We may only be seven weeks into the year, but the Justin Jefferson injury may have signaled the end of the Minnesota Vikings season. The Vikings are 2-4, sitting well off the pace in the wild card race and even further back in the NFC North. Things aren’t getting any easier with Monday night’s tilt against the San Francisco 49ers. The NFC juggernauts remain one of the best teams in the NFL, besting teams on both sides of the ball. However, injuries to several key Niners players could make this a closer-than-anticipated showdown between two playoff hopefuls.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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49ers-Vikings NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Brock Purdy Lower 239.5 Passing Yards
Kyle Shanahan is one of the brightest minds in football. He has the Niners ready to compete year after year, leaning into his playmaking and schemes to separate his team from the pack. Running the ball is a hallmark of his success, and San Francisco should lean into that strength in tonight’s NFC clash. Consequently, we’re betting Brock Purdy goes lower than 239.5 passing yards.
The 49ers rely on their ground game more than virtually any other team. The NFC West leaders rank second in rushing yards per game (148.3), second in attempts (33.0), and first in rushing play percentage (53.1%). Moreover, emphasizing the ground game has been a common theme on the road this season. Purdy hasn’t attempted more than 29 throws in any of his three road games, averaging 16.0 completions and 183.7 passing yards per contest.
It’s tempting to think that Purdy’s metrics will soar after last week’s outing, but we’re expecting San Francisco to stick to the ground against the Vikings. Further, the Vikings have tightened their straps in the secondary this season, limiting opponents to 218.8 passing yards per game and 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
Purdy has been less effective outside of Levi’s Stadium, and the 49ers have the pre-eminent rushing attack in the NFL. Those factors point toward Purdy staying beneath 239.5 passing yards.
Christian McCaffrey Lower 61.5 Rushing Yards
Timing is everything, they say, and things appear to be falling apart for the 49ers at an inopportune time. Already without Deebo Samuel for at least a few weeks, former All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey is dealing with an oblique injury. Although the Niners’ lead back is reportedly going to play tonight, we don’t expect him to be at his best on primetime.
McCaffrey suffered the setback in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Cleveland Browns, missing the first two practices this week. He was able to make it through Saturday’s walkthrough, but it’s unlikely he can tolerate his usual duties. Even before the injury, we were starting to see a decline in McCaffrey’s metrics. Over the past two weeks, the Stanford product has mustered just 94 yards on 30 carries, for an average of 3.1 yards per carry.
Injuries to skill players aren’t the only factor impacting offensive production. Ten-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro tackle Trent Williams is also missing Week 7’s battle. Williams plays a crucial role in creating lanes for running backs, and not having him available impacts the Niners’ ground game.
Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell will likely absorb more carries than usual to ease the workload on McCaffrey. But McCaffrey will have a hard time eclipsing 61.5 rushing yards in what should be a limited role.
T.J. Hockenson Higher 5.5 Receptions
Moving on from Dalvin Cook, this past offseason has had a profound impact on the Vikings’ rushing attack. Minnesota is averaging the third-fewest rushing yards per game, down over 20 yards from last year’s benchmark of 95.7. That has resulted in an increased reliance on their aerial assault, as Kirk Cousins turns to the usual suspects via the passing game. With Jefferson out for at least four weeks, T.J. Hockeson will be the defacto receiving option for Cousins.
Jefferson’s injury notwithstanding, Hockenson has been a fundamental part of the Vikings’ game plan. The Iowa product has been targeted at least eight times in all but one of his six outings, totaling 304 yards on 36 catches. That average puts him right on the mark to go over 5.5 receptions.
Additionally, the Niners have allowed a high completion rate to tight ends over their recent sample. Since Week 4, opposing tight ends have reeled in 13 of 18 targets for a 72.2% catch rate. Arizona Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz set the low mark, but even he managed to grab six of 10 passes for 53 yards.
Hockenson led the team in targets last week, which will be the standard moving forward. The two-time Pro Bowler has been Cousins’ safety blanket and is in line to fill some of the void left by Jefferson’s absence. Hockenson may have a hard time going north of his receiving yards projection, but the volume should be there to help him grab at least six catches.
