If you looked at the Week 16 schedule a couple of months ago, it would have been easy to blow past the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos’ encounter. Both teams were on the outs, with neither looking like playoff contenders. Lo and behold, the Broncos made a run up the standings, winning six of their last eight to close the gap in the AFC. Alas, the Patriots continue to struggle, just trying to get to the end of the campaign with Bill Belichick’s reputation still intact. Saddle up and ride Broncos Nation; this is your chance to make some noise.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.
And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.
Patriots-Broncos NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Russell Wilson Higher 19.5 Rushing Yards
The Broncos wouldn’t be in this position if not for Russell Wilson. The veteran signal-caller has been a catalyst on offense, using his passing acumen and running ability to keep the Broncos moving. He’s been exceptional at home this year, using the thin mountain air of Mile High Stadium to his advantage and giving Wilson the edge he needs to surpass 19.5 rushing yards.
The Broncos remain in the playoff hunt, and that’s at least partly thanks to Wilson’s offensive contributions. The nine-time Pro Bowler has had a resurgent season in Denver, recapturing some of his former glory. It may have taken some time to get acclimated to the altitude difference, but we’re seeing vintage Wilson performances at the most crucial time of year.
Through 14 starts, the Broncos field general has already surpassed his rushing yardage total from each of the past two seasons. Predictably, that’s yielded an increase in yards per rushing attempt, with Wilson putting up his best average (5.4) since 2017 (5.7).
Mile High has been a safe haven for Wilson, and we’ve seen him use his friendly confines to his advantage. The former third-round pick has ran for at least 20 yards in five of his last six home games, averaging 31.8 over that stretch. As good as the Patriots have been defensively, they can’t compete with altitude. Wilson’s using his savvy veteran presence to take off under ideal situations and should have no problem catching the Pats off guard.
Editor’s note: This line has moved to 21.5.
Lucas Krull Higher 9.5 Receiving Yards
You’d be excused for not knowing Lucas Krull. The Broncos tight end has spent most of his first two professional seasons on practice-squad rosters, first with the New Orleans Saints and then this year in Denver. Krull was promoted to the active roster in November but has been here to stay since the start of December. In that time, we’ve seen him take on a more prominent role on offense, an upward trajectory we expect him to continue Sunday.
The former undrafted free agent has moved up Sean Payton’s depth chart. After not playing through the first eight weeks of the season, Krull has gradually increased his responsibilities. We saw him set career bests in several categories last week, including snap count and targets, showcasing his ceiling moving forward.
The Pats defense has been one of their lone bright spots this season, but they haven’t been particularly effective at defending the pass against tight ends. Last week, Travis Kelce hauled in five of seven targets for 28 yards, becoming the fourth tight end in three weeks to haul in multiple passes for at least 12 yards.
Krull is integrating himself into the Broncos offense, earning a bigger piece of the offensive pie. We wouldn’t be surprised to see him ratchet his usage metrics higher, but even if he doesn’t, Krull should have no problem exceeding his modest receiving-yards projection against the Pats.
Ezekiel Elliott Lower 31.5 Receiving Yards
Rhamondre Stevenson’s absence has allowed Ezekiel Elliott to expand his role in New England’s offense. The former All-Pro has been the feature back for the past few weeks, rekindling some of the magic that helped him rise to prominence. Unfortunately for Elliott and Pats fans, we’re anticipating some resistance in moving those metrics higher.
It’s evident in evaluating his metrics that Elliott’s best years are behind him. The 28-year-old is averaging a career-worst 3.6 yards per carry to go along with deteriorating receiving stats. At his peak, Elliott was averaging north of 11 yards per reception and five receptions per game. Now, he’s down to 6.9 yards per reception and 2.6 receptions per game.
Those benchmarks aren’t climbing higher against the Broncos D, especially at Mile High. Denver has limited opponents to an average of 202.6 passing yards per game, resulting in a top-10 9.3 yards per completion. Opposing running backs’ contributions have been minimal, with the last three teams they’ve faced combining for 59 receiving yards out of the backfield.
New England and Ezekiel Elliott deserve each other. Elliott’s play is analogous to what we’ve seen from the once-pround franchise, with neither able to extend their competitive window into 2023. Although they may try to get him the ball, we’re not expecting Elliott to accumulate more than 31.5 receiving yards in Denver.
