The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Years from now, people will year T-shirts that say, “I survived Week 8 of the 2017 NFL season.” The Rams, Packers, Jaguars, Titans, Cardinals, and Giants are on bye. The Ravens and Dolphins (Thursday night), Vikings and Browns (London), and Chiefs and Broncos (Monday night) are absent from the main slate, as are the Steelers and Lions (Sunday night) on DraftKings. As Thomas Paine once said, “These are the slate’s that grind men’s and women’s souls.”
For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday night breakdown and Justin Bailey’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the nine-game DraftKings and 10-game FanDuel main slates.
To Gronk or not to Gronk?
Whenever Rob Gronkowski ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) is in a slate one of the first questions daily fantasy players must ask themselves is whether they wish to Gronk. When healthy, Gronk’s the Shaquille O’Neal of tight ends. He might not be the best of all time, but he’s probably the most dominant. Even though Gronk has missed 25 games in his career, no one else in the league has more than his 72 touchdowns receiving since 2010. Even with a subpar Week 1 and partial Week 4, Gronk is the No. 1 fantasy tight end, averaging 16.87 DraftKings and 13.95 FanDuel points per game (PPG) with +0.96 and +0.71 Plus/Minus values. Tied for the team lead with 47 targets, Gronk is a market share magnet.
The Patriots are third in the slate with an implied total of 28.0 points and are -7.5 home favorites, so Gronk seems to be in a good spot. That said, Gronk doesn’t have a great matchup: Strong safety Jahleel Addae is one of the better pass defenders at his position with a 78.3 Pro Football Focus grade, and the Chargers have held tight ends to the fourth-fewest fantasy points with 9.0 DraftKings and 6.7 FanDuel PPG. Still, Gronk has the highest ceiling projections in our Models, making him a desirable play for guaranteed prize pools for people who can find the salary space to roster him. Use our Lineup Builder to stack him with quarterback Tom Brady.
The Dumpoff Pass
Jimmy Graham ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): In the aggregate, Graham’s seasonal numbers don’t look great — a 24/230/2 line on 41 targets — but at least he’s getting volume: He’s second on the Seahawks with a 0.18 target share. Plus (dropped touchdowns aside) his performance has improved over his last four games: 20/221/2 on 30 targets. The Seahawks are implied for 25.75 points as -5.5 home favorites, and Graham has smashed with Seattle as a home favorite (+2.75 DraftKings and +2.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus values). That said, Graham isn’t in a great spot, as the Texans are third against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). As usual, Graham is risky for cash games but fine for tournaments.
Jordan Reed ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) and Vernon Davis ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Reed isn’t on the injury report and seems to be playing at close to full health. Davis over the last four games is second on the team with 279 receiving yards, 187 air yards, and 147 yards after the catch. The Redskins are implied for 23.75 points as +1.5 home dogs, and they have a slate-high over/under of 49.0 points. The Cowboys are 31st in pass DVOA against tight ends, and we’re projecting Reed to be popular, especially on DraftKings.
Ryan Griffin ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Griffin has been Houston’s primary tight end since Week 3, playing on 88.4 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. Although Griffin has had only intermittent NFL success throughout his five-year career, he did have a career-best 50/442/2 receiving line last year on 74 targets, and as a senior at Connecticut in 2012 he had a Gronk-esque 60 percent of his team’s receiving touchdowns. Since playing as the primary tight end, Griffin is second on the team with a 0.18 target share, 12 receptions, and 73 yards after the catch. The Texans are +5.5 road dogs against the Seahawks, who are sixth in pass DVOA against the position, so it’s not a great spot for Griffin, but at least the Texans lead the league with their +9.21 Vegas Plus/Minus and the guy throwing him the ball is perhaps the greatest NFL rookie in the history of the universe.
George Kittle ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): The 49ers are -13.0 road dogs and will need to throw against the Eagles, who have allowed top-five marks of 16.0 DraftKings and 12.6 FanDuel PPG to tight ends. An 88th percentile SPARQ-x athlete (PlayerProfiler), Kittle has adapted quickly to the NFL and been used all over the field, running more collective routes in the slot (78), out wide (20), and from the backfield (10) than as a traditional inline tight end (107). Kittle has seven targets inside the red zone in the last three weeks.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Since returning from suspension in Week 3, ASJ leads the Jets with 34 targets, 26 receptions, and three touchdowns receiving. He has five red zone targets over his last five games. New York is a +4.5 home dog, so the ASJets might benefit from a pass-leaning game script against the Falcons.
The Model Tight Ends
There are currently six — SIX! — tight ends atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Zach Ertz ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
- Hunter Henry ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
- Jason Witten ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Zach Miller ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Tyler Kroft ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
- Coby Fleener ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
Over his last 16 outings, Ertz has turned nine targets per game into a 6.4/72.5/0.56 stat line. In his nine games since last year without former teammate Jordan Matthews, Ertz has functioned as the team’s slot man, turning 9.9 targets per game into a 6.7/79.1/0.89 line. He leads the Eagles with a 0.25 target share and is almost the No. 1 fantasy tight end with 16.77 DraftKings and 13.84 FanDuel PPG. That said, Evan Silva and I disagreed on Ertz’s potential on the Week 8 Daily Fantasy Flex. My take: Although the Eagles are implied for 29.25 points as -13.0 home favorites, the 49ers (despite being 29th in pass DVOA in general) are first in pass DVOA against tight ends thanks to the play of Jaquiski Tartt, who has an 86.7 PFF grade after shifting from free safety to strong safety in the offseason. Evan’s take: It’s impossible to find fault with a tight end who puts up high-end wide receiver numbers. Ertz is tied for the position lead with seven DraftKings and nine FanDuel Pro Trends, and he leads the slate with a 100 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Levitan Model. My final Ertz thought: Given the pricing disparity, play him on FanDuel and fade on DraftKings.
After going targetless twice within the first month of the season, Henry now has 20 targets, three targets inside the 10-yard line, and 79.6 percent of the snaps played in the last three weeks, easily overtaking Antonio Gates ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) as the primary pass-catching tight end for the Chargers, who are +7.5 road dogs against the Patriots. Facing a team that has allowed top-eight marks of 14.9 DraftKings and 12.2 FanDuel PPG to the position, Henry is the highest-rated FanDuel tight end in the Bales Model for the second week in a row.
Witten has had an up-and-down season — 22 targets in Weeks 1-2, six in Weeks 3-4, and 14 in Weeks 5 and 7 — but on the whole Witten leads the Cowboys with 31 receptions and is second with 42 targets, 283 yards receiving, and three touchdowns receiving. He’s pacing for his best season since 2014, his last Pro-Bowl campaign. The Cowboys are implied for 25.25 points as -1.5 road favorites against the division rival Redskins, who have a tight end-flowing aerial funnel on defense, ranking fourth, second, and 10th in pass DVOA against primary, secondary, and supplementary wide receivers but 28th in pass DVOA against tight ends. With seven red zone targets, #DadRunner is tied for the position lead with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the CSURAM88 and SportsGeek Models.
Miller is second on the Bears with 33 targets and 20 receptions, and he’s first with 236 yards and two touchdowns receiving. On a team that’s last in the league with 190 pass attempts, that’s not bad. The Bears are +9.0 road dogs against the Saints. As much as the Bears don’t want handmaid Mitchell Trubisky to throw the ball, they could have a pass-skewed game script. While the Saints are strong at outside corner, the middle of their secondary is weak, as strong safety Vonn Bell has a 46.4 PFF grade. With an exploitable matchup, Miller is tied for the position lead with seven Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Levitan Model for the second straight week.
In place of the injured Tyler Eifert (back), Kroft has played on 92.6 percent of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps over the last four games, turning 20 targets (four in the red zone) into a 17/157/3 line. Most of that production came against the hapless Browns, but Kroft is a former third-rounder who’s exhibited some talent. The Bengals are -11.0 home favorites against the Colts, who provide Kroft with PFF’s most tight end-friendly one-on-one matchup via strong safety Matthias Fairley. Overall, the Colts are 24th in pass DVOA against tight ends, and Kroft leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Bales and SportsGeek Models.
For the second week in a row, Fleener is the highest-rated tight end in the CSURAM88 Model because he’s cheap and the Saints are implied for 28.25 points as -9.0 favorites at the Coors Field of fantasy football, where Fleener’s severe home/road splits (+2.93 DraftKings and +2.00 FanDuel Plus/Minus values at the Superdome) make him a less disgusting member of Saints GPP stacks. If it gets cheap enough, eventually sh*t smells like manure . . . which is not that bad. I don’t even mind the word “manure.” You know, it’s “noir,” which is good, and a “ma”in front of it. Ma-noir: When you consider the other choices, “manure” is actually pretty refreshing.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 8 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
