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Week 10 NFL Fantasy QB Breakdown: Kyler Murray, Sorta MVP

The Week 10 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 10 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday morning).

  • Kyler Murray: No. 1
  • Josh Allen: No. 2
  • Jared Goff: No. 7
  • Derek Carr: No. 11
  • Carson Wentz: No. 12

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Kyler Murray: Arizona Cardinals (-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (56 Over/Under)

Through the first eight games of the season, Murray is doing his best 2019 Lamar Jackson impersonation, producing as both a passer and runner.

  • Week 1 (at SF): 26.3 fantasy points | 230-1-1 passing | 13-91-1 rushing
  • Week 2 (vs. WAS): 32.1 fantasy points | 286-1-1 passing | 8-67-2 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. DET): 21.7 fantasy points | 270-2-3 passing | 5-29-1 rushing
  • Week 4 (at CAR): 23.1 fantasy points | 133-3-0 passing | 6-78-0 rushing
  • Week 5 (at NYJ): 26.3 fantasy points | 380-1-1 passing | 9-31-1 rushing
  • Week 6 (at DAL): 28.9 fantasy points | 188-2-0 passing | 10-74-1 rushing
  • Week 7 (vs. SEA): 37.1 fantasy points | 360-3-1 passing | 14-67-1 rushing
  • Week 9 (vs. MIA): 37.9 fantasy points | 283-3-0 passing | 11-106-1 rushing

For the season, Murray is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 32.4 fantasy points per game and 0.77 fantasy points per drop back (per Pro Football Focus).

Murray’s consistency has been unrivaled. In every game this season,  he has finished as a fantasy QB1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

His consistency in large part rests with his Konami Code running ability: Even though he is No. 29 in the league with “just” 76 carries — which is an obscene total for a quarterback — Murray is No. 8 with 543 yards and tied for No. 3 with eight touchdowns rushing.

Among all quarterbacks, Murray is easily No. 1 with 6.4 rushing fantasy points over expectation (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).

As a passer, Murray has established an immediate connection with new No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. When targeting Nuk, Murray is 60-of-76 passing for 734-3-1 with a stellar 9.9 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A, per RotoViz AY/A App).

For context, Patrick Mahomes is No. 1 in the league with a 9.6 AY/A, which is the same mark he had in his 2018 MVP season. Whenever Murray has targeted his No. 1 receiver, he has displayed super-Mahomes efficiency.

One potential issue issue is that Hopkins is likely to face 2019 All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White in shadow coverage. While that’s unfortunate for Hopkins, that probably won’t matter much for Murray.

Last week, in the shadow coverage of Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, Hopkins had a season-worst 3-30-0 receiving performance on three targets. Even so, Murray was still the No. 1 fantasy quarterback on the slate.

Although they were No. 4 with a 90.2 PFF coverage grade just last year, the Bills in 2020 do not have an imposing defense. Almost every non-Sam Darnold quarterback to face them this year has had success.

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (Week 2): 24.3 fantasy points | 328-2-0 passing | 3-12-0 rushing
  • Jared Goff (Week 3): 27.2 fantasy points | 321-2-1 passing | 2-4-1 rushing
  • Derek Carr (Week 4): 20.4 fantasy points | 311-2-0 passing | 4-20-0 rushing
  • Ryan Tannehill (Week 5): 30.0 fantasy points | 195-3-0 passing | 4-42-1 rushing
  • Patrick Mahomes (Week 6): 20.6 fantasy points | 225-2-0 passing | 10-36-0 rushing
  • Cam Newton (Week 8): 18.4 fantasy points | 174-0-0 passing | 9-54-1 rushing
  • Russell Wilson (Week 9): 22.1 fantasy points | 390-2-2 passing | 2-5-1 rushing

If these guys can take it to the Bills, Murray certainly can.

It’s just an added bonus that he’s on the positive side of his splits. The sample is small, but in his four games as a home favorite Murray has dominated (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Murray leads all quarterbacks in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

What’s more, he has position-high +4.98 and +7.03 Plus/Minus values on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If the Cardinals had two more wins, he’d be a legitimate MVP candidate.

A locked-in top-three QB1 in season-long leagues, Murray is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88, Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel. He’s also the top option in Bales and Raybon Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 10 Pro Trends.

Josh Allen: Buffalo Bills (+2) at Arizona Cardinals (56 O/U)

Through the first month of the season, Allen was the No. 2 fantasy quarterback, scoring no fewer than three total touchdowns in each game.

  • Week 1 (vs. NYJ): 28.2 fantasy points | 312-2-0 passing | 14-57-1 rushing
  • Week 2 (at MIA): 34.5 fantasy points | 415-4-0 passing | 4-19-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. LAR): 31.2 fantasy points | 311-4-0 passing | 4-8-1 rushing
  • Week 4 (at LV): 25.4 fantasy points | 288-2-0 passing | 3-minus 1-1 rushing

But in the season’s second month, Allen had a sub-Daniel Jones 17.7 fantasy points per game

  • Week 5 (at TEN): 16.3 fantasy points | 263-2-2 passing | 4-18-0 rushing
  • Week 6 (vs. KC): 15.1 fantasy points | 122-2-1 passing | 8-42-0 rushing
  • Week 7 (at NYJ): 16.4 fantasy points | 307-0-0 passing | 11-61-rushing
  • Week 8 (vs. NE): 12.5 fantasy points | 154-0-1 passing | 10-23-1 rushing

In Weeks 1-4, he had an elite 10.3 AY/A. Weeks 5-8, a 5.8 AY/A.

In Week 9, though, Allen jumpstarted his ride with 415-3-0 passing and 7-14-1 rushing against the Seahawks.

This motorcycle is ready for the road.

While we shouldn’t expect Allen to have a similar performance this week, we also shouldn’t be all dissuaded by what we saw out of him in Weeks 5-8. Allen has always been better in fantasy than reality, and even when he has been average at best as an NFL player he has usually been a strong fantasy producer.

As a rookie, Allen was the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 26.6 points per game for the final six weeks of the season after returning to action from an elbow injury.

In his second season, Allen had only one game in which he finished as anything less than a fantasy QB2 (excluding his partial Week 17).

Even when he’s not good, Allen still tends to be good enough.

What makes Allen so investable is his Konami Code rushing ability and specifically his goal-line usage (per game, per Player Profiler).

  • 2019 (16 games): 6.8 carries (No. 2) | 1.4 red-zone carries (No. 2)
  • 2020 (nine games): 7.2 carries (No. 4) | 1.7 red-zone carries (No. 5)

With his rushing production, Allen has a nearly unrivaled floor/ceiling combination. No quarterback comes close to him with his 22 touchdowns rushing since 2018.

Allen has a strong matchup against the Cardinals, who are No. 23 with a 50.6 PFF coverage grade and might be without a number of cornerbacks.

Although they have Patrick Peterson, the veteran no longer possesses his three-time All-Pro form, and after him the Cardinals have serious injury issues at corner.

No. 2 corner Robert Alford (pectoral) is out for the entire season. Every-week starters Dre Kirkpatrick (thigh) and Byron Murphy (COVID-19) both missed last week and are uncertain for this week. Injury fill-in Kevin Peterson (concussion) left Week 9 early with a head injury and has no timetable to return.

And backup De’Vante Bausby was just cut by the team.

Cardinals cornerbacks. Spinal Tap drummers. They’re the same.

There are few players comparable to Allen, but the three quarterbacks with running ability to face the Cardinals this year have done well.

  • Teddy Bridgewater (Week 4): 26.2 fantasy points | 276-2-1 passing | 6-32-1 rushing
  • Russell Wilson (Week 7): 29.9 fantasy points | 388-3-3 passing | 6-84-0 rushing
  • Tua Tagovailoa (Week 9): 21.4 fantasy points | 248-2-0 passing | 7-35-0 rushing

Allen is on the positive side of his reverse home/away splits since last year (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Away (12 games): 23.5 FanDuel points | 91.7% Consistency Rating
  • Home (13 games): 18.8 FanDuel points | 53.8% Consistency Rating

And as a road underdog, Allen is 7-2-2 against the spread (ATS) for his career, good for a 41.1% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at FanDuel.

Allen is a top-five QB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 quarterback in the Hodge Model for FanDuel.

Jared Goff: Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (55.5 O/U)

It’s not a great movie, but on more than a few occasions I think about The Break-Up, specifically Vince Vaughn’s classic line of “Why would I want to do dishes?”

Indeed.

Why would I want to roster Jared Goff?

It’s all about his matchup. With a funnel defense that ranks No. 9 against the run (-21.9% DVOA) and No. 29 against the pass (23.4%), the Seahawks are utterly exploitable via the air.

In every game this season, they have allowed either 300 yards or multiple touchdowns passing.

  • Matt Ryan (Week 1): 23.9 fantasy points | 450-2-1 passing | 1-minus 1-0 rushing
  • Cam Newton (Week 2): 34.6 fantasy points | 397-1-1 passing | 11-47-2 rushing
  • Dak Prescott (Week 3): 27.5 fantasy points | 473-3-2 passing | 6-26-0 rushing
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (Week 4): 21.3 fantasy points | 315-0-2 passing | 6-47-1 rushing
  • Kirk Cousins (Week 5): 14.2 fantasy points | 249-2-1 passing | 1-2-0 rushing
  • Kyler Murray (Week 7): 37.1 fantasy points | 360-3-1 passing | 14-67-1 rushing
  • Jimmy Garoppolo & Nick Mullens (Week 8): 19.3 fantasy points | 322-2-1 passing | 4-4-0 rushing
  • Josh Allen (Week 9): 36.0 fantasy points | 415-3-0 passing | 7-14-1 rushing

Long gone is the Legion of Boom.

This season, opposing quarterbacks are No. 1 against the Seahawks with 26.7 fantasy points per game on 2,980-16-9 passing and 50-206-5 rushing.

Follow the flow chart.

Additionally, the Seahawks are dealing with major injury issues in their secondary.

Perimeter cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion/hamstring) left Week 7 early and missed Weeks 8-9. He didn’t practice at all last week, which does not bode well for his Week 10 availability.

Backup slot cornerback Ugo Amadi (hamstring) also missed Weeks 8-9 and is yet to return to practice, and Week 1 slot starter Marquise Blair (knee, IR) is already out for the year.

Wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods could gift 200 yards and three touchdowns to Goff all on their own.

Kupp especially has a great matchup in the slot, where he is slated to face third-stringer D.J. Reed Jr. On the season, Kupp has a team-high 26% market share of targets — he had an obscene 20 targets in Week 8 before the bye — and Reed has allowed 13.8 yards per target and an 85.7% catch rate in his two games with the Seahawks.

“Are you telling me that you’re upset because I don’t have a strong desire to clean dishes?”

You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of quarterbacks and pass catchers, and over the past year Goff and Kupp have had a 0.63 correlation. If Goff has a big game, Kupp probably will too. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Goff with his No. 1 receiver.

There’s nothing especially enticing about Goff this season. He’s a non-running quarterback who ranks No. 16 with a 7.5 AY/A. That doesn’t get the blood pumping.

But in his four starts against the Seahawks since 2018, Goff has averaged 331.8 yards per game and 8.9 yards per attempt. He’s more than good enough to exploit the matchup, especially given that head coach Sean McVay is coming off the bye and has had an extra week to plan for the Seahawks.

Full disclosure: I’m betting against the Rams. There’s absolutely no way I’m not taking the Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson in this spot.

For his career, Wilson is 73-56-7 ATS (10.2% ROI) in the regular season.

The Seahawks just endured a 44-34 defeat to the Bills, and Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS (27.8%) off a loss.

As an underdog, Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI). Almost all the value he has offered investors throughout his career has come when getting points.

Wilson is in a good spot.

And aside from anything to do with the Seahawks, I generally want to invest in road dogs off a loss, which I think the sports-betting public tends to undervalue. Since 2004 (when our database starts), road dogs off a loss are 764-674-39 ATS (3.4% ROI).

That might not seem great, but over a sample this large, it’s significant. Within Bet Labs, road dogs off a loss have earned an A- grade.

This looks like an angle we can exploit, especially this year, when home-field advantage has been minimized due to COVID-19 restrictions on attendance.

And if you look at the numbers, it turns out that this year has been the most profitable one for this trend. In 2020, road dogs off a loss are 26-15 ATS (22.7% ROI). You can bet on this game at DraftKings.



And last year was the third-most profitable one for this trend: 45-28-5 ATS (18.1% ROI).

Could there be a reason (other than COVID-19) for road dogs off a loss to be especially undervalued over the past two or so years?

Yes.

Going against road dogs off a loss is a square thing to do, and since last year many inexperienced bettors have entered the market as more states have legalized sports speculation. Perhaps, road dogs coming off a loss have recently been undervalued because the market has become less sophisticated with the influx of new money.

Regardless, you don’t need to twist my arm to get me to bet on Wilson in this spot. I expect the Seahawks to score points, which means I also expect Goff to have an abundance of pass attempts as the Rams try to keep pace.

And if Goff airs it out against this poor pass defense, he could be a week winner.

Goff is a mid-range QB1 and the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel. For good measure, he’s also the top option in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings.

Derek Carr: Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) vs. Denver Broncos (52 O/U)

Let’s be honest: You’re not overly desirous to read analysis on Carr, and I’m not itching to write it, so I’ll be brief.

Although more people are starting to take the Raiders and their quarterback seriously …

… Carr has excelled rather quietly for the first half of the season, pacing for career-best numbers with his 2,002-16-2 passing line. He is No. 7 in the league with an 8.7 AY/A. In every game but one he has been no worse than a fantasy QB2.

The Broncos are No. 3 with a 69.8 PFF coverage grade, so it’s not as if Carr has a highly advantageous matchup, but top cornerbacks A.J. Bouye (concussion) and Bryce Callahan (ankle) both missed Week 9 and are uncertain for Week 10.

If both corners are out for this game, Carr’s upside will be significant. In his two starts against head coach Vic Fangio’s defense last year, Carr averaged 320.5 yards per game and 9.1 yards per attempt.

Carr is a low-end QB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 quarterback in the CSURAM88, Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings.

Carson Wentz: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (Off the Board)

As of writing (Tuesday evening), this game is off the board at DraftKings because the Eagles are dealing with a COVID-19 situation coming off the Week 9 bye.

But this game is still scheduled to play, and when it was posted we saw consensus lines of -3.5 and 44.5.

There are a few reasons to be invested in Wentz this week.

First, he had his best game of the season against the Giants in Week 7 with 359-2-1 passing and 7-14-1 rushing. With a quarterback-friendly funnel defense that ranks No. 11 against the run (-16.4% DVOA) and No. 28 against the pass (21.8%), the Giants present an advantageous matchup.

Second, the Eagles should be relatively healthy coming off the Week 9 bye. Veteran wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (calf) is expected to make his 2020 debut against the Giants, and tight end Dallas Goedert, wide receiver Jalen Reagor, and running back Miles Sanders should be over the respective ankle, thumb and knee injuries that sidelined them for weeks.

With all these players on the field, Wentz will have the best collection of skill-position players he has had all year.

Third, Wentz is on the positive side of his career splits.

  • Favorite (41 games): 20.3 DraftKings points | +2.12 Plus/Minus
  • Underdog (24 games): 17.5 DraftKings points | +0.92 Plus/Minus

Ten weeks into the season, this is the best spot Wentz has been in all year.

It’s easy to look at what Wentz has done since returning from the knee injury that ended his 2017 season and say, “Meh.” There’s nothing exceptional about his 2018-20 mark of 6.9 AY/A.

But over the past two-plus seasons, Wentz has been a fantasy QB1 in 51% of his games (excluding his injury-shortened playoff appearance last season).

Wentz has an NFL-high 12 interceptions, so I don’t want to give the impression that he’s great.

But he’s good enough to exploit a plus matchup, and that’s what he has against the Giants.

Wentz is a borderline QB1/2 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 quarterback in the Hodge Model for DraftKings.

Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some quarterbacks I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (-13.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51.5 O/U): The Packers have a slate-high 33-point implied Vegas total, and the Jaguars are No. 32 with a 36.5% pass-defense DVOA. At home, Rodgers is an A-graded 55-31-3 ATS (24.4%). You can bet on this game at William Hill.



Rodgers has a league-high four games with four touchdowns passing, and his elite 9.4 AY/A surpasses the mark of 9.2 he hit in his 2011 MVP season.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Los Angeles Rams (55.5 O/U): The Rams are No. 5 with a 68.5 PFF coverage grade, and shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give No. 1 wide receiver D.K. Metcalf all he can handle, but Wilson should still ball out. He has been a fantasy QB1 in every game this year.

Wilson is No. 2 among all quarterbacks with 9.4 expected fantasy points over expectation per game.

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (53 O/U): Without former No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Watson has continued to put up fantasy points and actually been more efficient on a per-pass basis.

After a brutal season-opening stretch against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers, Watson has averaged 316.8 yards and 2.6 touchdowns passing over the past five games.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (50 O/U): Home at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, Brees could go off against a 49ers defense that might be without seven key players.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) & Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) & K’Waun Williams (ankle)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (toe)

With the return of top wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders last week, Brees had 22.7 fantasy points on 222-4-0 passing on the road against a tough Buccaneers defense.



Matthew Freedman is 728-572-28 (56.0%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals
Photo credit: Norm Hall/Getty Images 

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The Week 10 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 10 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday morning).

  • Kyler Murray: No. 1
  • Josh Allen: No. 2
  • Jared Goff: No. 7
  • Derek Carr: No. 11
  • Carson Wentz: No. 12

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Kyler Murray: Arizona Cardinals (-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (56 Over/Under)

Through the first eight games of the season, Murray is doing his best 2019 Lamar Jackson impersonation, producing as both a passer and runner.

  • Week 1 (at SF): 26.3 fantasy points | 230-1-1 passing | 13-91-1 rushing
  • Week 2 (vs. WAS): 32.1 fantasy points | 286-1-1 passing | 8-67-2 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. DET): 21.7 fantasy points | 270-2-3 passing | 5-29-1 rushing
  • Week 4 (at CAR): 23.1 fantasy points | 133-3-0 passing | 6-78-0 rushing
  • Week 5 (at NYJ): 26.3 fantasy points | 380-1-1 passing | 9-31-1 rushing
  • Week 6 (at DAL): 28.9 fantasy points | 188-2-0 passing | 10-74-1 rushing
  • Week 7 (vs. SEA): 37.1 fantasy points | 360-3-1 passing | 14-67-1 rushing
  • Week 9 (vs. MIA): 37.9 fantasy points | 283-3-0 passing | 11-106-1 rushing

For the season, Murray is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 32.4 fantasy points per game and 0.77 fantasy points per drop back (per Pro Football Focus).

Murray’s consistency has been unrivaled. In every game this season,  he has finished as a fantasy QB1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

His consistency in large part rests with his Konami Code running ability: Even though he is No. 29 in the league with “just” 76 carries — which is an obscene total for a quarterback — Murray is No. 8 with 543 yards and tied for No. 3 with eight touchdowns rushing.

Among all quarterbacks, Murray is easily No. 1 with 6.4 rushing fantasy points over expectation (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).

As a passer, Murray has established an immediate connection with new No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. When targeting Nuk, Murray is 60-of-76 passing for 734-3-1 with a stellar 9.9 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A, per RotoViz AY/A App).

For context, Patrick Mahomes is No. 1 in the league with a 9.6 AY/A, which is the same mark he had in his 2018 MVP season. Whenever Murray has targeted his No. 1 receiver, he has displayed super-Mahomes efficiency.

One potential issue issue is that Hopkins is likely to face 2019 All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White in shadow coverage. While that’s unfortunate for Hopkins, that probably won’t matter much for Murray.

Last week, in the shadow coverage of Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, Hopkins had a season-worst 3-30-0 receiving performance on three targets. Even so, Murray was still the No. 1 fantasy quarterback on the slate.

Although they were No. 4 with a 90.2 PFF coverage grade just last year, the Bills in 2020 do not have an imposing defense. Almost every non-Sam Darnold quarterback to face them this year has had success.

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (Week 2): 24.3 fantasy points | 328-2-0 passing | 3-12-0 rushing
  • Jared Goff (Week 3): 27.2 fantasy points | 321-2-1 passing | 2-4-1 rushing
  • Derek Carr (Week 4): 20.4 fantasy points | 311-2-0 passing | 4-20-0 rushing
  • Ryan Tannehill (Week 5): 30.0 fantasy points | 195-3-0 passing | 4-42-1 rushing
  • Patrick Mahomes (Week 6): 20.6 fantasy points | 225-2-0 passing | 10-36-0 rushing
  • Cam Newton (Week 8): 18.4 fantasy points | 174-0-0 passing | 9-54-1 rushing
  • Russell Wilson (Week 9): 22.1 fantasy points | 390-2-2 passing | 2-5-1 rushing

If these guys can take it to the Bills, Murray certainly can.

It’s just an added bonus that he’s on the positive side of his splits. The sample is small, but in his four games as a home favorite Murray has dominated (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Murray leads all quarterbacks in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

What’s more, he has position-high +4.98 and +7.03 Plus/Minus values on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If the Cardinals had two more wins, he’d be a legitimate MVP candidate.

A locked-in top-three QB1 in season-long leagues, Murray is the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88, Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel. He’s also the top option in Bales and Raybon Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 10 Pro Trends.

Josh Allen: Buffalo Bills (+2) at Arizona Cardinals (56 O/U)

Through the first month of the season, Allen was the No. 2 fantasy quarterback, scoring no fewer than three total touchdowns in each game.

  • Week 1 (vs. NYJ): 28.2 fantasy points | 312-2-0 passing | 14-57-1 rushing
  • Week 2 (at MIA): 34.5 fantasy points | 415-4-0 passing | 4-19-0 rushing
  • Week 3 (vs. LAR): 31.2 fantasy points | 311-4-0 passing | 4-8-1 rushing
  • Week 4 (at LV): 25.4 fantasy points | 288-2-0 passing | 3-minus 1-1 rushing

But in the season’s second month, Allen had a sub-Daniel Jones 17.7 fantasy points per game

  • Week 5 (at TEN): 16.3 fantasy points | 263-2-2 passing | 4-18-0 rushing
  • Week 6 (vs. KC): 15.1 fantasy points | 122-2-1 passing | 8-42-0 rushing
  • Week 7 (at NYJ): 16.4 fantasy points | 307-0-0 passing | 11-61-rushing
  • Week 8 (vs. NE): 12.5 fantasy points | 154-0-1 passing | 10-23-1 rushing

In Weeks 1-4, he had an elite 10.3 AY/A. Weeks 5-8, a 5.8 AY/A.

In Week 9, though, Allen jumpstarted his ride with 415-3-0 passing and 7-14-1 rushing against the Seahawks.

This motorcycle is ready for the road.

While we shouldn’t expect Allen to have a similar performance this week, we also shouldn’t be all dissuaded by what we saw out of him in Weeks 5-8. Allen has always been better in fantasy than reality, and even when he has been average at best as an NFL player he has usually been a strong fantasy producer.

As a rookie, Allen was the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 26.6 points per game for the final six weeks of the season after returning to action from an elbow injury.

In his second season, Allen had only one game in which he finished as anything less than a fantasy QB2 (excluding his partial Week 17).

Even when he’s not good, Allen still tends to be good enough.

What makes Allen so investable is his Konami Code rushing ability and specifically his goal-line usage (per game, per Player Profiler).

  • 2019 (16 games): 6.8 carries (No. 2) | 1.4 red-zone carries (No. 2)
  • 2020 (nine games): 7.2 carries (No. 4) | 1.7 red-zone carries (No. 5)

With his rushing production, Allen has a nearly unrivaled floor/ceiling combination. No quarterback comes close to him with his 22 touchdowns rushing since 2018.

Allen has a strong matchup against the Cardinals, who are No. 23 with a 50.6 PFF coverage grade and might be without a number of cornerbacks.

Although they have Patrick Peterson, the veteran no longer possesses his three-time All-Pro form, and after him the Cardinals have serious injury issues at corner.

No. 2 corner Robert Alford (pectoral) is out for the entire season. Every-week starters Dre Kirkpatrick (thigh) and Byron Murphy (COVID-19) both missed last week and are uncertain for this week. Injury fill-in Kevin Peterson (concussion) left Week 9 early with a head injury and has no timetable to return.

And backup De’Vante Bausby was just cut by the team.

Cardinals cornerbacks. Spinal Tap drummers. They’re the same.

There are few players comparable to Allen, but the three quarterbacks with running ability to face the Cardinals this year have done well.

  • Teddy Bridgewater (Week 4): 26.2 fantasy points | 276-2-1 passing | 6-32-1 rushing
  • Russell Wilson (Week 7): 29.9 fantasy points | 388-3-3 passing | 6-84-0 rushing
  • Tua Tagovailoa (Week 9): 21.4 fantasy points | 248-2-0 passing | 7-35-0 rushing

Allen is on the positive side of his reverse home/away splits since last year (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Away (12 games): 23.5 FanDuel points | 91.7% Consistency Rating
  • Home (13 games): 18.8 FanDuel points | 53.8% Consistency Rating

And as a road underdog, Allen is 7-2-2 against the spread (ATS) for his career, good for a 41.1% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at FanDuel.

Allen is a top-five QB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 quarterback in the Hodge Model for FanDuel.

Jared Goff: Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (55.5 O/U)

It’s not a great movie, but on more than a few occasions I think about The Break-Up, specifically Vince Vaughn’s classic line of “Why would I want to do dishes?”

Indeed.

Why would I want to roster Jared Goff?

It’s all about his matchup. With a funnel defense that ranks No. 9 against the run (-21.9% DVOA) and No. 29 against the pass (23.4%), the Seahawks are utterly exploitable via the air.

In every game this season, they have allowed either 300 yards or multiple touchdowns passing.

  • Matt Ryan (Week 1): 23.9 fantasy points | 450-2-1 passing | 1-minus 1-0 rushing
  • Cam Newton (Week 2): 34.6 fantasy points | 397-1-1 passing | 11-47-2 rushing
  • Dak Prescott (Week 3): 27.5 fantasy points | 473-3-2 passing | 6-26-0 rushing
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (Week 4): 21.3 fantasy points | 315-0-2 passing | 6-47-1 rushing
  • Kirk Cousins (Week 5): 14.2 fantasy points | 249-2-1 passing | 1-2-0 rushing
  • Kyler Murray (Week 7): 37.1 fantasy points | 360-3-1 passing | 14-67-1 rushing
  • Jimmy Garoppolo & Nick Mullens (Week 8): 19.3 fantasy points | 322-2-1 passing | 4-4-0 rushing
  • Josh Allen (Week 9): 36.0 fantasy points | 415-3-0 passing | 7-14-1 rushing

Long gone is the Legion of Boom.

This season, opposing quarterbacks are No. 1 against the Seahawks with 26.7 fantasy points per game on 2,980-16-9 passing and 50-206-5 rushing.

Follow the flow chart.

Additionally, the Seahawks are dealing with major injury issues in their secondary.

Perimeter cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion/hamstring) left Week 7 early and missed Weeks 8-9. He didn’t practice at all last week, which does not bode well for his Week 10 availability.

Backup slot cornerback Ugo Amadi (hamstring) also missed Weeks 8-9 and is yet to return to practice, and Week 1 slot starter Marquise Blair (knee, IR) is already out for the year.

Wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods could gift 200 yards and three touchdowns to Goff all on their own.

Kupp especially has a great matchup in the slot, where he is slated to face third-stringer D.J. Reed Jr. On the season, Kupp has a team-high 26% market share of targets — he had an obscene 20 targets in Week 8 before the bye — and Reed has allowed 13.8 yards per target and an 85.7% catch rate in his two games with the Seahawks.

“Are you telling me that you’re upset because I don’t have a strong desire to clean dishes?”

You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of quarterbacks and pass catchers, and over the past year Goff and Kupp have had a 0.63 correlation. If Goff has a big game, Kupp probably will too. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Goff with his No. 1 receiver.

There’s nothing especially enticing about Goff this season. He’s a non-running quarterback who ranks No. 16 with a 7.5 AY/A. That doesn’t get the blood pumping.

But in his four starts against the Seahawks since 2018, Goff has averaged 331.8 yards per game and 8.9 yards per attempt. He’s more than good enough to exploit the matchup, especially given that head coach Sean McVay is coming off the bye and has had an extra week to plan for the Seahawks.

Full disclosure: I’m betting against the Rams. There’s absolutely no way I’m not taking the Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson in this spot.

For his career, Wilson is 73-56-7 ATS (10.2% ROI) in the regular season.

The Seahawks just endured a 44-34 defeat to the Bills, and Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS (27.8%) off a loss.

As an underdog, Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI). Almost all the value he has offered investors throughout his career has come when getting points.

Wilson is in a good spot.

And aside from anything to do with the Seahawks, I generally want to invest in road dogs off a loss, which I think the sports-betting public tends to undervalue. Since 2004 (when our database starts), road dogs off a loss are 764-674-39 ATS (3.4% ROI).

That might not seem great, but over a sample this large, it’s significant. Within Bet Labs, road dogs off a loss have earned an A- grade.

This looks like an angle we can exploit, especially this year, when home-field advantage has been minimized due to COVID-19 restrictions on attendance.

And if you look at the numbers, it turns out that this year has been the most profitable one for this trend. In 2020, road dogs off a loss are 26-15 ATS (22.7% ROI). You can bet on this game at DraftKings.



And last year was the third-most profitable one for this trend: 45-28-5 ATS (18.1% ROI).

Could there be a reason (other than COVID-19) for road dogs off a loss to be especially undervalued over the past two or so years?

Yes.

Going against road dogs off a loss is a square thing to do, and since last year many inexperienced bettors have entered the market as more states have legalized sports speculation. Perhaps, road dogs coming off a loss have recently been undervalued because the market has become less sophisticated with the influx of new money.

Regardless, you don’t need to twist my arm to get me to bet on Wilson in this spot. I expect the Seahawks to score points, which means I also expect Goff to have an abundance of pass attempts as the Rams try to keep pace.

And if Goff airs it out against this poor pass defense, he could be a week winner.

Goff is a mid-range QB1 and the No. 1 quarterback in the Koerner and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel. For good measure, he’s also the top option in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings.

Derek Carr: Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) vs. Denver Broncos (52 O/U)

Let’s be honest: You’re not overly desirous to read analysis on Carr, and I’m not itching to write it, so I’ll be brief.

Although more people are starting to take the Raiders and their quarterback seriously …

… Carr has excelled rather quietly for the first half of the season, pacing for career-best numbers with his 2,002-16-2 passing line. He is No. 7 in the league with an 8.7 AY/A. In every game but one he has been no worse than a fantasy QB2.

The Broncos are No. 3 with a 69.8 PFF coverage grade, so it’s not as if Carr has a highly advantageous matchup, but top cornerbacks A.J. Bouye (concussion) and Bryce Callahan (ankle) both missed Week 9 and are uncertain for Week 10.

If both corners are out for this game, Carr’s upside will be significant. In his two starts against head coach Vic Fangio’s defense last year, Carr averaged 320.5 yards per game and 9.1 yards per attempt.

Carr is a low-end QB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 quarterback in the CSURAM88, Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings.

Carson Wentz: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (Off the Board)

As of writing (Tuesday evening), this game is off the board at DraftKings because the Eagles are dealing with a COVID-19 situation coming off the Week 9 bye.

But this game is still scheduled to play, and when it was posted we saw consensus lines of -3.5 and 44.5.

There are a few reasons to be invested in Wentz this week.

First, he had his best game of the season against the Giants in Week 7 with 359-2-1 passing and 7-14-1 rushing. With a quarterback-friendly funnel defense that ranks No. 11 against the run (-16.4% DVOA) and No. 28 against the pass (21.8%), the Giants present an advantageous matchup.

Second, the Eagles should be relatively healthy coming off the Week 9 bye. Veteran wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (calf) is expected to make his 2020 debut against the Giants, and tight end Dallas Goedert, wide receiver Jalen Reagor, and running back Miles Sanders should be over the respective ankle, thumb and knee injuries that sidelined them for weeks.

With all these players on the field, Wentz will have the best collection of skill-position players he has had all year.

Third, Wentz is on the positive side of his career splits.

  • Favorite (41 games): 20.3 DraftKings points | +2.12 Plus/Minus
  • Underdog (24 games): 17.5 DraftKings points | +0.92 Plus/Minus

Ten weeks into the season, this is the best spot Wentz has been in all year.

It’s easy to look at what Wentz has done since returning from the knee injury that ended his 2017 season and say, “Meh.” There’s nothing exceptional about his 2018-20 mark of 6.9 AY/A.

But over the past two-plus seasons, Wentz has been a fantasy QB1 in 51% of his games (excluding his injury-shortened playoff appearance last season).

Wentz has an NFL-high 12 interceptions, so I don’t want to give the impression that he’s great.

But he’s good enough to exploit a plus matchup, and that’s what he has against the Giants.

Wentz is a borderline QB1/2 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 quarterback in the Hodge Model for DraftKings.

Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some quarterbacks I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (-13.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51.5 O/U): The Packers have a slate-high 33-point implied Vegas total, and the Jaguars are No. 32 with a 36.5% pass-defense DVOA. At home, Rodgers is an A-graded 55-31-3 ATS (24.4%). You can bet on this game at William Hill.



Rodgers has a league-high four games with four touchdowns passing, and his elite 9.4 AY/A surpasses the mark of 9.2 he hit in his 2011 MVP season.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Los Angeles Rams (55.5 O/U): The Rams are No. 5 with a 68.5 PFF coverage grade, and shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey will give No. 1 wide receiver D.K. Metcalf all he can handle, but Wilson should still ball out. He has been a fantasy QB1 in every game this year.

Wilson is No. 2 among all quarterbacks with 9.4 expected fantasy points over expectation per game.

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (53 O/U): Without former No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Watson has continued to put up fantasy points and actually been more efficient on a per-pass basis.

After a brutal season-opening stretch against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers, Watson has averaged 316.8 yards and 2.6 touchdowns passing over the past five games.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (50 O/U): Home at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, Brees could go off against a 49ers defense that might be without seven key players.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) & Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) & K’Waun Williams (ankle)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (toe)

With the return of top wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders last week, Brees had 22.7 fantasy points on 222-4-0 passing on the road against a tough Buccaneers defense.



Matthew Freedman is 728-572-28 (56.0%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals
Photo credit: Norm Hall/Getty Images 

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.