The NFC is an unforgiving minefield of playoff contenders. Heading into Sunday’s action, 11 teams are still in contention for the distinction of NFC Champions; however, there will be at least one less team vying for a berth following the clash between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are tied with identical 7-8 records, needing two wins and some help to sneak into a Wild Card spot. Unfortunately, whichever team drops Sunday night’s NFC North showdown will be left lamenting what could have been.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Packers-Vikings NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Alexander Mattison Higher 19.5 Rushing Yards
It was probably unfair of us to put so much pressure on Alexander Mattison at the outset of the season. The Vikings running back was expected to take up the mantle of Dalvin Cook, flourishing as the lead back in Minneapolis. Mattison hasn’t reached the heights many expected he would, but he’s also not as bad as we saw last week. That makes him a perfect buy-low candidate ahead of Sunday Night Football.
Mattison returned from an ankle injury last week, playing just five snaps and getting two carries against the Detroit Lions. Although his participation throughout the week was in question, Mattison was removed from the injury report on Friday, putting him back atop the depth chart for SNF.
Prior to missing Week 15, Mattison was getting a healthy workload out of the Vikings backfield. The fifth-year pro had at least 10 carries in five of his previous six outings, averaging 13.0 rushing attempts per game. More impressively, Mattison was trending upward with respect to production. He had eclipsed 52 rushing yards in all three games from Week 12 to 14 while averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Green Bay has been one of the worst teams in the league at defending the run. The Packers give up an average of 135.9 rushing yards per game, putting them bottom three in the NFL.
Mattison should be close to 100% in this one, and he should have no problem shredding the Packers at home. A bad showing last week has eroded his rushing total this week, a benchmark he should cruise past Sunday.
Jaren Hall Lower 20.5 Completions
After all that, the Vikings ended up right back where they started on their quarterback depth chart. When Kirk Cousins went down with a season-ending knee injury, Jaren Hall was the backup. Following that contest through, Minnesota’s brass went out and acquired Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs started a few games before falling out of favor, giving way to Nick Mullens. Mullens was benched following last week’s debacle against the Lions, leading the Vikings back to Hall.
The rookie pivot has been good when called upon, but he faces a steep learning curve against a decent Packers pass defense. Green Bay ranks in the top half of the league in passing yards allowed, limiting opposing QBs to a paltry 20.5 completions per game. Further, they’ve dialed up the pass rush intensity, sacking quarterbacks 13 times over their last five games.
Hall is an unproven commodity. It would be unwise for the Vikings to hitch their playoff hopes to a quarterback who has thrown just 10 passes in his NFL career. As such, we’re anticipating more involvement from their ground game and less reliance on Hall to move the team downfield.
Green Bay has been good at limiting opponents’ passing-game successes, and they should put enough pressure on Hall to force a few mistakes. But we’re also expecting Kevin O’Connell to scheme up ways to insulate his young signal caller against the Packers. We’re betting Hall stays below 20.5 completions when the dust settles on this one.
Jordan Love Higher 8.5 Rushing Yards
One player who has lived up to the hype, particularly as the season progressed, is Jordan Love. In his first season as a starter, the Packers quarterback kept his team in the playoff conversation, and he can move Green Bay closer to a playoff spot with another strong showing Sunday night.
Love has effectively moved the Packers downfield on a weekly basis, using his arms and legs to pick up yards. The Utah State product has 45 rushing attempts on the season, translating to 246 yards on 5.5 yards per carry. He’s been less involved in the ground game more recently, but Love has still eclipsed 10 rushing yards in three of his past five.
Although they’ve been stout for most of the year, the Vikings were exposed last week against the Lions. Detroit ran for 143 yards, becoming the second team in four weeks to surpass 117 rushing yards. Moreover, three different rushers broke off runs of at least eight yards last week, leaving the door open for a solid performance from Love.
This line varies depending on where you shop, but most spots have moved Love’s rushing total higher throughout the weekend. Anything under double digits is worth playing. Our projections put Love at 12.0 rushing yards, which could very well end up being a conservative estimation.