The stakes have never been higher for the four remaining franchises still competing for football’s ultimate prize. Championship Sunday is the penultimate day of the NFL season, narrowing the field down to two competitors for Super Bowl LVIII. The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to defend their title, needing to get past the Baltimore Ravens as 4.5-point underdogs in the AFC half of the bracket. Likewise, the Detroit Lions face long odds as they travel to the Bay Area for an NFC tilt versus the San Francisco 49ers as 7.5-point dogs. Whichever teams emerge will have two weeks off before reconvening in Las Vegas for the grand finale.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Championship Sunday NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Isaiah Likely Lower 22.5 Receiving Yards
The Ravens have their work cut out for them as they try to dethrone the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Although K.C. gets a lot of credit for its high-octane offense, the Chiefs defense has done a lot of heavy lifting over the latter part of the campaign. We’re expecting their defense to be at its best as they try to knock off the Ravens in their friendly confines.
Thankfully for Ravens fans, their offense gets a significant boost as they welcome Mark Andrews back into the fold for Sunday’s contest. The Ravens activated their former All-Pro tight end Saturday, meaning Isaiah Likely will be shuffled down the depth chart. Still, his passing projections haven’t taken as big of a hit as we were expecting, leaving an edge in taking him to go lower than 22.5 receiving yards.
Moreover, Likely’s underlying metrics point toward diminished production against the Chiefs. Despite appearing in every game this season, the Ravens’ backup tight end ranks sixth on the team in targets. His 8.1% target share plainly illustrates his standing in Lamar Jackson’s progressions. Worse, Likely hasn’t exceeded two catches in any of his last three outings, without competing with Andrews for snaps.
Likely’s outlook appears even bleaker when we factor in Kansas City’s elite passing defense. The Chiefs have held five of their past six opponents to 188 passing yards or fewer, for an average of 161.7 per game. With fewer snaps to play with, it seems improbable that Likely accumulates the necessary workload to surpass 22.5 receiving yards.
Isiah Pacheco Lower 3.0 Receptions
There’s no disputing that Andy Reid has cemented himself as one of the all-time great coaches in the NFL. So who are we to question his decision-making? All we can do is sit back and watch the genius at work, watching how Reid amends his schemes. One of the adjustments we’ve recognized about the Chiefs’ game-planning in the postseason is decreased Isiah Pacheco usage in the passing attack. That downward trajectory will continue against one of the stoutest defensive units in the league.
Since the playoffs started, Patrick Mahomes has thrown just two passes Isiah Pacheco’s way. The Chiefs running back was targeted just one in each contest, turning both catches into a miniscule 13 yards. That decreased usage surely impacts Pacheco’s ceiling in hostile territory on Championship Sunday.
Baltimore ended the regular season with one of the top-performing pass defenses. The Ravens allowed a paltry 191.0 passing yards per game, putting them top five in the NFL. Further, they’ve improved that standard over the last month, limiting their last three opponents to a combined 530 yards, or a per-game average of 176.7.
Our player projections reveal an edge in Pacheco going below both of his passing projections, however our preferred play is on his receptions. The Chiefs have made a concerted effort to look for other pass catchers, reserving Pacheco primarily for rushing plays. We’re betting he falls beneath 3.0 receptions when the dust settles on the AFC Championship Game.
Brandon Aiyuk Lower 75.5 Receiving Yards
The Baltimore Ravens aren’t the only team that benefits from the return of a superstar at the most pivotal time of year. After being limited in the Divisional Round with a shoulder injury, Deebo Samuel has been cleared to play in the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium. Like Andrews suiting up for the Ravens, this will have a downstream impact on one of his teammate’s projections.
Specifically, Brandon Aiyuk’s ceiling is hampered by the return of Samuel. But even without Samuel in the lineup, Aiyuk hasn’t been a primary contributor lately. The Niners speedster has been targeted just 10 times over the last two games, posting a disappointing 60.0% catch rate with 57 receiving yards.
Even against a weak Lions secondary, Aiyuk’s receiving-yards projection is too high. The 2020 first-round pick has fallen below 50 receiving yards in five of his previous eight, averaging 68.1 yards per game across that sample.
Several factors are working against Aiyuk in this one. First, Samuel’s return eats into Aiyuk’s target share. Second, his effectiveness has taken a hit over his last two games, posting below average metrics. Lastly, Aiyuk hasn’t been stretching the field and picking up yards. Altogether, we’re comfortable taking the 49ers wide receiver to come in below 75.5 receiving yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs Lower 23.5 Receiving Yards
Detroit’s early postseason run has been nothing short of sensational. However, the Lions face a much different battle on the road against the 49ers. Jared Goff and company haven’t played outdoors since a mid-December battle against the Chicago Bears. Although the elements will have less of an impact in San Francisco, we’ve seen the Lions struggle to adapt their success to outdoor stadiums.
Listen to these Goff splits. Indoors, the Lions quarterback completes 70.2% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt, with a 24-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Outside, those metrics fall to 63.6%, 6.5, and 5-to-4, respectively. Surely that will have a detrimental impact on his pass catchers’ production, including Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs has stepped up in the postseason, but he has a few of his own red flags we can’t look past. Prior to catching all eight targets in the postseason, Gibbs was trending in an unproductive direction. The rookie had 20 or fewer receiving yards in each of his last seven regular-season games. Predictably, Gibbs’ diminished yardage correlated with decreased productivity. He had a lackluster 55.6% catch rate and laughable 2.1 yards per target.
In reality, Gibbs likely falls somewhere between his disappointing end of the regular season and his resurgent playoff metrics. However, we’re betting he regresses to the low end of the spectrum against a fierce Niners’ defensive front. San Francisco held Aaron Jones to eight yards on three catches last week, and Gibbs’ ceiling isn’t much higher.
This is a generous line based on his playoff performances, but Gibbs should fall below his total Sunday.
