A full day of NFL action couldn’t satiate the hunger we were left with over the past seven months. Thankfully, we have another contest to look forward to with Monday Night Football. The Aaron Rodgers era gets underway for the New York Jets as they host Super Bowl contenders and division favorites, the Buffalo Bills. Whichever team comes out on top gives themselves an early leg up in what’s sure to be a more competitive-than-usual division.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Bills-Jets NFL Player Prop Picks
Josh Allen Over 34.5 Pass Attempts
Josh Allen has become synonymous with the Buffalo Bills. In his five years with the organization, Allen has led the Bills to a 52-24 record and three straight division titles. Over that stretch, Allen has established himself as one of the best passers in the game and will have that brilliance on full display on Sunday Night Football.
The Bills quarterback has been among the highest-volume passers over the past few seasons. Since 2020, Allen is averaging 36.4 pass attempts per game. At his peak, the former Wyoming Cowboy averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game, illustrating Allen’s importance to the team’s success. Moreover, that number could ratchet higher with this year’s squad.
The Bills moved on from lead back Devin Singletary this past offseason, amplifying their reliance on the passing game. Singletary accounted for 58.9% of the non-quarterback rushes last season, leaving a massive gap and limited experience to fill that hole. Consequently, we’re anticipating a higher dosage of the passing attack early in 2023.
Lastly, there’s a strong relationship between Allen’s volume and the Bills playing as visitors. In eight road games last year, Allen threw an average of 38.1 passes per game.
He crossed the 33 pass attempt threshold in all but one of those contests, a 35-13 blowout versus the lowly Chicago Bears. With Rodgers marching the Jets with some efficiency on Monday night, Allen will be called upon to lead the Bills’ charge.
Damien Harris Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts
Although James Cook is listed first on the Bills’ depth chart and expected to be the lead rusher out of the backfield, too many people are discounting Damien Harris’ potential contributions. The 26-year-old has looked like an RB1 at times and should take on a more prominent role in the offense than people are expecting.
Injuries limited Harris’ role with the New England Patriots last year, but the former third-round pick has been a solid performer when called upon. Harris started nine of 11 outings last year, averaging 9.6 rush attempts per game. Even when he wasn’t starting, Harris was deployed with regularity, attempting 12 carries in his two non-starts.
As noted, Singletary’s departure leaves too big of a hole for Cook alone to fill. That’s even more true against the Jets’ defense, which ranked as one of the top run-stopping units in the NFL last year. With Cook dipping his toes in the lead-back waters, look for Harris to be a part of the supporting cast, facilitating that development.
As such, we’re betting Harris goes higher than 5.5 carries on primetime.
Dalvin Cook Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts
It took longer than expected but Dalvin Cook eventually found a new landing spot with the Jets. His one-year deal incentivizes production, but don’t expect to see how high Cook can fly in Week 1.
Beggars can’t be choosers, but Cook could have found a better fit offensively. The Jets averaged the sixth-fewest carries per game last year and the fourth-smallest rushing play percentage, highlighting their dependence on the pass. Those issues are compounded with Aaron Rodgers now under center. The four-time MVP has been a pass-first quarterback throughout his career, limiting Cook’s ceiling.
Of course, Cook is also playing behind the highly touted Breece Hall. Hall was just starting to unlock his potential when an ACL tear prematurely ended his campaign. The former Iowa State Cyclone has been activated off the PUP list for nearly a month, ensuring he’s at or near full health for the season opener.
Several factors are working against Cook as he looks to highlight his elite running abilities. Unfortunately, we’re not anticipating a full display from Cook in this one.
We’re thinking he stays under the 12.5 rush attempt projection.
