Championship Sunday is nearly set. The Baltimore Ravens punched their ticket to the AFC title bout, with the San Francisco 49ers claiming a berth in the NFC title game. They await the winner of Sunday’s matchups, featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the Detroit Lions followed by the Buffalo Bills hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. Both home teams enter their respective contests as favorites, but neither is expected to run away with a win. The Lions are priced as six-point favorites, with the Bills sitting at a more modest -3.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Divisional Round Sunday NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Chris Godwin Lower 63.5 Receiving Yards
You wouldn’t be wrong for thinking the Bucs are going to lean into their passing attack against the Lions. Detroit has one of the leakiest secondaries in the NFL, and they’ve gotten worse as the season progressed. However, we’re not expecting Chris Godwin to be a primary target on the road. Consequently, we’re taking a stance on him going lower than 63.5 receiving yards.
Godwin has taken a back seat to a few other Buccaneers pass catchers lately. Over their three games, Godwin has totaled 17 targets, surpassing five in a game just once over that modest stretch. As expected, Godwin’s yardage has taken a hit with his diminished target share. The 27-year-old has just 177 receiving yards across those three outings, falling below 51 in two of three.
Limited production has been a theme for Godwin all season. He’s surpassed 63.5 receiving yards just six times this season, including just three times over the last 12 weeks. That’s going to hold him back again in the Divisional Round against the Lions.
Mike Evans and Cade Otton have both been prioritized ahead of Godwin in the Buccaneers passing game. With fewer targets and less production, we’re not expecting Godwin to eclipse his receiving-yards total Sunday.
David Montgomery Higher 6.5 Receiving Yards
The Lions running back duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs deserves a lot of credit for their contributions to the Lions’ success this season. Montgomery has driven the ground game, while Gibbs has been deployed primarily as the pass-catching back. Inevitably, Montgomery has been asked to step up in the passing game, and he typically responds with strong showings.
Usage-wise, the Lions are turning to Montgomery more frequently early in the playoffs. The fifth-year pro was on the field for 53.6% of snaps in the opening-round win over the Los Angeles Rams, outplaying Gibbs by nearly 20.0%. Dan Campbell appears to be favoring Montgomery’s experience in the postseason, and he will need him at his best against an accomplished Bucs side.
Moreover, Montgomery has been a more reliable target for Jared Goff in the latter part of the campaign. After dropping six of the first 15 passes thrown his way, Montgomery has responded by catching eight of the last 10. Further, he’s exceeded 11 receiving yards in three of those five contests.
The Bucs constantly lose running backs in coverage. Last week, D’Andre Swift went off for 32 yards on four receptions, with Kenneth Gainwell adding 10 more yards on two catches. Montgomery and Gibbs will become the next tandem to burn the Bucs, with the former exceeding his 6.5 receiving-yards projection at home.
Patrick Mahomes Lower 27.5 Rushing Yards
This season hasn’t been kind to Patrick Mahomes. We were anticipating some regression from the reigning MVP, but we weren’t expecting him to fall as hard as he did. Mahomes’ passing and rushing metrics both took a hit in 2023, and neither are expected to rebound in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Passing metrics notwithstanding, some of Mahomes’ rushing metrics eroded this year. The six-time Pro Bowler set a three-year low in yards per rushing attempt, falling to 5.2 from his two-year average of 5.9. Additionally, we’ve seen a more reserved Mahomes over the last half of the season. The Chiefs signal caller has fallen below 27.5 rushing yards in five of his last seven, watching his yards per carry dip to 4.6.
The Bills have tightened their defensive standard more recently. They’ve held their last six opponents to 108 rushing yards or fewer, for a sterling average of 97.7 per game. Included in that sample is a Week 14 showdown with the Chiefs, in which they held Mahomes to just eight rushing yards. Further, only one opposing quarterback ran for more than 27 yards over that stretch.
Mahomes’ struggles will continue Sunday, and he falls below 27.5 rushing yards against the Bills.
James Cook Higher 62.5 Rushing Yards
Possession means so much in the playoffs, and the Bills have used that to their advantage. Buffalo held onto the ball for over 34 minutes in the Wild Card Round, the fifth time in six games they out-possessed their opponents. James Cook has been an integral part of that strategy, and we expect him to maintain his solid metrics in a must-win showdown at Highmark Stadium.
Arguably, the end of the campaign has been Cook’s best stretch of the season. Over his last five games, the 2022 second-round pick is averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game. Although 179 of those yards came in a 31-10 beatdown of the Dallas Cowboys, Cook has exceeded 70 rushing yards in three of those five outings. Improved production has yielded Cook more carries, with the Bills halfback averaging 18.4 rushing attempts per game over that five-game sample.
Kansas City hasn’t excelled at stopping the run this season, allowing an average of 111.2 rushing yards per game. Cook could expose those shortcomings in the Divisional Round, eclipsing the 62.5 needed to send him over his rushing-yards projection.
