The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Week 9 is a lot like Week 8 — except without Rob Gronkowski. A FantasyLabs user won $1,000,000 on DraftKings last week, so maybe Week 9 will be alright. The Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Vikings, Bears, and Browns are on bye. The Bills and Jets (Thursday night) and Lions and Packers (Monday night) are also absent from the main slate, as are the Raiders and Dolphins (Sunday night) on DraftKings. As the ’90s poet once said, “Hearts and thoughts, they fade — fade away.”
For analysis of the Sunday and Monday night games, see Justin Bailey’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 10-game DraftKings and 11-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Two
Without Gronk in the slate, we have a clear tier of two players atop the tight end salary scale:
- Zach Ertz ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- Travis Kelce ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Once more unto the breach, dear friends.
“Everybody Ertz Sometimes”
Ertz (hamstring) was added to the injury report in the middle of week and was limited in Thursday’s practice, but he seems likely to play. Be sure to monitor his situation. If he plays, he’s in a great spot. The Eagles are implied for 25.25 points as -7.5 home favorites against the Broncos, who last year were fifth against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). This year, however, with the departure of strong safety T.J. Ward via free agency, the Broncos are 27th. Ertz has a great matchup, as strong safety Darian Stewart and safety/linebacker Will Parks have allowed 72.1 percent of the 43 passes thrown into their coverage to be completed (Pro Football Focus). As discussed on the Week 9 Daily Fantasy Flex, this is a #SmashSpot for Ertz.
Over his last 16 outings, Ertz has turned 8.9 targets per game into a 6.1/68.6/0.63 stat line. In his 10 games since last year without former teammate Jordan Matthews, Ertz has functioned as the team’s slot man, turning 9.5 targets per game into a 6.5/74.6/0.9 line. Ertz is a target share monster — he leads the Eagles with a 0.24 target share — and he’s a top-three fantasy tight end along with Gronk and Kelce. Because of his elevated salary and the availability of some cheaper tight ends with upside, we’re projecting Ertz for moderate ownership, which makes him intriguing as a potential stacking partner with quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles are top-five with 29.0 points per game (PPG) and a +4.56 Vegas Plus/Minus: They offer a lot of upside at low ownership against the Broncos. Use our Lineup Builder to stack Carson and Ertz in tournaments. Ertz is tied for a position-high six Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Bales, Levitan, and SportsGeek Models.
Mount Olympus, Kansas City
Zeus leads the Chiefs with 59 targets, 44 receptions, 556 receiving yards, and four touchdowns receiving; he’s second to wide receiver Tyreek Hill with 550 air yards and third to Hill and running back Kareem Hunt with 207 yards after the catch. At worst, Kelce is the 1B to Hill’s 1A. Kelce has run 270 routes this year: 67 were were as an inline tight end, but 133 were from the slot, 68 were out wide, and two were from the backfield. Kelce is PFF’s No. 1 tight end with an overall grade of 88.6, but when the Chiefs intend to use him as a pass catcher he’s less of a tight end and more of a big-bodied wide receiver. The Chiefs line him up wherever they want or need to in order to get him the ball.
Kelce’s spot isn’t as good as Ertz’s, but it’s still decent. The Chiefs are implied for 25.5 points as +1.0 road dogs against the Cowboys in a game that has a slate-high 52.0-point over/under. In any given game, Kelce has the capability to go Zeus Mode on a defense: No player this year has more games with at least 100 yards and a touchdown than Kelce has with three — and that includes wide receivers and running backs. The Cowboys are 29th in pass DVOA against tight ends: Kelce has 100-yard, mutli-touchdown upside this week. Kelce is tied with Ertz with a position-high six Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he leads the slate with a 100 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the CSURAM88 Model.
The Dumpoff Pass
Jimmy Graham ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): After a slow start to the season, Graham and the Seahawks have been running hot for their last five games. Seattle is averaging 30.8 PPG and Graham has a 24/260/4 receiving line on 36 targets over the last month and a half. Graham is second on the team with 45 targets, 28 receptions, 114 yards after the catch, and four touchdowns receiving. Amazingly, he leads the league with nine targets inside the 10-yard line. The Seahawks are implied for 26.25 points as -7.5 home favorites, and Graham has smashed with Seattle as a home favorite (+3.14 DraftKings and +2.89 FanDuel Plus/Minus values). Graham is in a great spot. He’s tied for a position-high six Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he’s facing the Redskins, who have a tight end-flowing aerial funnel on defense, ranking sixth, seventh, and 12th in pass DVOA against primary, secondary, and supplementary wide receivers but 28th in pass DVOA against tight ends.
Delanie Walker ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Walker has underwhelmed this season, but much of his fantasy underperformance is tied to his failure to reach the end zone. As the primary receiver from the Titans in 2014-16, Walker had 7.6 targets per game and 8.15 yards per target; this year, he has seven targets per game and 6.61 yards per target. That dip in volume and efficiency isn’t insignificant, but the real shortfall has to do with his 0.0 percent touchdown rate. As long as Walker continues to get his targets, he’s likely to progress toward his 2014-16 rate of 4.99 percent. The Titans are -3.5 home favorites against the Ravens, who (like the Redskins) have a tight end-flowing aerial funnel on defense, ranking first, third, and 16th in pass DVOA against primary, secondary, and supplementary wide receivers but dead last in pass DVOA against tight ends. Even with his dip in production, Walker still leads the Titans with 49 targets and 32 receptions. He could crush.
Jason Witten ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Witten has had an up-and-down season, but he leads the Cowboys with 34 receptions and is second with 47 targets, 314 yards receiving, and three touchdowns receiving. He’s pacing for his best season since 2014, his last Pro-Bowl campaign. The Cowboys are implied for 26.5 points as -1.0 home favorites. With nine red zone targets, #DadRunner always has a chance to score.
Cameron Brate ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) and O.J. Howard ($2,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Brate has run 152 of his 196 routes either from the slot or out wide. Playing at the Coors Field of fantasy football, Brate has a great matchup against strong safety Vonn Bell, slot corner/strong safety Kenny Vaccaro, and outside linebackers A.J. Klein and Manti Te’o, all of whom have have poor PFF grades well under 50.0. Howard has done little in the NFL besides score three wide-open touchdowns that were the result of strong play design — but he could get another wide-open score this week against these subpar pass defenders. Howard leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Marcedes Lewis ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): The Jaguars have only nine receiving touchdowns on the season — and four of them belong to Lewis. The Jags are implied for 22.25 points as -5.5 home favorites against the Bengals, who are 26th in pass DVOA.
Evan Engram ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall suffered season-ending ankle injuries in Week 5, and Sterling Shepard was also out in Weeks 6-7 with an ankle injury, which forced the Giants to use Engram as the No. 1 receiver for two games. After a Week 8 bye, Shepard is expected to play this week, but Engram will likely still experience heavy usage. Engram has at least five targets for four receptions and 40 yards receiving in six of seven games played. The rookie might struggle versus Rams linebacker/safety Mark Barron and strong safety Lamarcus Joyner, both of whom have good PFF grades above 80.0 — the Rams are fourth against the position in pass DVOA — but Engram leads the Giants with 53 targets, 30 receptions, 342 receiving yards, 166 yards after the catch, and three receiving touchdowns. He can’t be overlooked.
Vernon Davis ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Jordan Reed (hamstring) is expected to miss this week, and Davis has stark Reed splits with Washington: 3.4 targets for 2.5/38.1/0.06 in 17 games with Reed; 4.6 targets for 3.8/49/0.4 in five games without Reed. Davis will likely have double-digit ownership rates — but he’s facing a Seahawks team that’s first in pass DVOA against tight ends thanks to the shutdown capabilities of strong safety Kam Chancellor. Davis could struggle.
Tyler Higbee ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) and Gerald Everett ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): The Rams are -3.5 road favorites against the Giants, who have allowed top-two fantasy marks to opposing tight ends with 18.2 DraftKings and 15.2 FanDuel PPG. The Giants have a league-high seven touchdowns allowed to the position in seven games. If you’re looking for a punt play at the position, it’s probably Higbee, who’s played on 75.3 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps. If Everett stole a touchdown, that wouldn’t be a surprise. He has four red zone targets in the last four games.
The Model Tight Ends
Besides Ertz and Kelce, there are three tight ends atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Jack Doyle ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
- Ryan Griffin ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
- Ben Watson ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
Doyle is coming off a massive 12/121/1 performance on 14 targets, and we’re projecting him to be one of the highest-owned players at the position this week. Like Kelce, Doyle as a pass catcher is less of a tight end and more of a wide receiver, running 73.7 percent of his routes when lined up in the slot or out wide. Functioning as the security blanket for quarterback Jacoby Brissett, Doyle has a low average depth of target of 5.7 yards, which has helped him convert 76.4 percent of his targets into a team-high 42 receptions. Facing the Texans, who have allowed top-eight fantasy marks of 14.9 DraftKings and 12.1 FanDuel PPG to the position, Doyle is the highest-rated DraftKings tight end in the Bales and Levitan Models.
Griffin looked a lot better in the Models yesterday, before quarterback Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending knee injury, but the Texans are still implied for 26.5 points as -7.0 home favorites against a Colts team with a league-worst 30.75 PPG allowed and -6.5 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. Griffin has been Houston’s primary tight end since Week 3, playing on 89.0 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. Although Griffin has had only intermittent NFL success throughout his five-year career, he did have a career-best 50/442/2 receiving line last year on 74 targets, and as a senior at Connecticut in 2012 he had a Gronk-esque 60 percent of his team’s receiving touchdowns. Since playing as the primary tight end, Griffin is second on the team with 25 targets and 13 receptions. Griffin is the highest-rated DraftKings tight end in the SportsGeek Model.
Never do I wake up thinking, “Finally, today I get to write about Ol’ Benjamin,” but that’s life. A first-round draft pick in 2003, Watson wears jock straps older than David Njoku and has forgotten more football knowledge than most quarterbacks have ever known. Although the idea of rostering Watson might seem laughable, he’s second on the Ravens with 39 targets, 31 receptions, 220 yards, and two touchdowns. He leads the team with six targets inside the 10-yard line and has a 79.5 percent catch rate. The Ravens could have a pass-leaning game script for much of the contest as +3.5 road dogs, and the Titans are 23rd against the position in pass DVOA. Watson is the highest-rated DraftKings tight end in the CSURAM88 Model.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the tight ends for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 9 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
