The Quarterback Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Years from now, people will year T-shirts that say, “I survived Week 8 of the 2017 NFL season.” The Rams, Packers, Jaguars, Titans, Cardinals, and Giants are on bye. The Ravens and Dolphins (Thursday night), Vikings and Browns (London), and Chiefs and Broncos (Monday night) are absent from the main slate, as are the Steelers and Lions (Sunday night) on DraftKings. As Thomas Paine once said, “These are the slate’s that grind men’s and women’s souls.”
For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday night breakdown and Justin Bailey’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the nine-game DraftKings and 10-game FanDuel main slates.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
With the truncated slate, the top of the quarterback salary scale is dominated by one player: Tom Brady ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel).
The season hasn’t gone as planned, but the Patriots enter Week 8 atop the AFC East and in a three-way tie for first place in the conference. The Pats are third on the slate with an implied total of 28.0 points as -7.5 home favorites, and their over/under of 48.5 points is the second-highest mark, so they’re in a good spot. That said, Brady has a tough matchup against the Chargers, who have held opposing quarterbacks to bottom-eight fantasy marks this season with 14.1 DraftKings and 13.8 FanDuel points per game (PPG). The Chargers have exceptional edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, both of whom have top-10 Pro Football Focus (PFF) positional grades, and not one starting defensive back in the nickel package has a PFF grade lower than 74.9. In particular, the outside corners have been strong this year. With Jason Verrett (knee) out for the season, second-year corner Trevor Williams has emerged across from shutdown shadow man Casey Hayward. Ever since Williams transitioned from the slot in Week 2, quarterbacks have struggled against the Chargers with no passer scoring more than 15.1 fantasy points. The Chargers are eighth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Of course, none of that might matter given that Brady is playing the best football of his career. After a disappointing Week 1 performance in which he completed just 44.4 percent of his passes, Brady has been on a tear over the last six weeks, throwing for 1,941 yards and 15 touchdowns with a 69.9 percent completion rate. He leads the league with 315.4 yards per game and has been playing at a peak level ever since returning from his Deflategate suspension. In his 19 regular season games since last year, Angry Tom has averaged 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A); in the half-decade prior, he averaged 8.0 AY/A. The Patriots offense is healthy, and Brady leads the league with 174 completions and 7.5 net yards per attempt. Even though the Pats have underperformed their market expectations with a -1.14 Vegas Plus/Minus, they’re still fifth in the league with 27.86 PPG. If Brady wants to throw the ball, the Chargers (like most teams) will have a hard time stopping him. Brady has the position’s highest median projections in our Models.
Hot Routes
Tyrod Taylor ($5,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): A Konami Code specialist, Tyrod leads all quarterbacks with 1,322 yards rushing since 2015 and is a go-to pay-down cash game play, especially in slates lacking a surplus of high-end options. Even without his primary receiver in tight end Charles Clay (knee), Taylor is in play against a Raiders defense that is 31st in pass DVOA. Tyrod could have a double-digit DraftKings ownership rate, and he leads the position in FanDuel Pro Trends.
Drew Brees ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): The Saints are home at the Coors Field of fantasy football and implied for 28.0 points as -9.0 favorites, but the Bears have held quarterbacks to bottom-eight fantasy marks of 14.3 DraftKings and 13.6 FanDuel PPG, and Brees is averaging just 36.7 pass attempts per game compared to 41.5 for the previous five seasons. Brees is still playing well — his 2017 AY/A of 7.7 is comparable to his half-decade (2012-16) AY/A of 7.8 — but Brees’ average of 275.3 yards per game is his lowest mark since his 2005 season with the Chargers. He has the position’s highest ceiling projection on DraftKings on account of his 300-yard upside — but that upside isn’t as high as it used to be.
Matt Ryan ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): I can’t not include Ryan, because . . . I mean . . . whatever. No team has underperformed more than the Falcons have with their -6.54 Vegas Plus/Minus. Ryan has failed to hit salary-based expectations on FanDuel in every game. He’s hit them just once on DraftKings. With a 7.2 AY/A, Ryan has regressed from last year’s 10.1 to his pre-2016 average of 7.1. This is who he is.
Philip Rivers ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): The Chargers are +7.5 road dogs against the Patriots, who have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year with 26.5 DraftKings and 23.9 FanDuel PPG. They’ve allowed every quarterback they’ve faced — except for the mediocre Ryan — to hit 300 yards passing. Rivers is tied for the position lead with six Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Russell Wilson ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): Four of his five starting linemen have PFF grades lower than 50.0, but Wilson has been on fire over his last four games, throwing for 300 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game on 101-of-151 passing. The Seahawks are -5.5 home favorites against the Texans, who are 31st and 25th in pass DVOA against non-No. 1 wide receivers.
Dak Prescott ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Dak is yet to finish with fewer than the 17.12 fantasy points he scored in Week 1, and in Weeks 2-7 he’s crushed, averaging 3.2 touchdowns per game and 25.02 fantasy PPG with a 100 percent Consistency Rating. The Cowboys are implied for 26.5 points as -2.5 road favorites against the divisional rival Redskins, against whom Dak averaged +2.47 DraftKings and +3.12 FanDuel Plus/Minus values last season.
Cam Newton ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Although Newton started the season slowly, over the last four weeks he has 25.08 DraftKings and 23.33 FanDuel PPG at 3.2 percent ownership. Com’on, people. The Panthers are +2.5 road dogs against the Buccaneers, who are dead last in pass DVOA. Newton has the position’s highest floor projection on FanDuel.
Kirk Cousins ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): In the Jay Gruden era, Cousins has averaged 302 yards and two touchdowns per game with +5.47 DraftKings and +4.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus values against the Cowboys; as an underdog, 312.5 yards, three touchdowns, and +10.12 and +7.96 Plus/Minus values. The Redskins are implied for 24.0 points as +2.5 home dogs, and they have a slate-high over/under of 50.5 points.
Deshaun Watson ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Watson might be the greatest rookie in the history of the universe, but he’s a +5.5 road dog against the Seahawks, who have held quarterbacks to bottom-four marks of 12.3 DraftKings and 11.3 FanDuel PPG. On the Week 8 Daily Fantasy Flex, Evan Silva and I disagree on Watson’s potential against Seattle. Evan thinks the Seahawks will crush him. I think his rushing ability gives him a high floor and the market share monster DeAndre Hopkins (as well as Will Fuller) gives him a high ceiling. Evan’s probably right, but Watson’s the No. 1 fantasy quarterback (counting only the games he’s started) and he’s projected for less than 5.0 percent ownership. Use our Lineup Builder to stack him with Nuk and Fuller in tournaments.
The Model Quarterbacks
There are two quarterbacks atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Carson Wentz ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
- Andy Dalton ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Here’s something scary about Wentz: He has top-six positional salaries, and that’s with the Monday Night Football discount. The Eagles lead the slate with an implied total of 30.0 points as -13.0 home favorites against the 49ers, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks with 22.6 DraftKings and 21.4 FanDuel PPG. The 49ers have perhaps the league’s worst cornerback trio in Rashard Robinson, Dontae Johnson, and K’Wuan Williams, all of whom have poor PFF grades of under 50.0. While the Eagles had PFF’s top-ranked offensive line entering the season, Wentz will now have to deal with the absence of left tackle Jason Peters (knee), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7. Still, the 49ers have allowed a league-high 169 first downs, and Wentz leads the NFL with 17 touchdowns passing. Wentz leads the position with a 72 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he has the highest ceiling projection and is the consensus top quarterback in the Pro Models.
Earlier in the week I thought Dalton might be a potential pivot. Now it looks like he’ll be chalky. Dalton is having the least efficient season of his career (6.2 AY/A), and Bill Lazor’s play-calling magic has worn off as the Bengals have faced tough opponents (5.27 AY/A in Weeks 5 & 7 against the Bills and Steelers), but the Colts are a panacea for poor quarterback play, and the Bengals are hosting them as -10.5 favorites implied for 26.0 points. Absolutely dreadful on defense, the Colts are last in the league with 31.7 PPG allowed, and opposing quarterbacks have averaged top-six marks of 22.5 DraftKings and 20.2 FanDuel PPG against them. Even worse, their two highest-rated PFF defensive backs — cornerback Rashaan Melvin (concussion) and free safety Malik Hooker (knee) — suffered injuries in Week 7: Melvin is questionable and still in the concussion protocol; Hooker is out for the season. In his few career games as a comparable favorite against bottom-10 pass defenses, Dalton has averaged 26.9 fantasy PPG. The absolute worst any quarterback has done against the Colts this year is 18.24 DraftKings and 15.24 FanDuel points. In fact, the Colts are the only team to allow each opposing quarterback to hit salary-based expectations on DraftKings, where Dalton has a position-high 75 percent Bargain Rating and six Pro Trends as the consensus top quarterback in the Pro Models.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the quarterbacks for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 8 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
