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Week 9 is a lot like Week 8 — except without Le’Veon Bell. Of course, a FantasyLabs user won $1,000,000 on DraftKings last week, so maybe Week 9 will be alright. The Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Vikings, Bears, and Browns are on bye. The Bills and Jets (Thursday night) and Lions and Packers (Monday night) are also absent from the main slate, as are the Raiders and Dolphins (Sunday night) on DraftKings. As the ’90s poet once said, “Hearts and thoughts, they fade — fade away.”
For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday night breakdown and Justin Bailey’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 10-game DraftKings and 11-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Four
Even without Bell and LeSean McCoy, this slate has a clear cohort atop the running back salary scale. Of course, “clear cohort” is a relative term, given that the best back in the slate is officially suspended and seems increasingly unlikely to play.
- Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)
- Kareem Hunt ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
- Todd Gurley ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
- Leonard Fournette ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Bang a gong.
The Wasteland
UPDATE: 11/3 – Elliott has been granted a temporary stay of his suspension by the Second Circuit Court and is now eligible to play in Week 9. Zeke is once again in our Models.
As I write this, Zeke’s six-game suspension is back in effect as Judge Katherine Failla of the Southern District of New York has dissolved his temporary restraining order and denied a motion for an emergency injunction. Zeke and/or his lawyers and/or the NFL Players Association and/or proponents of #TeamJamEmIn have appealed to the Second Circuit and asked for an emergency injunction, but it’s not certain that a ruling will be rendered before the Cowboys’ game on Sunday afternoon. In short, Zeke is currently not in our Models; we’re projecting Alfred Morris ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) and Darren McFadden ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) to be the primary runners for Dallas this week.
If, however, Zeke is able to play, he’ll likely be popular. Zeke’s been Le’Veon-esque this season: He’s played an impressive 83.8 percent of the offensive snaps, and after a slow-ish start (14.10 DraftKings and 10.35 FanDuel PPG in Weeks 1-2) he’s smashed in his last five games, turning 131 carries and 10 receptions into 738 yards and eight touchdowns. His efficiency has taken a hit (5.1 yards per carry in 2016; 4.2 in 2017), but he’s getting even more opportunities per game than he got last year: 27.1 vs. 24.1. Additionally, Zeke — or whoever serves as the lead back — is in a decent spot. The Cowboys are at home and implied for 25.0 points as +1.0 dogs to the Chiefs, who are 31st against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Considering that they’re dogs, the Dallas backs have a great matchup. It’s anyone’s guess as to how this backfield will split in Zeke’s absence, but both ALF and DMC will have elevated ownership if Zeke is out.
Kareem the Dream
Regession, thy name is Kareem. After looking like the greatest rookie running back of all time through the first month (7.4 yards per carry, 659 scrimmage yards, six touchdowns), Kareem has been sort of (but not really) good-ish over the past month (3.4 yards per carry, 411 scrimmage yards, zero touchdowns). Hunt in his last four outings has averaged just 14.78 DraftKings and 12.15 FanDuel points per game (PPG) with -5.74 and -4.79 Plus/Minus values and 0.0 percent Consistency Ratings. Those numbers are #notgood. That said, it’s hard to throw shade at a guy who leads the league with 1,070 scrimmage yards and has been getting 22.25 opportunities per game. Plus, Hunt has had tough matchups over the past month, facing three top-10 run DVOA defenses (Texans, Steelers, and Broncos) in that span. Good running backs can struggle in bad spots.
This week Hunt has a great matchup. The Chiefs are -1.0 road favorites against the Cowboys, who are 30th in rush DVOA and 20th in pass DVOA against running backs, and the Kansas City-Dallas game leads the slate with a 51.0-point over/under. Dominating touches in the Chiefs backfield — he has 146 carries on the season; No. 2 running back Charcandrick West has five — Kareem is still Cream. Hunt has the slate’s highest ceiling projection on DraftKings and is the CSURAM88 Model’s highest-rated back on FanDuel.
The Best Running Back in Los Angeles
Fresh off a bye, Gurley gets the honor of facing a Giants defense that is 24th in rush DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA against running backs. The Rams are -3.5 road favorites and will likely have positive game script for much of the contest, which should provide Gurley with ample opportunity to add to his league-leading eight touchdowns. While the Giants haven’t faced many alpha backs this year, the two they have faced — Zeke and MG3 — absolutely smashed them with a combined 29.65 DraftKings and 23.90 FanDuel PPG and +12.61 and +10.04 Plus/Minus values. Even if the Rams fall behind in the game, Gurley should still be involved, as he’s been just as productive as a receiver (27/293/3 on 38 targets) as the Rams’ most productive wide receiver in Cooper Kupp (23/316/3 on 42 targets).
Gurley this year has been a revelation with 26.1 opportunities per game, 5.0 yards per opportunity, and a 4.4 percent touchdown rate; last year through seven games those numbers were 23, 3.5, and 1.9. The big difference with Gurley this year isn’t in volume; it’s in efficiency. Thanks to new head coach Sean McVay, improved quarterback play, and an overhauled offensive line — as well as some understandable progression (5.1 yards per opportunity in 2015; 3.6 last year) — Gurley has rediscovered the Pro-Bowl form he had as a rookie. Playing on 79.6 percent of the snaps, Gurley leads the Rams with a 47.1 percent share of his team’s offensive touchdowns and has at least 18 opportunities in each game. Even if he’s not efficient against the Giants, Gurley still has 100-yard, multi-touchdown upside. The Rams are second in the league with 30.29 PPG and a +7.36 Vegas Plus/Minus, and Gurley has the position’s highest median projections in our Models.
Zeke the Second
Fournette (ankle) exited Week 6 early and sat out Week 7 due to the same injury issues that hampered him in college, so his situation should be monitored throughout the week, but after getting a Week 8 bye Fournette is expected to play in Week 9. The Jags are -4.5 home favorites against the Bengals, who are 10th in rush DVOA, so Fournette doesn’t have a great matchup, but the two alpha backs to face the Bengals (Le’Veon and Shady) did well, averaging 20.05 DraftKings and 16.30 FanDuel PPG. Given that the Jaguars lead the league with a 53.1 percent rush rate and +11.71 Spread Differential, Fournette seems likely to score a touchdown in his seventh straight game.
While Hunt has gotten a lot of hype in the first half of his impressive rookie campaign, Fournette has been almost as good. He’s to 2017 what Zeke was to 2016. Overdrafted with the No. 4 pick to serve as the lead back on a defense-driven ball-control team, Fournette has been all that the Jaguars and fantasy players could’ve hoped he’d be. Fournette is first in the league with 99.3 yards and six touchdowns rushing, and he’s been an effective receiver out of the backfield, converting 75.0 percent of his 20 targets into receptions. Through six games last year, Zeke had 137 carries and 11 receptions for 801 yards and five touchdowns. Through six games, Fournette has 130 carries and 15 receptions for 732 yards and seven touchdowns. Fournette is Zeke II.
Up the Gut
Lamar Miller ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): The Texans are implied for a slate-high 31.0 points as -13.0 home favorites against a Colts team that has allowed a league-high 30.75 points to opponents and is ranked 32nd in pass DVOA against running backs. Miller gets the benefit of playing with quarterback Deshaun Watson, who might be the greatest rookie in the history of the universe, and the Texans have a league-high +10.54 Vegas Plus/Minus. Miller is averaging 21.2 opportunities per game in Watson’s six starts, and he has nine touches inside the 10-yard line in his last four games. As a home favorite with the Texans, Miller has averaged 17.46 DraftKings and 15.24 FanDuel PPG. Miller and Watson are highly correlated with DraftKings and FanDuel correlation coefficients of 0.54 and 0.56. Use our Lineup Builder to create contrarian rosters with Watson-Miller stacks.
UPDATE: 11/2 – Watson suffered a non-contact injury in practice today and will undergo a season-ending surgery to repair a torn ACL. Tom Savage ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) is expected to start for the Texans. Needless to say, the Watson injury hurts the entire Texans offense. Miller has been substantially downgraded in his projection. There is the possibility, though, that he could be a contrarian play in tournaments. The market could overreact to the Watson injury: The Texans are still significant favorites at home against a Colts defense allowing the most points in the league to opposing teams.
Devonta Freeman ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) and Tevin Coleman ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): It’s easy to overlook Freeman given that Atlanta is implied for just 21.5 points as +1.0 road underdogs and that the Panthers have held opposing backfields to the fourth-fewest fantasy points with 18.7 DraftKings and 15.9 FanDuel PPG, but he has 83.6 yards and 0.71 touchdowns from scrimmage per game this year. Since Freeman entered the league in 2014, no running back has scored more touchdowns than his 34. Freeman (shoulder) is dealing with a minor injury, but he seems likely to play this week. If he doesn’t, Coleman will become an enticing option in all formats.
Joe Mixon ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): I know I said something like this last week, but if ever there were a week for Mixon truthers to hope for a breakout, it’s this one. The Bengals are +4.5 road dogs against the Jags, who have held opposing teams to a league-low 15.71 PPG, but they also own the league’s largest run-flowing funnel defense, which ranks first against the pass and last against the run in DVOA. No team has allowed more rushing yards per game to running backs than the Jags have with their 121.1, and Mixon has led the Bengals backs with 16.2 touches per game in his five outings with Bill Lazor as the offensive coordinator.
Carlos Hyde ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Hyde leads the league with 10 carries inside the five-yard line, and aside from the Week 5 game in which he was benched Hyde has averaged 14.9 carries and 6.4 targets per game. The 49ers are +2.5 dogs, but they’re at home and facing a Cardinals team that is last in the league with a -10.5 Spread Differential. If the 49ers keep the game close, they could grind down the clock with Hyde in the second half.
Chris Thompson ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) and Rob Kelley ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): The Redskins are +7.5 road dogs against the Seahawks and have numerous injury issues along the offensive line: Left tackle Trent Williams (knee) is doubtful and left guard Shawn Lauvao (stinger), center Spencer Long (knee), and right guard Brandon Scherff (knee) are questionable. Still, Thompson leads the position with 2.95 yards per route run (Pro Football Focus), Kelley leads the position with a 95 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating, and the Seahawks have a run-flowing funnel defense that ranks sixth against the pass and 22nd against the rush in DVOA.
Doug Martin ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Martin is at the Coors Field of fantasy football, and the Saints — even with all their improvement — have a run-flowing funnel defense that is fourth against the pass but 29th against the run in DVOA. In his four games, Martin has averaged 18.75 total opportunities and one opportunity inside the 10-yard line per game. Martin has underwhelmed over the last three weeks, but he’s also had tough matchups against top-12 run DVOA defenses in the Cardinals, Bills, and Panthers.
Eddie Lacy ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) and Thomas Rawls ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): The Seahawks are third on the slate with an implied total of 26.25 points, they’re -7.5 home favorites, they just improved their offensive line with the addition of left tackle Duane Brown, and at some point Lacy and Rawls will see some progression from their present-year 0.0 percent touchdown rates to their career averages. After a slow start to the season, the Seahawks have averaged 30.8 PPG over their last five contests.
LeGarrette Blount ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), Wendell Smallwood ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel), and Jay Ajayi ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Even though Blount leads the league with 3.96 yards after contact per carry (PFF), the Eagles on Tuesday traded a fourth-round pick for Ajayi, who presumably will replace Blount as the early-down back in Philadelphia. Available on the FanDuel but not the DraftKings main slate because of the trade, Ajayi will likely play limited snaps this week, but he’s still enough of a presence to diminish Blount and Smallwood’s ceilings even though the Eagles are -8.0 home favorites.
Kenyan Drake ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) and Damien Williams ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): In the aftermath of the Ajayi trade, both Drake and Williams are discounted relative to their potential usage. That said, the Dolphins are 31st with 3.15 adjusted line yards, and Drake and Williams collectively average 2.6 yards per carry this year and 3.7 for their careers. Maybe Ajayi (3.4 this year; 4.3 for his career) will look better in hindsight after we see Drake and Williams in extended action. At least the Raiders are 23rd in rush DVOA and pass DVOA against running backs.
Orleans Darkwa ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): As I mentioned on the Week 9 Daily Fantasy Flex, Darkwa is a potential cheap-n’-dirty pivot play. Darkwa has played only 37.4 percent of the Giants’ offensive snaps in October, but he’s averaged 15.3 opportunities per game over the last month. Of all the Giants backs, he’s the only one with a game of at least 100 scrimmage yards. In his four NFL seasons, Darkwa has had seven games with at least eight carries, averaging 63 yards and 0.57 touchdowns per game. Most importantly, Darkwa has a good matchup: The Giants are +3.5 underdogs, and the over/under for their game has dropped 2.0 points to 41.5 since opening — and none of that is good — but the Giants are at home against the Rams, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing backfields with 29.3 DraftKings and 26.0 FanDuel PPG. The Giants are coming off a bye while the Rams are traveling east for an early game. Given that Darkwa has been owned at less than 1.0 percent this year, he provides contrarian value.
Adrian Peterson ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Like Darkwa, Peterson is a potential pivot play. Peterson isn’t in a great spot with now-starter Drew Stanton at quarterback, but he has averaged 20.5 opportunities per game with the Cardinals. Coming off a bye, they are -2.5 road favorites against the winless 49ers, who are horrible against the run, allowing the most fantasy points to opposing backfields this season with 33.0 DraftKings and 28.6 FanDuel PPG. Since Jim Harbaugh left the 49ers, they have allowed 58 touchdowns to running backs in 40 games. If there were a spot for Peterson to have a multi-touchdown performance in a Stanton-‘led’ offense, it would be this one.
The Model Running Backs
Besides Hunt, there are two other running backs atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Mark Ingram ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
- Jonathan Stewart ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Ever since Peterson was traded, Ingram has been a favorite in our Models, averaging 21.7 carries and 5.3 targets for 119.7 yards, five receptions, and 1.33 touchdowns per game. Although he at some point is likely to regress toward his 2014-16 marks of 14.6 carries and 3.8 targets for 88.9 yards, 3.0 receptions, and 0.61 touchdowns per game, Ingram is in a good spot as the Saints are -7.0 home favorites and second on the slate with a 28.5-point implied total and 50.0-point over/under. The Saints are 13th with a 43.5 percent rush rate and could rely heavily on the running game against a Buccaneers defense that’s allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing backfields with 25.6 DraftKings and 21.9 FanDuel PPG. Alvin Kamara ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) is also in play: Ever since he showed in his Week 4 London performance the degree to which Peterson was expendable, Kamara has averaged eight carries and 5.75 targets per game for 17.40 DraftKings and 14.78 FanDuel PPG. Both Saints backs will be popular, especially Ingram, whom we’re projecting to be the slate’s highest-owned player. Ingram leads the position with eight DraftKings and 14 FanDuel Pro Trends and is the highest-rated back for both sites in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models and the top DraftKings back in the Bales Model.
There’s not a lot to be excited about with Stewart — he has 3.0 yards per carry and just two touchdowns this year — but he is averaging 15.1 opportunities per game, and as long as he continues to get carries his current touchdown rate of 1.65 percent seems likely to progress toward his 2014-16 mark of 2.82 percent. With Christian McCaffrey ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) failing to surpass 4.0 yards per carry in any game and serving more as a receiver than runner — he leads all backs with 66 targets and 49 receptions — Stew seems likely to continue to serve as the lead back. Nevertheless, McCaffrey is intriguing in that the trade of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin could open up more targets for him, and the Falcons have allowed a league-high 7.1 receptions per game to running backs. McCaffrey leads the position with a 99 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating, and Stewart (once again) is the highest-rated DraftKings back in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models. We call that the “Double Donk.”
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 9 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
