The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Week 9 is a lot like Week 8 — except without Antonio Brown. A FantasyLabs user won $1,000,000 on DraftKings last week, so maybe Week 9 will be alright. The Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Vikings, Bears, and Browns are on bye. The Bills and Jets (Thursday night) and Lions and Packers (Monday night) are also absent from the main slate, as are the Raiders and Dolphins (Sunday night) on DraftKings. As the ’90s poet once said, “Hearts and thoughts, they fade — fade away.”
For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday night breakdown and Justin Bailey’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 10-game DraftKings and 11-game FanDuel main slates.
The 1,500-15 Candidate A Guy Without a Quarterback
With the truncated slate and the absence or regression of a few studs, the top of the wide receiver salary scale is dominated by just one player: DeAndre Hopkins ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel).
UPDATE: 11/2 – Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson suffered a non-contact injury in practice today and will undergo a season-ending surgery to repair a torn ACL. Tom Savage ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) is expected to start for the Texans. Needless to say, the Watson injury hurts the entire Texans offense. Hopkins and Will Fuller ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) have been substantially downgraded in their projections. There is the possibility, though, that they could be contrarian plays in tournaments. The market could overreact to the Watson injury: The Texans are still significant favorites at home against a Colts defense allowing the most points in the league to opposing teams.
Hopkins has never been more expensive on DraftKings; only twice has he been more expensive on FanDuel. In Week 1, he was $3,300 and $2,000 cheaper on DraftKings and FanDuel. The price escalation he’s experienced in just two months is tremendous. I guess that’s what happens whenever one of the best receivers in the league is playing with perhaps the greatest NFL rookie in the history of the universe. Even though he’s already had his bye, Hopkins ranks in the top five with 76 targets, 45 receptions, 606 receiving yards, and 908 air yards. Among all starting wide receivers Hopkins is fourth with 2.33 yards per route run (YPRR, Pro Football Focus). After his incredible 8/224/1 performance on 11 targets last week against the tough Seahawks pass defense, Hopkins is the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 21.94 DraftKings and 17.87 FanDuel points per game (PPG) and +7.28 and +5.30 Plus/Minus values. In his six full games with Watson, Hopkins has 551 yards and six touchdowns; in his four games with both Watson and Fuller, 402 yards and six touchdowns. In NFL history, only four players have ever had a season with 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns receiving: Jerry Rice (1986, 1993, and 1995), Marvin Harrison (2001), Randy Moss (2003), and Calvin Johnson (2011). Hopkins is a legitimate candidate to join the 1,500-15 club this year.
And Fuller isn’t a slouch either. Last year he started out his rookie campaign on fire, averaging 80.75 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game before hamstring, knee, and hip injuries limited him for the rest of the season. After missing the first three games of 2017 with a collarbone injury, Fuller has returned in peak form with 288 yards and seven touchdowns in four games. Fuller is top-10 among starting wide receivers with 2.15 YPRR, and he’s first with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 21.7 yards. Hopkins and Fuller are market share monsters — they are tied for the league lead with seven touchdowns receiving, combining for 73.7 percent of Watson’s aerial scores — and so far Hopkins and Fuller have complemented (instead of cannibalized) each other: They have team-high 0.79 and 0.83 correlation coefficients on DraftKings and FanDuel. Use our Lineup Builder to stack Nuk and Fuller in tournaments.
Even though they have elevated salaries, Hopkins and Fuller will be popular this week for several reasons: The Texans are first by a mile with their +10.54 Vegas Plus/Minus and +14.86 Over/Under Differential, and they lead the league with 30.71 PPG. The Texans have a slate-high implied total of 31.25 points as -13.0 home favorites, and they’re second on the slate with a 49.5-point over/under. And Hopkins and Fuller have a great matchup. Dreadful on defense, the Colts are last in the league with 30.75 PPG allowed and a -6.5 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus, and they’re 30th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Even worse, their two highest-rated Pro Football Focus (PFF) defensive backs — free safety Malik Hooker (knee) and cornerback Rashaan Melvin (concussion) — are out: Hooker is on Injured Reserve and Melvin missed last week. Melvin might return this week, but without Hooker and Melvin in Week 8 the Indianapolis dime package had five players with poor PFF grades below 60.0. This is a #SmashSpot. Fuller is the second coming of Odell Beckham Jr., and Hopkins is tied for the position lead with six Pro Trends at FanDuel, where he somehow leads all receivers with a 96 percent Bargain Rating. Hopkins has the position’s highest median and ceiling projections in our Models.
Fly Patterns
Doug Baldwin ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Paul Richardson ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel), and Tyler Lockett ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): The Seahawks are implied for 26.25 points as -7.5 home favorites, and after a slow start to the season they’ve averaged 30.8 PPG over their last five contests. The Redskins have held opposing wide receivers to bottom-six marks of 24.4 DraftKings and 19.9 FanDuel PPG, but they have the third-highest variance in weekly DVOA performance. In any given game, they can implode. Baldwin has 11 targets per game since the Seahawks returned from bye two weeks ago, and Redskins slot defender Kendall Fuller has been the most targeted and exploited of Washington’s three cornerbacks, allowing 0.86 yards per snap in coverage. The addition of left tackle Duane Brown should only help the team’s pass offense, which has averaged 330.4 yards and 2.8 touchdowns since Week 3.
Devin Funchess ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), Russell Shepard ($3,100 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel), and Curtis Samuel ($3,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): All of these guys have a post-Kelvin Benjamin discount, and the Panthers are -1.0 home favorites against the Falcons, who are 25th in pass DVOA and 32nd with 6.7 plays per drive allowed.
Larry Fitzgerald ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), John Brown ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Jaron Brown ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel), and J.J. Nelson ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): The Cardinals are disadvantaged in that Drew Stanton is now starting in place of the injured Carson Palmer (arm), but they are -2.5 favorites against the 49ers, who are 27th in pass DVOA and now without former starters in free safety Jimmie Ward (arm) and cornerback Rashard Robinson (trade). Coming off a bye, the Cardinals should be rested and prepared. Slot corner K’Wuan Williams has allowed receptions at a league-high rate of one per 5.7 coverage snaps. Even with Stanton, Fitz could crush.
Alshon Jeffery ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel), Nelson Agholor ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel), and Torrey Smith ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): The Eagles are implied for 25.5 points as -8.0 home favorites. Against the Broncos, though, the Eagles wide receivers could struggle. The Broncos have held opposing receiver groups to bottom-four marks of 23.8 DraftKings and 19.6 FanDuel PPG. With Agholor playing primarily in the slot, he figures to run most of his routes against Chris Harris Jr., so Alshon might be the preferred option of the two, given that he will likely run more of his routes lined up on the left against Bradley Roby than Aqib Talib.
Demaryius Thomas ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Brock Osweiler is once against the starting quarterback for the Broncos. In the Wizard’s eight games as the primary quarterback in 2015, Thomas averaged 5.5 receptions and 69.9 yards. With 2015 Peyton Manning, he averaged 7.6 receptions and 93.1 yards.With Oz, Sanders averaged 4.3 and 70.9; with Manning, 5.8 and 79.9 — and, remember, this was when Manning was basically at his worst. As bad as Trevor Siemian has been, Osweiler might be worse.
T.Y. Hilton ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): [Insert official music video of Sarah McLachlan’s “Angel.”] Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Hilton leads the position with six DraftKings Pro Trends. He’s on the road, but at least he’s in a dome. In the Bill O’Brien era, Hilton has 5.5 receptions and 92.3 yards receiving against the Texans and 4.9 and 79.4 against all other opponents.
Tyreek Hill ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): In his last 16 regular season games, Hill has turned 110 targets, 25 carries, 35 punt returns, and four kick returns into 1,156 scrimmage yards, 77 receptions, and 12 all-purpose touchdowns. Hill is likely to run many of his routes against left cornerback Anthony Brown, who has allowed 24 receptions and four touchdowns on 39 targets.
Julio Jones ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): Under former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, Julio had 11.1 targets per game. With new OC Steve Sarkisian, Julio has eight. With Shanny, Julio had 5.2 first-down targets per game; with Sark, Julio has 3.4. On the one hand, Julio is tied for the position lead with six Pro Trends at FanDuel. On the other hand, Julio has basically turned into 2016 Hopkins with even fewer targets. Against the Panthers, he’s likely to see shadow coverage from cornerback James Bradberry, who somewhat successfully shadowed Evans last week.
Marquise Goodwin ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) and Aldrick Robinson ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): Pierre Garcon (neck) has just been sent to the Injured Reserve. Goodwin and Robinson should both get a big boost in target volume, although one of them — perhaps Goodwin, the ostensible No. 1 receiver — could be shadowed by stud cornerback Patrick Peterson. In Robinson’s five career games with at least 70.0 percent of the offensive snaps played — and all of these games have been under Shanahan — he has averaged 10.96 DraftKings and 8.66 FanDuel PPG.
Dez Bryant ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) and Terrance Williams ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Stud cornerback Marcus Peters plays almost exclusively at left cornerback; Kenneth Acker played mostly at right corner after Terrance Mitchell was benched last week. Whoever starts opposite Peters — that’s the guy whom Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is going to target, and Bryant and Williams will be the receivers for most of those passes.
Mike Evans ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel), DeSean Jackson ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel), and Adam Humphries ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): The Buccaneers are theoretically in a good situation at the Coors Field of fantasy football, but the Saints defense — which was a bottom-five unit in four of the five previous seasons — has become solid, especially against the pass, ranking fourth in pass DVOA. The outside cornerbacks in particular have stabilized the pass defense, as the rookie Marshon Lattimore and second-year Ken Crawley have emerged as top-20 PFF cover men. Humphries, though, is intriguing in the slot, as he’ll run the supermajority of his routes against Kenny Vaccaro, who has transitioned (read: been demoted) to slot corner from strong safety and is easily the weakest member of the Saints secondary with a PFF grade of 39.3.
A.J. Green ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Green is second and fourth in the league with 44 and 30 percent shares of his team’s air yards and targets, and since Bill Lazor took over as the play caller in Week 3 he’s averaged 9.4 targets per game for 5.6 receptions, 86.2 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns. The problem with Green is that the Bengals are +4.5 road underdogs against the Jaguars, who have the league’s best cornerback duo in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Through eight weeks, Ramsey and Bouye have allowed just 37 receptions, 477 yards, and no touchdowns on 87 targets (PFF). Despite his matchup, however, he could have a good game. Of all the wide receivers to play the Jags, the two most similar to Green (in terms of opportunity and ability) are Brown and Hopkins, who combined for an average of 23.60 DraftKings and 17.85 FanDuel PPG. Green still has upside against the Jags, but his ownership will be reduced. Green is a contrarian pivot play this week.
DeVante Parker ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) and Jarvis Landry ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Available on the FanDuel but not the DraftKings main slate, Parker and Landry get the benefit of facing an Oakland defense that is last in the league in pass DVOA. With running back Jay Ajayi traded to Philadelphia, the Miami offense might rely more on the pass than it usually does.
Amari Cooper ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) and Michael Crabtree ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Available on the FanDuel but not the DraftKings main slate, the Raiders are -3.0 road favorites against the Dolphins, who have a significantly pass-flowing funnel defense that is third against the run but 28th against the pass in DVOA. This is the perfect spot for Cooper to cost CSURAM88 another house.
The Model Wide Receivers
There are currently two wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Michael Thomas ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- Marqise Lee ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
The Saints are -7.0 home favorites implied for 28.5 points against the Buccaneers, who are 31st in pass DVOA. In previous seasons, this would’ve been a #SmashSpot for quarterback Drew Brees and his receivers. It’s still a good spot for Thomas as well as Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Brandon Coleman ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel), and Willie Snead ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) — the Bucs are likely to be without their top cover man in Brent Grimes (shoulder) — but the Saints this year are more of a running team, ranking 13th with a 43.5 percent rush rate. As a result, Brees is averaging just 35.4 pass attempts per game compared to 41.5 for the previous five seasons, so there’s less fantasy goodness to go around for his receivers. Nevertheless, the Bucs are 27th in pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, and Thomas leads the Saints with 62 targets, 42 receptions, 480 receiving yards, and 616 air yards. On the Week 9 Daily Fantasy Flex there was some disagreement regarding Thomas: I think he’s a smidgen risky given his salary and ownership projection, but CSURAM88 loves him. Coors Lights are now at stake. Thomas is tied for the position lead with six Pro Trends at FanDuel, where he’s the consensus top wide receiver in the Pro Models. He’s also the top DraftKings receiver in the Levitan Model.
A couple times per yer, like an incurable herpes, Lee pops up in our Pro Models. He’s the virus in the system. Just wait a week and he’ll go away. There’s not much to be excited about for Lee as well as Allen Hurns ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) and Dede Westbrook ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel). The Jags are -4.5 home favorites and will likely rely on the run, given that they are first in the league with a 53.1 percent rush rate. ‘Quarterback’ Blake Bortles has thrown only nine touchdowns all year — and seven of those have gone to non-wide receivers. The Bengals have held opposing receiver units to bottom-five fantasy marks of 24.1 DraftKings and and 19.6 FanDuel PPG. Basically, the Jags receivers are underwhelming — but their horridness is priced into their salaries, and Lee leads the team with 46 targets, 363 receiving yards, 572 air yards, 179 yards after the catch, and a 12.4-yard aDOT. If he’s able to turn just a few targets into receptions, Lee will hit value on DraftKings, where he’s the highest-rated receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, and SportsGeek Models.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 9 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
