Week 10 concludes with another sub-optimal primetime matchup. One of these teams is on the edge of greatness, looking to maintain their playoff position and go on a deep postseason run. The other team has Russell Wilson. The Buffalo Bills started the week in a playoff position but were usurped by the Houston Texans following their nail-biting win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Nevertheless, Buffalo can supplant the Texans with a win over the Denver Broncos on Monday night.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Broncos-Bills NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Josh Allen Higher 34.0 Pass Attempts
There’s never too much of a good thing. At least that’s the mentality we’re expecting the Bills to embrace as they shred a porous Broncos’ secondary at Highmark Stadium. Josh Allen remains the centerpiece on offense and has the resume to back up another high-volume performance at home.
Sean McDermott hasn’t been shy about using Allen in his game-planning. The Bills’ field general has attempted 38 or more passing attempts in four of his last five, averaging 37.8 over that stretch. The outlier in this sample was a 30-pass attempt effort back in Week 6, a 14-9 victory over the lowly New York Giants.
Allen and the passing attack should have more room to operate against Denver’s pass defense. Although the Broncos have taken strides toward improvement over their past few games, they still allow the sixth-most passing yards per game in the NFL. Worse, they give up an average of 323.0 passing yards per game as the visitors, with an absurd 79.8% completion rating.
Irrespective of the opponent, the Bills have unleashed Allen recently. The two-time Pro Bowler has torched opponents, and a matchup against the Broncos is the type of freebie the Bills need to get their passing attack back on track. Considering the Broncos track record as the visitors, there’s nothing they can do to slow them down.
Allen should have no problem exceeding 34 pass attempts on Monday night.
Gabe Davis Higher 37.5 Receiving Yards
A few weeks ago, we mentioned how Gabe Davis excels at home, illustrating his pronounced splits at home. Those differences have only grown since then, leaving bookmakers a little befuddled as to where to place his receiving yards total. We think they’ve set it too low, leaving an edge in taking Davis to go higher than 37.5 receiving yards.
The Bills wideout has been a preferred target for Allen at home. In their friendly confines, Davis averages 72.2 yards per game on 5.4 catches and 6.8 targets. Compare that to his respective road splits of 18.3, 1.0, and 3.8, and it becomes shockingly clear that Davis does his best work at home.
The most telling sign of this dichotomy is his catch rate. Davis has a Pro Bowl-worthy 79.4% catch rate at Highmark Stadium, falling to 26.7% on the road. Moreover, Davis has at least 61 receiving yards in four of his five home games, failing to exceed the 35-yard threshold in any of his four road appearances.
The Broncos have lost sight of secondary receivers in the past. Last time out, Rashee Rice and Justin Watson had 56 and 42 receiving yards, respectively, combining to catch 6-of-8 targets. The week before that, six different Green Bay Packers receivers had at least 21 yards each. Evidently, the Broncos don’t have the answer for slowing down anybody, assuring that Davis surpasses his receiving yards on MNF.
Samaje Perine Higher 2.0 Receptions and 13.5 Receiving Yards
Sean Payton has employed different strategies to try and get his team moving. Included in that is incorporating Samaje Perine into different schemes to get him space in the passing game. It’s a pass that Wilson can’t miss, and Perine has been effective at getting yards in chunks.
Perine has at least three targets in all but two of his eight outings this season. Altogether, the former fourth-round pick has totaled 22 receptions and 231 yards on 26 targets. What’s not lost in that is his 84.6% catch rate, which is second-best on the team among all pass-catchers with more than one target. Further, his 231 receiving yards put him fourth on the team that features a bevy of wide receivers and tight ends.
Buffalo hasn’t been as good at defending the pass as it has been in the past. Their last three opponents are averaging 278.3 passing yards per game, ranking seventh-last in completion percentage on the season. Running backs have enjoyed success versus the Bills, with the last three running backs they’ve faced combining for 152 receiving yards and catching 18 of 19 passes.
In reconciling the available data, there’s no doubt that Perine has a tremendous amount of upside in this one. The Broncos’ primary pass-catching back has excelled this season, and Perine should have no problem going off against the Bills.
Two receptions and 13.5 receiving yards are probably the low end of the spectrum for him.
Adam Trautman Higher 10.5 Receiving Yards
We’re rounding things out with a fifth and final play on another Broncos pass-catcher. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton get the lion’s share of throws in the Broncos’ aerial assault, but Wilson has been selective when he throws to Adam Trautman. The Broncos tight end has a reachable receiving yards prop against the Bills, and we think he gets there on Monday night.
Trautman burst onto the scene with a five-catch performance in Week 1. Since then, he’s accumulated just six receptions, but there are a few indicators suggesting he’s due for a breakout. First, Trautman continues to soak a reasonable amount of targets. Wilson has thrown his way nine times over the past four games, with Trautman seeing multiple targets in all but one of those games. Second, Trautman gets a lot of playing time. The Dayton product has played at least 80.0% of snaps in five of his previous seven.
Lastly, like running backs, the Bills aren’t great at defending against tight ends. Tanner Hudson accumulated 45 yars on four catches last week, becoming the fourth tight end in three weeks to record at least 27 receiving yards against the Bills.
Trautman has been used sparingly, but tonight’s circumstances dictate increased usage from the Broncos tight end. It won’t take more than a pass or two to get him above 10.5 yards, and Trautman should face little resistance in getting there.
