If things get any messier, it’s going to take an MIT grad to calculate all the possible permutations of NFC playoff teams. The Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks can add to that beautiful disaster following their Monday Night Football showdown at Lumen Field.
With a win, the Seahawks will move to 7-7, tying them with five other conference foes. The drama doesn’t end there, as the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys are locked in a cage match for NFC East supremacy. Whatever the result, there will be no shortage of drama over the final few weeks of the season.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.
And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.
Eagles-Seahawks NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Kenneth Gainwell Higher 8.5 Receiving Yards
One of Philadelphia’s biggest strengths is being able to incorporate different playmakers, depending on schemes and game-planning. That’s allowed several players to carve out niche roles with the team, using their limited time on the field to make big differences. Kenneth Gainwell stands among those, serving as an above-average pass-catching running back.
Gainwell has been used in a limited capacity this season but almost exclusively on pass-catching downs. The third-year pro is fifth on the team in targets, translating the 28 passes thrown his way into 23 catches and 130 yards. That has resulted in an 82.1% catch rate and 5.7 yards per reception, putting him on the top end of the spectrum.
The Seahawks are guilty of losing sight of running backs via the passing game. Although Christian McCaffrey was held to just one reception on one target last week, five different running backs in the four preceding weeks had accumulated at least 15 receiving yards versus Seattle. Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, and Darrell Henderson stand out among that sample, going off for 119, 42, and 28, respectively.
Gainwell has a spot in this offense, and the Eagles will have to include him if they hope to escape this hostile environment with a win.
His receiving yards projection is too low for our liking, as we’re betting he eclipses 8.5 yards in this one.
Dallas Goedert Lower 41.5 Receiving Yards
One Eagles player whose production has taken a bit of a hit this season is Dallas Goedert. Injuries have played a role in his diminished output, but the Eagles are also deploying their tight end a little differently in 2023. We’re anticipating another subdued performance from Goedert against Seattle.
All of Goedert’s metrics have dropped from his recent averages. His yards per reception has dipped to 10.5, the lowest it’s been since 2019. Likewise, his yards per game has fallen to 62.5, a low point since 2020, with decreases in his catch rate and receptions per game compared to year-over-year stats.
That dry spell has become even more evident over Goedert’s recent sample. Over his last three games, the former second-round pick has 116 yards on 11 catches, falling below 36 receiving yards in two of his three outings.
As is typically the case, Goedert’s production dips on the road. His yards per reception and catch rate drop, adding another barrier to his ability to surpass his receiving yards against the Seahawks.
According to our projections, there’s an edge in backing Goedert to fall below 41.5 receiving yards on Monday night. In reconciling that with his current form and underlying metrics, we’re adding it as one of our preferred plays tonight.
Noah Fant Lower 19.5 Receiving Yards
Goedert isn’t the only tight end who projects to fall short of his receiving yards. Seahawks tight end Noah Fant is also included on that list. Fant has been an afterthought on offense, putting up disappointing metrics when Geno Smith does throw his way. He’ll have a hard time disproving those shortcomings against a fierce Eagles defensive front.
Fant’s stat page reads like an “in case of emergency, break glass” profile. His 7.1% target share is arguably the most telling metric, but his 2.5 targets per game also put him in a tie with Zach Charbonet for fifth on the team. It’s clear that Smith and Pete Carrol are prioritizing other players in the passing game, and that’s unlikely to change against Philadelphia.
We’ve also seen deteriorating output from Fant as the year drags on. Over his last seven games, Fant has been targeted 19 times, roughly aligning with his season-long per-game averages. However, we see the bottom fall out of his production, with Fant posting a disappointing 63.2% catch rate over that stretch, with an average of 7.6 yards per target.
For the past few seasons, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have commanded the lion’s share of targets in the passing game. But with the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Charbonet on offense, there are even fewer looks to distribute to Fant. Although he may soak a few targets throughout the evening, we don’t think it’ll be enough to help him exceed the 19.5 receiving yards needed to go higher than his projection.
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