It might be too soon to call this a potential Super Bowl LVIII preview, but we wouldn’t be surprised the way these teams are playing early this season. The defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles host the upstart Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football, with both squads looking to maintain their torrid start to the season. Miami is the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 37.2 points per game. The Eagles aren’t far behind offensively, but they have a much more imposing defensive front. Those strengths collide in what should be an entertaining interconference affair.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Dolphins-Eagles NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Raheem Mostert Lower 12.5 Rushing Attempts
It is seemingly impossible to get the run game going against the Eagles defense. Philadelphia allows the fewest rush attempts and second-fewest yards in the NFL, hampering the Dolphins’ chances of getting anything going on the ground. On that basis, we’re expecting them to lean into their passing game, resulting in fewer carries for Raheem Mostert.
Even with big leads against suboptimal defenses, the Dolphins don’t feed Mostert with any regularity. The former Purdue Boilermaker has been limited to 13 or fewer carries in four of his six outings, staying beneath 10 in two of his past three.
It doesn’t help that the Dolphins have a stable of running backs that they can give the ball to. Even with De’Von Achane out, Chris Brooks and Salvon Ahmed factored into the game-planning, with each running back accounting for six carries. That’s been a hallmark of Mike McDaniel’s offense as he trots out different personnel to keep defenses on their toes, and now Jeff Wilson Jr. returns from injury.
There’s no fixing what isn’t broken, and the Dolphins will continue to turn to their passing attack against the Eagles. Mostert will be the lead back, but his workload in the ground game will likely take a hit as Miami avoids playing into one of Philadelphia’s many strengths. Mostert will be a factor, but we’re betting he stays beneath 12.5 carries.
Raheem Mostert Higher 15.5 Receiving Yards
With an increased emphasis on the passing game, several Dolphins pass catchers are potentially poised for big games. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will continue to draw the ire of defenses, but Mostert is expanding his role with the ‘Fins. We like his chances to get in on the action and go north of 15.5 receiving yards.
A few factors point to Mostert delivering top-end reception metrics against the Eagles. First, he’s taken on an increased role in the passing game. The Dolphins running back has been targeted 17 times over the last four games, representing a modest, albeit improved, 13.6% target share. More importantly, Mostert is making the most of those looks. He’s hauled in all but two of those passes for an elite 88.2% catch rate.
The last factor we’re honing in on is Mostert’s yards after catch. The 31-year-old ranks 13th in the AFC, gaining 164 YAC yards. That puts him ahead of the likes of Stefon Diggs, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers, highlighting his elite catch-and-run ability.
Practically, these factors have resulted in 126 receiving yards over Mostert’s last four games. Moreover, he’s gone over 15.5 receiving yards in all but one of those contests.
Philadelphia’s defense will prioritize Hill and Waddle in coverage, leaving Mostert as a default outlet for Tua Tagaovailoa. We trust him to eat up yardage after getting the ball, and Mostert should have no problem exceeding 15.5 receiving yards.
Jalen Hurts Lower 262.5 Passing Yards
The Eagles remain committed to the run, but we’ve seen an uptick in their passing game usage this season. Jalen Hurts has at least 37 pass attempts in each of his previous four outings, setting a season-high with 45 last week against the New York Jets. Expect Philadelphia to get back to the ground game Sunday night, easing Hurts’ workload against the Dolphins. The unintended consequence of this supports that Hurts should stay lower than 262.5 passing yards.
Last year, the Eagles threw the ball 50.3% of the time, with this year’s benchmark inching up to 53.1%. That’s not a substantial deviation, but it is a steep departure from the 68.1% rate we saw against the Jets in Week 6. Between D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Hurts, we’re anticipating a more robust rushing attack Sunday night.
Further, Philly enters the interconference battle as three-point favorites. That betting confidence implies that the Eagles should be playing with the lead. Keeping the ball out of the Dolphins’ hands could be the surest way of marching to victory. Nick Sirianni continues to match wits with the best in the league, and he should get back to the rushing attack to keep the Dolphins grounded.
Natural regression impacts Hurts’ chances of reaching his projections against the Dolphins, but game planning also works against him. Philadelphia will look to control the clock, keeping its offense on the field with the run game and preventing Miami from gaining any offensive momentum. This will be the first time since Week 2 that Hurts throws for fewer than 262.5 yards.
