.2 rushing yards per game, plummeting to 132.0 over their last four. Those weaknesses could be exposed further by playing in a hostile environment in primetime.
The Jaguars are at their best when Lawrence is running the ball. That cause is aided by the Ravens’ recent downturn in defensive metrics, as they continue to get trampled by opponents. Our projections reveal a bettor-friendly advantage in taking Lawrence to exceed 13.5 rushing yards. That position is validated by some of the recent trends we’ve noted.
Calvin Ridley Higher 48.5 Receiving Yards
The Jaguars knew what they were getting themselves into when they traded for Calvin Ridley. Jacksonville traded for the former first-round pick in the middle of last season, knowing that Ridley would be unavailable until at least the start of the 2023 campaign. Ridley has rewarded that allegiance by becoming one of the top pass catchers on the team. He’s been a high-volume target for Lawrence, and the speedster should have a sufficient workload to exceed his receiving-yards projection versus the Ravens.
Lawrence has incorporated Ridley into all aspects of the Jaguars aerial assault. The wideout sits second in receiving yards and targets, falling to third on the team in receptions. Through 13 games this season, Ridley has earned a 20.8% target share, a number that should continue to increase without Christian Kirk in the lineup.
Kirk went down with an injury a couple of weeks ago, leaving a void in the passing attack. The injured wideout ranks third on the team in targets and second in receptions, which yielded the most receiving yards and the second-most yards per reception.
Last week’s effort may have given us an indication of what to expect from Ridley over the coming games. Without Kirk in the lineup, Ridley moved to the top of the progression charts, soaking up 13 targets in last week’s loss. That was the third time this season that he hit double digits in targets and the third time in four games in which he had at least 53 receiving yards. The outlook for tonight’s contest is promising, and Ridley should respond appropriately.
Gus Edwards Lower 8.5 Rushing Attempts
Our final pick takes us to the other bench, pointing toward Gus Edwards to fall short of his rushing-yards projection against the Jags. Edwards has been a constant in the Ravens backfield, but Keaton Mitchell has declared himself king of that castle, resulting in a downturn in Edwards’ involvement. That trend hurts his ceiling against the Jags, leading us to believe Edwards fails to record 8.5 rushing attempts Sunday night.
Mitchell’s involvement on offense is a more recent phenomenon. After not playing in the first five games of the season, the rookie out of East Carolina has played in seven of the past eight. Over that stretch, Mitchell has seen an increase in snap count, being on the field for at least 33.0% of offensive plays in each of the last three. Before that modest sample, Mitchell hadn’t surpassed 24.0%.
Across that same span, we’ve seen less of Gus Edwards. The Miami product fell to 27.1% and 28.2% in each of his last two outings, ceding more work to Mitchell. Predictably, this correlates with less production, as Edwards has totaled a disappointing 41 yards on 14 carries in those outings.
Edwards is always there when the Ravens call upon him, but he’s getting tapped less often now that Mitchell’s involved. We’re not expecting that trend to change Sunday night, betting that Edwards falls below most of his rushing projections. Our biggest edge comes in betting that he falls beneath 8.5 rushing attempts.
