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Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford: $6,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
No team on the primetime slate has a Vegas total over 24 points. Matthew Stafford and the Lions are implied for the second-highest total at 22.75 points against a Packers defense that ranks 19th overall in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Stafford has struggled with accuracy this season, completing 60.4 percent of his passes (27th), but the Packers are allowing quarterbacks to complete passes at the fifth-highest rate this season. While his accuracy hasn’t been on par, he’s still limiting turnovers with a 1.5 percent interception rate. Over Stafford’s last four games against the Packers he has averaged 22.3 DraftKings points per game with a +5.25 Plus/Minus.
Derek Carr: $6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Derek Carr as a dream matchup against the Dolphins pass-funnel defense, which ranks 28th in pass DVOA and third in rush DVOA. The Dolphins are allowing quarterbacks to complete a league-high 69.9 percent of their passes and a 5.0 percent touchdown rate (10th highest), while Carr sports a 5.0 percent touchdown rate, the ninth-best rate in the league. The Raiders boast the primetime slate’s highest implied team total at 23.5 points. The main factor that could limit Carr’s output is the slow-paced nature of both teams. The Raiders rank 22nd in neutral pace and the Dolphins rank 31st (FO).
Running Backs
Aaron Jones: $6,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Aaron Jones is averaging 18.0 touches per game since taking over the Packers backfield in Week 4, and he has played at least 80 percent of the snaps in two of the last three weeks. He has a tough overall matchup as the Lions rank fifth in rush DVOA. However, the Lions have allowed running backs to score 0.61 fantasy points per attempt (seventh highest) and 0.9 rushing touchdowns per game, tied for the third highest among defenses. With nine targets in the last two games, Jones can also do some damage in the passing game as the Lions are allowing eight targets and six receptions per game to opposing backfields, although they do rank second in pass DVOA against running backs. Jones has an 86 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating.
Miami Running Backs
It’s a timeshare situation in Miami, as offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen confirmed Thursday that Damien Williams ($4,400 DraftKings, $,4500 FanDuel) and Kenyan Drake ($4,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) will both be involved in Sunday’s game. Williams projects to be the passing-down back with eight targets over his last three games. It’s a good matchup for either back as the Raiders rank 23rd in rush DVOA. Expectations should be tempered, as the Dolphins rank 31st with 3.15 adjusted line yards and are yet to score a rushing touchdown, but rostering either of these two will allow plenty of roster flexibility.
Wide Receivers
Michael Crabtree: $6,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Michael Crabtree has an excellent matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 28th in pass DVOA. While Miami is allowing only 128 receiving yards per game to receivers (11th fewest), it should be noted that teams have attempted a league-low 219 pass attempts and run the second-fewest plays (411) against them, likely due to their 31st-ranked neutral pace. While the volume has been low, they rank 31st in catch rate allowed to receivers (66 percent) and dead last with 1.9 DraftKings points per target. Crabtree is likely to run most of his routes against Xavien Howard, Pro Football Focus’ No. 111 cornerback in coverage out of 114 qualifiers.
Marvin Jones: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Marvin Jones leads the Lions with 8.2 targets per game and 40 percent of their market share of air yards over the last six games. Jones splits his routes between the left and right sides, which means he’ll see some of Davon House and Damarious Randall, PFF’s No. 75 and No. 98 cornerbacks. He should be able to take advantage of his matchups, as the Packers rank 28th in catch rate allowed to receivers (64.3 percent), 26th in receptions per game (12.6), and 23rd in DraftKings points per target (1.77). Aside from leading the Lions in targets per game over the last six weeks, Jones also is tied with Eric Ebron for a team-high 17.5 percent target share inside the red zone. He’s currently the top-ranked primetime receiver in the Levitan Model.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook: $4,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
The tight end options on the primetime slate are abysmal. Jared Cook sees the most volume (5.8 targets per game), and he has the best matchup, as the Dolphins allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Cook is seeing a respectable 16 percent target share over the last six weeks, and tight ends are being targeted at the third-highest rate against the Dolphins, who have allowed a 74.4 percent catch rate, the third-highest mark in the league.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
