After a seemingly neverending supply of less-than-stellar primetime matchups, NFL schedule makers have finally graced us with a peak contest. Two AFC North foes battle it out with serious playoff implications on the line. The Baltimore Ravens have jumped out to an early lead in the division but have all three divisional rivals breathing down their necks. Among those is the Cincinnati Bengals, who have looked out of sorts to open the campaign. Nevertheless, Cincinnati can re-assert themselves as playoff contenders with a strong showing against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Bengals-Ravens NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Zay Flowers Higher 4.0 Receptions
It didn’t take long for Zay Flowers to shoot to the top of Lamar Jackson’s progression chart. The rookie wideout burst onto the scene with a nine-catch, 78-yard performance in Week 1 against the Houston Texans. Since then, Flowers is averaging five catches and 54.5 receiving yards per game while being a focal point in the Ravens’ passing attack. He should maintain that profile under the bright lights on Thursday night.
Flowers has only hit double-digit targets on a few occasions, but Jackson can still feel confident when he’s looking Flowers’ way. The 22nd overall selection has a robust 73.5% catch rate, hauling in 50 of his 68 targets. Still, that’s been the low mark for his recent performances, as Flowers has caught 21 of the last 28 passes thrown his way for a modestly improved 75.0% catch rate. Further, he’s got five or more receptions in four of his last six.
Predictably, Flowers has done his best work at home. His catch rate soars to 81.8% M&T Bank Stadium, resulting in more yards, catches, and a superior 8.6 yards per target.
Moreover, the Bengals have struggled to defend the pass this year. Cincinnati ranks eighth-last in passing yards allowed, with their opponent’s completion rate inflating to 65.3% over its previous three. That should afford Zay Flowers the time and space he needs to exceed 4.0 receptions in this AFC North clash.
Tyler Boyd Higher 44.5 Receiving Yards
The Bengals have their own wide receiver they can turn to, and it’s not who you were expecting. Ja’Marr Chase is the bellcow of the Bengals offense, but Tyler Boyd has taken on an increased secondary role in 2023. A few factors point toward another strong showing from Boyd against the Ravens.
After a few seasons of diminishing metrics, Boyd’s role has grown this year. The eighth-year pro has re-kindled his connection with Joe Burrow and is putting up career-best metrics. Boyd’s 72.1% catch rate is the best it’s ever been, and he’s trending towards the second-most receptions he’s recorded in a season. More importantly, Boyd has the underlying metrics supporting ongoing production.
Burrow lost sight of Boyd in 2022. Boyd’s target share bottomed out 13.4% last year, the worst it had been since 2017. However, the Bengals receiver has had a resurgent campaign in 2023. His 17.5% target share is second only to Chase. Additionally, Boyd has been targeted at least seven times in six of eight, grabbing 79.4% of passes over his last five.
On the whole, the Ravens’ pass defense remains elite; however, they tend to lose eight of secondary targets in their defensive backfield. Over the past three games, Elijah Moore, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Michael Wilson have combined for 165 yards, hauling in 15-of-20 passes.
That sets the stage for another elite effort from Boyd, following up on his season-best performance last week. We like him to exceed 44.5 receiving in Week 11.
Mark Andrews Lower 58.5 Receiving Yards
We are taking a bit of a contrarian angle compared to our first play, highlighting Mark Andrews to go lower than 58.5 receiving yards. The Ravens tight end has taken a backseat in game planning over the past few weeks and likely won’t be a primary target on Thursday night.
Baltimore has always been a run-first team. The Ravens prioritize the ground-and-pound style of football, setting up choosier passing plays after running the ball down their opponent’s throats. But with the emergence of Flowers, and with the usual suspects necessitating looks as well, Andrews isn’t getting the same target share that we’ve seen from him in years past.
The three-time Pro Bowler has been targeted six or fewer times in all but one of his last five outings, catching four or fewer passes in four of five. With fewer passes coming his way, Andrews has been unable to exceed his receiving yards total on his short-to-intermediate routes. The Oklahoma product has 44 or fewer receiving yards in two of his previous three, with a sup-optimal 66.7% catch rate or worse in four of six.
According to our projections, there are a few edges in going lower on Andrews’ props, but our preferred in-road is his receiving yards total. Jackson isn’t prioritizing Andrews in the passing game lately, and that’s resulting in fewer yards and receptions. Consequently, we’re expecting him to fall below 58.5 receiving yards against the Bengals.
