The New York Jets have an envious primetime schedule. A week after playing on Monday Night Football, the Jets are back for Sunday’s finale against the Las Vegas Raiders. Granted, a few things have changed since the NFL’s brass put together this year’s schedule, but it’s a glorious time for Jets fans and bettors alike. That’s because we have yet another breakdown of our top picks for tonight’s AFC showdown, pitting two playoff hopefuls against each other under the bright lights.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Jets-Raiders NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Josh Jacobs Higher 17.0 Rushing Attempts
It may only be one game, but the Las Vegas Raiders looked so much more comfortable under Antonio Pierce than they ever did with Josh McDaniels. The regime change may have impacted production, scoring, and morale, but some things remain very much unchanged. Specifically, Josh Jacobs’ usage in the Raiders offense.
Jacobs remains the focal point on offense. The reigning All-Pro leads the NFL in rushing attempts this season, seeing an increase in carries with rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell calling the shots. Last week, Jacobs set season highs in yards, carries and touchdowns, reaching 98, 26, and two, respectively.
He’ll have a chance to improve on that in Sunday’s battle against New York. The Jets have been one of the worst defenses at defending the run, allowing the third-most rushing yards on the most rushing attempts per game. It might be early in his tenure, but we trust Pierce a lot more than McDaniels to exploit those deficiencies.
Insulating O’Connell is the top priority, underscoring the importance of feeding Jacobs the ball. That’s even more true against the worst rush defense in the NFL. Jacobs might not have enough runway to get back into the All-Pro conversation, but he can further the Raiders’ cause against the Jets. You can expect him to go higher on any number of his props, but we’re going above 17.0 rushing attempts.
Michael Mayer Lower 21.5 Receiving Yards
Granted, O’Connell doesn’t have a ton of reps starting under center in the NFL, but we’ve noticed a correlation between O’Connell starting and Michael Mayer’s usage. Simply, O’Connell isn’t looking Mayer’s way in the passing game. Fewer targets will make it harder for the Raiders tight end to exceed 21.5 receiving yards.
In O’Connell’s first start back in Week 4, Mayer didn’t have one target despite playing an at-the-time, season-high 50.7% of offensive snaps. We saw similar metrics last week, when Mayer was on the field for 88.3% of plays, but he only had two passes thrown his way. Although he caught both targets, he mustered just 11 yards.
Davante Adams gets the lion’s share of passing attempts, and Jakobi Meyers has flashed an elite ceiling as a secondary option behind him. But there are only so many passes to go around, and with Jacobs taking on a more prominent role in Pierce’s offense, Mayer could be left by the wayside.
The Jets are also pretty adept at defending tight ends. Other than Dallas Goedert, no tight end has surpassed 26 receiving yards since Travis Kelce in Week 4. And even he was limited to 60 yards on six receptions.
All of those variables point toward Mayer staying beneath 21.5 receiving yards Sunday night.
Breece Hall Higher 17.5 Receiving Yards
How could you not be rooting for Breece Hall? The Jets running back tore his ACL halfway through last season, still making it back for the start of this season. We’ve seen just how dynamic Hall can be, and he should have plenty of space to shine against the Raiders.
Hall has been deployed as the primary rusher, but he’s flashed his every-down capability over his recent sample. The former Iowa State Cyclones star has taken on an amplified role in the passing game, and the Jets are better because of it. Over the last five games, Hall has totaled 21 catches and 170 yards on 25 targets. Those outlet passes are making a big difference for Zach Wilson, as the Jets have gone 3-2 over the five-game sample and 3-1-1 against the spread.
Moreover, Las Vegas has been ineffective at slowing down running backs in the passing game. Last week, Saquon Barkley caught three of four passes for 23 yards, setting the low mark among running backs since Week 5. Every other running back the Raiders have faced had at least 24 receiving yards, including D’Onta Foreman, who isn’t your prototypical pass-catching RB.
Hall doesn’t get enough credit for what he brings to the Jets offense. Although there are some other candidates ahead of him in the Comeback Player of the Year category, he would get our vote after what he’s accomplished this year. Wilson and the Jets will continue to rely on Hall, and we expect him to surpass 17.5 receiving yards in Week 10.
