In today’s age of social media, where everything is shared, re-purposed, and shared again, everyone has seen the “Stop, stop! He’s already dead.” Simpsons’ meme. Lucky for us, we’ll get to see that play out on live television on Thursday night. The hapless Denver Broncos are on the road, taking on the perennial powerhouse Kansas City Chiefs. It’s just a matter of time before the Broncos start waving the white flag, and we’re betting that happens sooner rather than later in Week 6.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Broncos-Chiefs NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Russell Wilson Lower 20.5 Completions
It’s becoming more obvious by the week that the Seattle Seahawks couldn’t have sold higher than they did with Russell Wilson. The former Super Bowl-winning quarterback is in the twilight of his career, barely scraping by with below-average metrics. Those weaknesses will be exposed by one of the best defenses in the league.
Sure, Wilson has looked serviceable the past couple of weeks, but those performances came against two of the worst defenses in the league. Over that stretch, Wilson has completed 41-of-59 passes for a 69.5% completion rating and five touchdowns to zero interceptions. That’s well beyond his normal range, putting Wilson on a fast track with regression.
Through Weeks 2 and 3, Wilson was scraping by with a 59.6% completion rate, throwing interceptions in both outings. That’s roughly equivalent to what we saw from him all of last year when the Broncos QB completed 60.5% of passes. It’s just a matter of time before Wilson regresses to that standard, and circumstances suggest that Week 6 is the start of a correction phase.
Wilson and the Broncos are traveling on a short week for a divisional matchup. The market has taken a hard stance against the visitors, installing them as +10.5 underdogs. Even with an increase in pass attempts, we expect Wilson to fall apart at the seams and stay beneath his completion line.
Russell Wilson Higher 0.5 Interceptions
As a derivative of our first play, we’re taking another shot at Wilson. Predictably, it’s not a flattering approach, as we’re betting the 35-year-old tosses at least one lame duck into the Chiefs’ hands on Thursday night.
Granted, Wilson’s been more reliable with the ball the past couple of weeks, but he’s throwing against a top-tier defense on primetime. The Chiefs rank eighth in opponent completion percentage, allowing just 204.2 passing yards per game. Although interceptions haven’t been an integral part of their defense, they should start to see an increase in their turnover margin.
Heading into Week 6, Kansas City ranks last with just one interception. That’s a deviation from what we’ve come to expect from the Chiefs, as they’ve been a top-end pass defense for several years. Moreover, the defending Super Bowl Champions sit in the bottom half of the league with a -2 turnover differential in 2023. Personnel changes account at least partly for those deteriorating metrics, but we should start to see an uptick in productivity over the coming weeks.
Historically, Wilson doesn’t always make the best decisions with the football. He’s tossed at least 10 interceptions five times already in his career, and it’s unlikely that improves in the twilight years.
Kansas City has a ferocious defense, and turning the ball over should be a theme in this AFC West showdown.
Justin Watson Higher 1.5 Receptions
As usual, Patrick Mahomes is milking maximum value out of his receiving corps, despite not having a premier wide receiver. Instead, he and Andy Reid are incorporating an array of pass catchers into their schemes, keeping opposing defenses on their toes. In his second season with the team, Justin Watson is taking on a more prominent role in the aerial attack.
The Chiefs tried to make Watson a bigger part of the offense last year, but it didn’t pan out. The then fifth-year pro started five games for Kansas City, grabbing a disappointing 44.1% of targets. Still, Watson flashed glimmers of hope, earning five starts and setting career bests almost across the board.
Flashforward to this year and Watson has nearly surpassed those benchmarks five games into the season. The Pennsylvania product needs just six catches and 96 yards to eclipse last year’s receptions and receiving yards totals. Watson may not be able to accomplish the feat against the Broncos, but he should be productive enough to go above his 1.5 receptions.
Mahomes has thrown Watson’s way 16 times this season, with the wideout hauling in at least two catches in all but one of his outings. More importantly, Watson has finally improved his pass-catching, posting a 62.5% catch rate, above his career average of 53.3%.
It shouldn’t take long for Watson to surpass his reception threshold on Thursday night.
Isiah Pacheo Higher 11.5 Receiving Yards
It’s not fair how easily Andy Reid can turn a blue-chip prospect into a top-end producer. The latest gem Reid’s polished is former seventh-round pick, Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco made the team out of camp last year, delivered when called upon, and hasn’t relented since. He may not be the preferred pass-catching back, but his receiving yards line is too low for us to pass up.
Pacheco has been a regular target for Mahomes. The New Jersey native has been targeted 13 times this season, seeing at least three passes in three of five games. More impressively, Pacheco has hauled in 11 of those looks for an 88.9% career catch.
Denver hasn’t had an answer for opposing running backs in the passing game. Last week, Breece Hall caught all three of his targets for 17 yards. The week before that, Khalil Herbert went 4-for-5 for 19 yards. And Broncos fans probably don’t need to be reminded of what Raheem Mostert accomplished in Week 3.
Pacheco will remain a priority on offense, including getting looks in the passing game. He should have no problems finding enough holes in the Broncos defense to go north of 11.5 receiving yards.
