For the first time ever, NFL enthusiasts get to enjoy a Black Friday matchup. The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets have the honor, with Robert Saleh’s crew hosting the division leaders at MetLife Stadium. The Jets offense has struggled over its recent sample, dropping three straight decisions while combining to score 24 points across those contests. They’ll have a hard time keeping pace with a Dolphins side that averages 30.5 points per game.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Dolphins-Jets NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Breece Hall Lower 13.5 Rushing Attempts
Things were looking good for Breece Hall early in the season. The Jets running back opened the season with a 10-carry, 127-yard performance in Week 1, following that up with another 177-yard effort in Week 5. However, that’s been the pinnacle of Hall’s success in 2023, and that’s unlikely to change on Friday.
Constantly playing from behind, the Jets haven’t had the luxury of running the ball. New York calls the fourth-fewest rushing plays in the NFL, turning to the ground game just 36.4% of the time. Even as the primary back, that doesn’t afford Hall the necessary workload to eclipse his rushing attempts prop against the Dolphins.
The former Iowa State Cyclone has surpassed 13 rushing attempts just twice this season, including once over the last five weeks. Moreover, he’s been completely ineffective when given the rock, leaving Saleh no choice but to turn to his passing attack. Hall has mustered a disappointing 2.5 yards per carry over the same five-game sample.
Don’t expect anything different in this one. The Jets will likely find themselves in a deficit early, needing to turn their passing attack loose to try and keep up. As such, Hall’s contributions to the ground game will be minimal, and he should fall below 13.5 rushing attempts.
Tyler Conklin Lower 25.5 Receiving Yards
The Aaron Rodgers era lasted just a few snaps. Some would argue that Zach Wilson’s tenure lasted a few too many. Regardless, now it’s Tim Boyle’s time to shine. It’s a necessary change, maybe, but one that will ultimately come at the expense of the Jets’ passing attack. One of the pass-catchers who will undoubtedly be impacted is Tyler Conklin.
The Jets tight end was an afterthought in Boyle’s progression charts last week. Conklin soaked three targets, absorbing two of those for 18 yards. That was the third time in five weeks that Conklin fell below 25 passing yards, a trend he won’t buck with Boyle under center.
We also can’t look past the Dolphins’ improved pass defense. Miami has held its last three opponents to a combined 575 yards through the air, or just 191.7 passing yards per game. Included in that sample is a Week 9 contest in which they held Travis Kelce to a minuscule 14 receiving yards on three catches.
If Kelce and the Chiefs can’t get anything going against the Dolphins, then what chance do Boyle and Conklin have? Our projections reveal a notable advantage in taking Conklin to go lower than 25.5 receiving yards, an edge we’re not passing up.
Tua Tagovailoa Lower 2.5 Rushing Attempts and Lower 3.5 Rushing Yards
Rushing the ball has never been at the top of Tua Tagovailoa’s priority chart. The fourth-year pro peaked with 42 rushing attempts back in 2021, falling to 23 in limited action last year and 25 through ten games this season. Additionally, he’s seen a decrease in his effectiveness on the ground, going from 3.0 yards per carry in 2021 and 2022 to 1.6 this year. Tagovailoa should have no urgency to get out and run against the Jets, leaving him below his rushing attempts and yards props.
There is no shortage of playmakers in the Dolphins’ lineup. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle remain the go-to receivers in the aerial assault, while Raheem Mostert has performed exceptionally without De’Von Achane to share the backfield with. Still, Jeff Wilson Jr. has been a solid tertiary contributor with Achane unavailable. That’s without even considering the stable of tight ends that Tagovailoa can distribute the ball to. But the point is made. Miami doesn’t need Tagovailoa to do it all himself, considering the number of top-tier players they can turn to.
Injury history plays a vital role in Tagovailoa’s usage, as well. With his history of head injuries and the Dolphins’ inability to properly manage them, there’s less emphasis on getting Tagovailoa outside of coverage, and more susceptible to injuries. That’s particularly true against a punishing Jets’ defense that can make open-field tackles.
Miami enters this AFC East showdown as prohibitive -9.5 chalk. If the game goes as many are expecting, there will be no need for Tagovailoa to step out of the pocket and get yards with his legs. Instead, he can distribute the ball to his playmakers and watch them go to work.
We’re betting Tagovailoa falls beneath both of his rushing lines.
