The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills could be one of the burgeoning rivalries in the AFC. These foes met in last year’s Divisional Round, with the Bengals claiming a decisive 27-10 victory. Although both teams looked sluggish right off the bat in 2023, the Bengals and Bills have both turned a corner with their more recent performances. As such, Week 9’s Sunday Night Football encounter could be foreshadowing another bitter playoff contest that awaits these teams when the calendar flips to 2024.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Bills-Bengals NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Joe Mixon Lower 3.5 Receptions
Joe Mixon has never been a prominent part of the Bengals passing attack. Nor have they asked him to be. The former Pro Bowler suits up as a traditional lead back, absorbing carries and chewing up turf. Although he’ll be a primary factor Sunday night, we don’t expect him to factor into the passing game.
Mixon remains one of the steadiest backs in the league. The 27-year-old has 12 or more carries in every game this season, averaging 16.0 carries per game and 4.0 yards per carry. Where we don’t see Mixon being deployed is as a pass-catching back. The Bengals halfback hasn’t been targeted more than four times since Week 2, failing to surpass four catches in any outing this year.
Expect Mixon to eat up yards, but don’t expect many of those to come via the pass. The Bengals consistently deploy Mixon as a ball carrier, and that’s unlikely to change in a pivotal matchup such as this. We’re betting he stays under 3.5 receptions against the Bills.
James Cook Higher 48.5 Rushing Yards
Over the past few years, several players have tried to fill the Bills’ lead back role, but no one has done so as convincingly as James Cook has. The former second-round pick has blossomed in his second season with the Bills, and more people will start to take notice after this primetime showing.
Cook has solidified himself as the lead back out of Buffalo’s backfield. The Georgia product has totaled at least 12 carries in all but one of his eight matchups this season, almost tripling the next closest rusher. More pertinently, Cook has been a roaring success every time he touches the ball, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 60.8 yards per game.
Last year, Cincinnati earned a reputation as one of the top-performing run defenses in the NFL; however, that hasn’t been the case in 2023. Opponents are averaging 138.6 rushing yards per game, fifth-most in the league. Moreover, lead backs are absolutely trampling the Bengals. Three of the last four primary running backs they’ve faced have rushed for at least 54 yards. Worse, Cincinnati has allowed seven different rushers to accumulate at least 45 rushing yards over the last four games.
Cook has surpassed 50 rushing yards in three straight games. He should have no problem getting there against a swiss-cheese Bengals front.
Ja’Marr Chase Lower 8.0 Receptions
File this under the “water is still wet” category: Ja’Marr Chase remains an integral piece of the Bengals’ offensive puzzle. The two-time Pro Bowler has been targeted 12 or more times in four of his past five, eclipsing double-digit receptions and 100 receiving yards in three of those contests. Surprisingly though, he’s been less effective at home and faces a sincere challenge from a top-10 passing defense in this one.
Despite the Offensive Player of the Year-type volume, Chase hasn’t been the usual burner we’ve come to expect from him. Although he’s surpassed 100 receiving yards recently, he’s still been held to 80 yards and seven catches or fewer in the other four games. Consequently, Chase has a career-worst 10.9 yards per reception and 7.7 yards per target. When isolating home games, his yards per target dip further to 7.0, with fewer receptions, yards, and targets at Paycor Stadium.
Chase will also have his hands full against a top-tier passing defense. The Bills have limited opponents to 204.1 passing yards per game, with receivers finding no room in the secondary. Last week, Buffalo held Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to a combined 93 yards and 61.5% catch rate.
Only once this season has a receiver caught more than seven passes against the Bills. Considering Chase’s ineffective home performances and decreased production, we’re betting it stays that way. Ja’Marr Chase should stay beneath eight receptions.
Irv Smith Higher 2.0 Receptions
Where the Bills have been less effective is defending against tight ends. Buffalo gets burned by the hefty pass catchers week after week, coinciding with a surge in Irv Smith’s usage.
The Bengals tight end has taken on a more robust role on offense lately. Smith Jr. missed a few weeks earlier this season, but he got back onto the field in Week 5, playing at least 59.0% of snaps each game since. Further, Burrow has taken a liking to Smith as a secondary weapon, targeting him four or more times in three of five contests. That usage is projected to continue now that he’s cemented himself atop the depth chart.
Over their previous five games, the Bills have allowed six different tight ends to record multiple receptions, with every one going off for big yardage. If there was a receiving yards projection, we would probably defer to the higher on that. Still, we like Smith Jr. to record two or more receptions Sunday night.
