The first of two Divisional Round matchups get underway on Saturday. First, the top-ranked Baltimore Ravens host the Houston Texans in an AFC showdown, followed by a clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers. Not surprisingly, both guests face steep odds. The Texans head to M&T Bank Stadium as +9.5 underdogs, identical to the odds the Packers face in the Bay Area. Nevertheless, there are actionable pick’em plays for all teams on Saturday.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Divisional Round Saturday NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
C.J. Stroud Higher 8.5 Rushing Yards
C.J. Stroud has been relatively stationary to begin his NFL career, particularly over the latter part of the campaign. However, if he hopes to march his team to the next round, the rookie is going to have to find ways to get his team downfield. That includes using his legs to pick up yards.
Stroud has just 25 rushing yards on five carries across his last four outings. Although it’s tempting to get lost in his lack of production, there’s another angle worth exploring. Nearly half of Stroud’s 167 rushing yards have come in just six losses. The Ohio State product has a tendency to take off on the ground when needed, boosting his yards per game from 9.3 in wins to 13.8 in losses. Predictably, this has also yielded a boost in yards per carry from 3.7 in wins to 5.2 in losses.
The Ravens’ vaunted defense has very few weaknesses, but one of them is defending the run against quarterbacks. In the last game that all the starters played, Tua Tagovailoa accumulated 14 yards on two carries. More concerningly, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence had gone off for 47 and 41 yards, respectively, both of which were among their best rushing efforts of the season.
There are few holes in the Ravens defense, but it will be up to Stroud to find them. We’re betting he goes north of 8.5 rushing yards on Saturday.
Nelson Agholor Higher 14.5 Receiving Yards
It’s probably not fair to base Nelson Agholor’s ceiling on Baltimore’s regular-season finale. With the top seed already locked up, the Ravens turned to their reserve players, affording their starters an extra week of rest before the Divisional Round. Still, Agholor has been trending upward after a mid-season lull, a direction he should continue against the Texans.
Week 18 notwithstanding, the Ravens have been getting Agholor the ball more frequently. The veteran wideout had been targeted 15 times across the previous six outings, hauling in 12 of those throws for a dynamite 80.0% catch rate. But Agholor’s best asset is his ability to stretch the field. He’s averaging 9.8 yards per reception over that stretch, equaling 19.7 yards per game.
Houston doesn’t have the best track record of slowing down opponents’ passing attack. The Texans allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game this season. That’s not including the 268 they gave up at home last week against the Cleveland Browns.
Agholor only needs one or two receptions to exceed his modest receiving yards projection, and we think he gets there. Pretty easily, in fact.
Christian Watson Lower 28.5 Receiving Yards
A month away from the team to deal with a recurring hamstring injury has negatively impacted Watson’s standing with the Packers. Before going down with the injury, he had started nine games in a row, cementing himself as a top receiving option. Since then, Watson has been usurped on the depth chart, hurting his chances of making a significant impact in the Divisional Round.
Watson was used sparingly in the Wild Card Round, seeing only one target while playing 41.1% of snaps. We’re not anticipating those metrics to improve substantially against a stingy Niners defense. After a disappointing start to the season, San Francisco has pulled itself up by its britches, limiting its last three opponents to 184.3 passing yards per game and a decreased 65.5% completion percentage.
Jordan Love has established a secure connection with Romeo Doubs while also showing a preference for tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. Watson is left fighting for targets with a stable of other pass-catchers, also facing a stiffer challenge against an elite pass defense in a hostile environment. As such, 28.5 receiving yards is too big of an ask for Watson, and we like him to come in below that number.
Kyle Juszczyk Higher 0.5 Receptions
There aren’t too many scenarios where a player’s reception projection is going to be identical to his receiving yards total, but that’s the scenario facing Kyle Juszczyk on Saturday night. The 49ers fullback needs just one catch or one yard to surpass either total, but at the risk of Juszczyk catching a pass and failing to get past the line of scrimmage, we’re taking him to go higher than 0.5 receptions.
Juszczyk isn’t an every-down kind of back, but he gets a lot of play out of the Niners’ backfield. The eight-time Pro Bowler and former All-Pro has played at least 42% of snaps in 12 of his 17 appearances this season, starting all but one of those games. Additionally, he’s been a regular in the passing attack, soaking targets in eight of his last 13 outings. Over that stretch, Juszczyk has posted a notable 82.4% catch rate with 14 receptions, including six in the four games since Week 15.
Green Bay was absolutely torched last week by the Cowboys’ passing attack. The Packers gave up 387 yards through the air, with Dallas running backs accounting for nine receptions and 43 yards.
There are more star-studded plays available, but we always like the reliability of a Pro Bowl fullback to deliver in the clutch. Juszczyk can rumble, and the stadium is going to erupt if he breaks off any big play. If nothing else, we should at least expect him to haul in any targets thrown his way and go over 0.5 receptions.
