For most of this season, the Detroit Lions appeared to be on a cakewalk toward their first NFC North title ever. However, two losses over their last five games have left the door open for the Minnesota Vikings to unseat the division leaders. First, the Vikings have to get past the Chicago Bears in Week 12’s conclusion on Monday night. This line is curiously low, with Minnesota currently installed as short -3 favorites. We’ve seen good things from the Vikings over their recent sample, a trend that should continue at home on Monday Night Football.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Bears-Vikings NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Alexander Mattison Higher 12.5 Rushing Attempts
Joshua Dobbs deserves a lot of credit for getting up to speed on a complex offensive system in a short amount of time. Still, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has been doing what he can to insulate his recently acquired quarterback. One of the variables the team can control in easing Dobbs’ learning curve is to lean more into the run game, which we expect to see against the Bears.
Naturally, Minnesota will be running the ball more if they have the lead, a factor we may be able to assume, given their status as favorites. But there is more at play here. The Vikings have amplified their running plays since Dobbs took the reins on offense. Over the past three weeks, Minnesota is calling rushing plays on 48.3% of their offensive snaps, ninth-most in the NFL. That’s a nearly 11.0% jump from their regular season average of 37.7%.
Alexander Mattison is the bell-cow on offense and has been the primary recipient of the additional carries. Before the quarterback change, Mattison was averaging 12.8 carries per game, exceeding 12 carries in four of eight outings. In the three games since, the Vikings running back has seen a modest boost up to 14.0 rushing attempts per game, going north of 16 in two of three.
Rushing plays have become the priority in the Vikings camp since Dobbs took over. We should see that trend continue, if not increase, while playing with the lead against the Bears. Mattison remains the primary beneficiary and should go higher than his attempts number.
Roschon Johnson Higher 22.5 Rushing Yards
Bettor, beware, his line varies wildly depending on where you shop, but for consistency’s sake, we’re looking at the number at Underdog Fantasy. As of Sunday night, there were still some mid-range teen numbers out there.
All of that is to say, Roschon Johnson still isn’t getting enough love in the rushing yards market. The rookie running back out of Texas has patiently waited in the wings for his opportunities. Every time they come around, Johnson makes the most of them. With D’Onta Foreman unavailable, Johnson should absorb the few extra carries needed to surpass 22.5 rushing yards.
Johnson has been used sparingly in his first professional campaign. Through nine games, Johnson has totaled 44 rushing attempts, going off for a respectable 197 yards or 4.5 yards per carry. The bruising back has a knack for getting yards in big chunks, breaking off runs of ten or more yards in six of his nine outings.
Effective running hasn’t been Khalil Herbert’s strong suit this season. And neither has consistency. Herbert has gone hot and cold at different times this season but is coming off one of his most underwhelming performances of the year. The Bears’ primary rusher mustered a disappointing 35 yards on 16 carries in last week’s loss to the Lions. He’ll be on a short leash as the Bears try to establish the ground game against their hosts.
Johnson typically sees a boost in usage with the game out of reach. Despite what the current line may imply, that could hit sooner rather than later on Monday night. Minnesota is 5-1 over its last six games, covering the spread in all but one of those outings. A big lead early could put this game out of reach, giving Johnson an even bigger platform to step off. Either way, we like him to eclipse 22.5 rushing yards.
Khalil Herbert Higher 10.5 Receiving Yards
On the topic of the Bears’ running backs, we’re making another unassuming play. Coming into this season, Herbert wasn’t viewed as a pass-catching back. Although he still fulfills the prototypical running back profile, we’ve seen increased usage in the passing game from Herbert this year. His best chance at making meaningful contributions likely comes in the Bears’ passing game.
Through his first two professional seasons, Herbert had accumulated 23 receptions on 28 targets. He’s nearly matched those benchmarks in three games this year. Already this season, Herbert has 12 catches on 21 targets, churning out 89 receiving yards.
Moreover, checkdowns and designed passing plays to running backs could be a frequent occurrence against this fierce Minnesota defense. The Vikings’ main weakness on defense has been defending the pass, particularly pass-catching backs. Last week, Samaje Perine went off for 60 receiving yards on seven catches, becoming the sixth running back in five weeks to surpass 16 receiving yards.
Herbert is the primary back for Chicago and could be the recipient of a few extra passes as the Bears try to eat up whatever yards they can via the pass. Consequently, there’s a playable edge in backing Herbert to go north of 10.5 receiving yards in this NFC North battle.
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