A favorite has another hefty spread to cover in Week 8’s finale. The NFC North-leading Detroit Lions host the perpetually struggling Las Vegas Raiders as -7.5 chalk on Monday night football. Still, the most notable line movement heading into this inter-conference battle is the total being bought up 2.5 points. The consensus opening line was 44.5, but as of Monday morning, most shops are dealing at 47. We would expect nothing less from a Lions squad averaging 31.0 points per game at home and a Raiders side giving up 27.0 as the visitors.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Raiders-Lions NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Josh Jacobs Higher 16.5 Rushing Attempts
Try as they may, Las Vegas’ ground game hasn’t been a strength this season. The Raiders continue to establish the run game early in contests before eventually being forced to abandon plans and throw the ball to try and keep up. But with a bell-cow like Josh Jacobs operating as the lead back, few players are getting carries other than him. Consequently, Jacobs’ workshare has been one of the constants in the Raiders offense.
Jacobs has totaled 17 or more rushing attempts in all but two of his seven outings this season. Over that stretch, the reigning All-Pro is averaging 16.9 carries per game, albeit with a slightly disappointing 49.6 yards. Thankfully, Jacobs will get to run through a paper-thin Lions front that has been shredded over the past few weeks.
The Baltimore Ravens trampled the Lions for 146 rushing yards in Week 8’s victory. It was a sad reminder of Detroit’s defensive woes last year, but also brought their three-game average up to 97.0, up from the 60.8 they were allowing through the first four games of the season.
If Las Vegas can get anything going on the ground, Jacobs is in for a season-best performance. The Lions have struggled to contain the rush lately, and Jacobs is due for an uptick in productivity.
The Raiders will continue to give Jacobs every chance to move the ball, and he should eclipse the 15.5 rushing attempts needed to go higher than his line.
Hunter Renfrow Higher 8.5 Receiving Yards
It’s hard to believe, but Hunter Renfrow is just two years removed from his Pro Bowl season. Back in 2021, the Raiders slot receiver went north of 1,000 receiving yards on 103 catches. He hasn’t re-captured that form in the two seasons since, but Renfrow’s also not as bad as his 8.5 receiving yards prop implies.
Renfrow doesn’t have the same chemistry with Jimmy Garopplo as other receivers do, but the Raiders are still trying to incorporate him into the offense. The 27-year-old has started of the Raiders’ last three games, playing at least 30.1% of snaps in five of the past six. Further, Renfrow has totaled 12 or more receiving yards in four of those outings, hauling in eight of his 12 targets.
The Lions also have a much looser standard against the pass. Opponents are averaging 240.6 passing yards per game this season, up to 268.3 over the previous three contests, both of which put Detroit in the bottom third of the NFL. Moreover, they also allow the 13th-most completions per game, with worse metrics in their pass-friendly confines of Ford Field.
All eyes will be on Davante Adams in this one, leaving Renfrow to fly under the radar again. He’s an unsuspecting candidate to go higher than his receiving yards, but Renfrow should see the targets to go over the modest total.
Jared Goff Higher 1.5 Rushing Yards
We are trying to pluck some more low-hanging fruit with our third prop pick. Jared Goff enters Monday night football with a very achievable 1.5 rushing yard prop. Although he’s not one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the league, we still like him to eclipse the mark against the Raiders.
Goff is your prototypical pocket passer. The 6’4″ pivot stands and delivers, perennially ranking as one of the highest volume passers in the NFL; however, we have seen him embrace the rushing attack and take yards when they are given. The Lions quarterback has rushed the ball at least two times in all but one of his last five games, trotting for at least three yards in all but two of those outings.
He’ll have opportunities to take off against a Raiders squad that gives quarterbacks room to move. In his first start in the NFL, Tyson Bagent ran for 24 yards on three carries against Las Vegas. Likewise, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love combined for 64 yards on 14 carries just a few weeks prior. Hell, even Mac Jones, who has the mobility of a fence post, tried running the ball against the Raiders.
Altogether, Las Vegas has struggled to contain quarterbacks, even those who are typically relegated to standing pat in the pocket. As such, we’re betting Goff recognizes the opportunities as they present themselves and runs for at least two yards on Monday night.
Jameson Williams Lower 26.5 Receiving Yards
You may have inferred as much from his receiving yards prop, but Jameson Williams has been a tertiary contributor for the Lions this year. Even with an injury to Amon-Ra St. Brown, we’re expecting Williams to take a backseat in the game planning and stay lower than 26.5 receiving yards.
Williams has been limited to three games this year, and the information we can scrape from the small sample size is underwhelming. The second-year pro has been targeted three times in two of his three outings, posting a lackluster 33.3% catch rate. The more concerning benchmark is that Williams is coming off a mind-numbing 0-for-6 performance in Week 8. Surely, failing to haul in any targets, let alone six of them, will get a receiver moved down the depth chart in a hurry.
More importantly, Goff has a stable of other targets that he can rely on and is turning to more frequently. Sam LaPorta has been a revelation since landing in the Motor City. Similarly, Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymon, and even Jahmyr Gibbs have earned more regular roles in the passing game.
With or without St. Brown, Williams is not a priority on offense. His less-than-stellar catch rate moves him to the back of the pack, while other pass-catchers are looked to more regularly. We have a hard time envisioning a scenario where Williams exceeds 26.5 receiving yards.
