The New York Jets may be eliminated from playoff contention, but they can still embrace the role of spoiler in Week 17. The Jets travel to the 216 for a showdown with the Cleveland Browns. Kevin Stefanski and crew are comfortably in a playoff spot, but they also haven’t lost sight of the AFC North lead. If they can close out the season with two wins and the Baltimore Ravens drop their last two, the Browns would usurp the Ravens for top spot in the division. Of course, that’s assuming the Jets don’t rain on their parade on Thursday Night Football.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Jets-Browns NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Joe Flacco Higher 233.5 Passing Yards and Higher 1.5 Touchdown Passes
The Browns have maneuvered their way around a messy quarterback situation this year. Four different signal callers have lined up under center, with each pivot experiencing varying degrees of success. Eventually, the Browns landed on Joe Flacco, and the former Super Bowl MVP has been a revelation since taking the reins.
Flacco has rekindled some of the magic that helped him lead the Ravens to Super Bowl XLVII. The 38-year-old has his best passer rating since 2014 (min. 50 pass attempts), averaging 326.8 passing yards per game, albeit with a more modest 59.4% completion percentage. Furthermore, Flacco has surpassed 253 passing yards in all four of his starts, eclipsing 310 in all but one of those.
Just as impressively, Flacco has dissected opposing secondaries with surgical precision. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in all of his outings, finding paydirt ten times already. Incorporating different pass catchers into his progressions has been a significant part of Flacco’s success. Last week, nine different Browns players caught passes from Flacco. That was the third time in four weeks that many players were involved in the aerial assault. Flacco will continue to spread out the ball, keeping opposing defenses guessing where the next pass might be thrown.
Depending on where you shop, you might be able to get a slightly better passing yard number. Regardless, we’re expecting the Browns QB to deliver another above-average performance. Similarly, he has enough firepower at his disposal that he should be able to eclipse 1.5 touchdown passes.
Jerome Ford Lower 12.5 Rushing Attempts
One of the unintended consequences of relying on an improved passing attack is less reliance on the ground game. Fewer carries are available to distribute between Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, leaving both players with diminished ceilings. We’re expecting that to continue on Thursday night, resulting in Ford falling below 12.5 rushing attempts.
Recognizing the difference it has made, Stefanski has unleashed Flacco and the passing game over the past few weeks. Since Week 13, Cleveland has been calling passing plays on 63.5% of their offensive snaps. Prior to Flacco taking over, that number was hovering around 54.0%. That’s a substantial deviation from previous play calling, substantially impacting the number of carries that are available to Ford.
Moreover, we’ve seen the Browns divide the workload more evenly between Ford and Hunt. Over the last four weeks, Ford has totaled 44 carries, with Hunt close behind at 36. Additionally, Ford has fallen below 12 carries in three of his four outings, an ominous indicator for him being able to exceed his rushing yards projection against the Jets.
We can’t forget about Pierre Strong, who has also emerged as a viable rusher out of the Browns backfield. The second-year pro has ten carries over the same four-game sample, eating into the limited workshare that’s available.
There are too many factors working against Ford in this one. The Browns have adapted their game planning to their quarterback, amplifying their passing game usage. With less work available to be distributed more evenly among three running backs, it’s unlikely Ford surpasses his rushing attempts projection on Thursday Night Football.
Elijah Moore Higher 3.0 Receptions
There’s an added narrative to our final play, as we highlight Elijah Moore to eclipse his receptions projection on Thursday night. Moore has been one of the more frequently targeted pass catchers since Flacco took over, and he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after he fell out of favor with his former squad.
Moore has been quick to build chemistry with his new quarterback. The third-year pro has absorbed 25 targets with Flacco under center, earning a top-three target share over that stretch. The knock against Moore is that he’s posted a disappointing catch rate of 44.0%, but that benchmark is expected to tick higher over his coming games. Before this recent slide, Moore was on pace for a career-best 58.9% catch rate, a level we’re expecting him to get back to.
We also can’t look past the Jets’ disastrous pass defense on the road. New York gives up a completion percentage of 69.1% as the visitors, dropping them from fourth in the league at home to 24th as the visitors. Those defensive woes could be exposed on a short week.
Moore has something to prove, both to his current and former teams. The Browns wide receiver has been one of Flacco’s preferred outlets, and we should start to see his catch rate work back up toward career norms. Taking on a Jets team that let him go and struggles on the road should facilitate some of that growth. We expect Moore to fly past three catches.
