The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Although teams have significantly underperformed their implied Vegas totals to open the year, Week 6 was fantastic as several teams outperformed expectations by double-digit point totals. With seven home underdogs, Week 7 is intriguing despite the absence of several desirable wide receivers such as Tyreek Hill, Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffery, et al. For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday night breakdown and Justin Bailey’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 12-game DraftKings and 13-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Two (or Three)
You know who these guys are. Remember that the Falcons-Patriots game is available on the FanDuel (but not the DraftKings) main slate.
- Antonio Brown ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
- Julio Jones ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
- A.J. Green ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
To quote Lord Tennyson: “Half a league onward.”
He’s Only as Good as His Home Favorite Quarterback
No player since 2013 has more than Antonio’s 769 targets and 45 touchdowns receiving. He leads the league with 74 targets, 48 receptions, 700 receiving yards, 972 air yards, 256 yards after the catch, and 3.1 yards per route run (Pro Football Focus). He’s a market share monster. He’s his own Ambassador of Quan. With Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) out for the season, Brown easily has the league’s best combination of ability and opportunity. Brown has a tough matchup in theory against the Bengals defense, which is third overall and seventh against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), but Cincinnati has issues at cornerback: Adam Jones (back) is questionable to play, Dre Kirkpatrick (shoulder) missed most of last game and has been exploitable with a 124.2 passer rating allowed when in coverage (PFF), and William Jackson is just five games into his NFL career. Brown could turn those three defensive backs into cigar smoke.
Most importantly, the Steelers are -5.0 home favorites, and (like quarterback Ben Roethlisberger) Brown is at the top of his game — and the fantasy standings — when he’s favored at Heinz Field, averaging an absurd 29.30 DraftKings and 23.35 FanDuel points per game (PPG) with +10.14 and +8.11 Plus/Minus values as well as 81.0 percent Consistency Ratings since 2014. Use the Lineup Builder to stack Roethlisberger with Antonio and maybe even Martavis Bryant ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel). The Steelers have been horrible on offense this year — they have the second-worst Vegas Plus/Minus with a -5.0, and none of their games has hit the over — but given the long-term success the Steelers have had at home they warrant tournament exposure. As he did last week, Brown has the highest median projections in our Models.
The Moustachioed Assassin
For all the preseason talk about wanting to give Julio more opportunities near the goal line, new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has given Jones just one target inside the 10-yard line, and Julio’s volume has also dropped from a gargantuan 12.7 targets per game in 2015 to 7.4 this year. Six different players have touchdown receptions for Atlanta — and not one of them is Julio. At some point Julio will progress toward his 2015-16 touchdown rate of 4.22 percent or maybe even his career rate of 5.15 percent — but that progression won’t happen quickly if he’s not being targeted, especially near the end zone.
That said, Julio is seemingly in a good spot this week. The Falcons are +3.0 road dogs in a #RevengeGame Super Bowl rematch against the Patriots, who are 30th in pass DVOA and specifically 31st against No. 1 receivers. The Falcons are second on the week with an implied total of 26.75 points, and their game has an overwhelming 56.5-point over/under. The Falcons could easily find themselves in a pass-heavy shootout, which should benefit Julio, who in the Dan Quinn era has been near the top of his game as a road dog with 22.43 DraftKings and 16.93 FanDuel PPG. Some caution is warranted — the Pats have had extra time to prepare coming off a Thursday game, and they held Julio to an efficient but ineffective 4/87/0 line on four targets in February — but this will be one of the best spots Julio has all year. He leads the position with eight Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Given the porousness of the Patriots defense, which has allowed 40.6 DraftKings and 32.7 FanDuel PPG to opposing receiver units, Taylor Gabriel ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) and Mohamed Sanu ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) are also in play. Sanu (hamstring) missed most of Week 4 and all of Week 6 after resting on a Week 5 bye, but he’s expected to play. Sanu is the highest-rated FanDuel wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model.
The Human Resources Department
I’m not going to say that former offensive coordinator Ken Zampese was a great play caller, but in Green’s 11 healthy games with him he averaged 10.6 targets and never had fewer than eight. He had a Julio-esque 100.5 yards per game — and then he petitioned for Zampese’s dismissal. While Green was targeted only four times within the 10-yard line under Zampese, it’s still hard to say that Green is clearly better off now than he was to start the year. In Weeks 1-2 he faced the tough Ravens and Texans, and he got nine targets per game. In Weeks 3-5 he had an easier schedule and got 11 targets per game. It’s possible that Green’s recent uptick in fantasy production has more to do with variance and matchup and less to do with who’s calling plays.
To be clear: Bill Lazor is almost certainly better than Zampese — but let’s not go overboard on the Lazor love. He’s not an offensive genius who’s going to funnel certain 100/1 games to Green each week. When facing a good defense quarterback Andy Dalton could underwhelm again. As it happens, the Bengals have a tough matchup against the Steelers, whose defense is fourth in overall DVOA and also pass DVOA, holding opponents to an average of 17.0 PPG. Green always has the capacity to go off — and it probably helps that the Bengals are entering the game fresh off a bye — but Green’s three-week hot streak of 7.3/121/1 per game is going to regress at some point. He still has only one target inside the 10-yard line this year — and we’re projecting him to be the slate’s highest-owned receiver.
Fly Patterns
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), John Brown ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), Jaron Brown ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), and J.J. Nelson ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): The Cardinals are +3.5 dogs in the London game against the Rams, whose defense — now sixth in pass DVOA — has started to come together over the last few weeks under Wade Phillips. This isn’t a great matchup for the Cardinals receivers — but the team is still first in the league with 249 pass attempts and second with 309.3 receiving yards per game. The addition of running back Adrian Peterson and return of left tackle D.J. Humphries (knee) have seemingly solidified the offense. Fitz leads the league with 12 targets inside the red zone and is pacing for his third consecutive 100-catch season. JoBro has played 76.0 percent of the snaps over the last two weeks (scoring a touchdown in both games), and now he has an exploitable matchup against cornerback Trumaine Johnson, who has a 43.7 PFF grade. Jaron and Nelson always have the potential for big games.
Michael Thomas ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Ted Ginn ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), and Willie Snead ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): The Saints are implied for 26.25 points as -5.0 road favorites against the Packers, whose secondary is destroyed. Safety/slot cornerback Morgan Burnett (hamstring) and outside cornerbacks Davon House (quad) and Kevin King (concussion) — all of whom are starters when healthy — missed Week 5 and are questionable for Week 6. Additionally, slot corner Quinten Rollins (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6 and is on Injured Reserve. Most of the healthy defensive backs, such as cornerback Damarious Randall, free safety Kentrell Brice, and safety/dime linebacker Josh Jones, all have PFF grades below 50.0. This is a #SmashSpot.
Demaryius Thomas ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) and Bennie Fowler ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): With the absence of Emmanuel Sanders (ankle), DT has higher target equity but will also be the focal point of the Chargers defense, which is 12th in pass DVOA and will likely use shutdown corner Casey Hayward against him in shadow coverage. Fowler will get an increase in targets filling in for Sanders, but he won’t have it much better than Thomas, as the Chargers are second in pass DVOA against No. 2 receivers thanks to emerging second-year corner Trevor Williams.
Pierre Garcon ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Averaging 9.3 targets per game, Garcon is slated to run the majority of his routes against cornerback Anthony Brown, who has allowed the second-most touchdowns in the league with four. At +6.0, the 49ers are the slate’s biggest underdogs and could have a pass-heavy game script for much of the contest.
Jordy Nelson ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Davante Adams ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), and Randall Cobb ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): To paraphrase Seinfeld plagiarizing McCoy talking about Spock, “He’s not really dead if the Packers find a way to play for him.” Quarterback Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) is out for Week 7 and probably the season, but the Packers still have the best wide receiver trio in the league. The Packers are +5.0 home dogs likely to have a pass-leaning game script against the Saints, who (even with their improved defense) have allowed top-eight fantasy marks of 38.7 DraftKings and 31.3 FanDuel PPG to opposing receiver units. Since breaking out in 2011, Nelson has averaged a 5.2/79.3/0.81 receiving line on 7.9 targets per game with Rodgers; in his eight games without Rodgers, 5.1/74.9/0.5 on 7.9 targets. He has less touchdown equity without Rodgers, but historically Jordy has been a far more quarterback-agnostic receiver than many people might realize. Adams leads the league with 12 targets in the red zone, and Cobb has a buffet of a matchup against Kenny Vaccaro, who has transitioned (read: been demoted) to slot corner from strong safety. With some positive reverse line movement on their side, the Packers look like a sharp play.
Ricardo Louis ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Louis has 30 targets over his last four games, and he’ll run the supermajority of his routes against cornerbacks Adoree’ Jackson and LeShaun Sims, both of whom have poor PFF grades lower than 55.0.
Stefon Diggs ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) and Adam Thielen ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Diggs (groin) missed last week and is uncertain for this week. Monitor his situation. The Vikings are -5.5 home favorites against the Ravens, who offer two very exploitable matchups to Diggs and Thielen in the form of left cornerback Brandon Carr (60.1 PFF) and slot corner Lardarius Webb (41.7 PFF). With his volume (53 targets), catch rate (71.7 percent), and average depth of target (11.2 yards), Thielen — amazingly — has the position’s highest ceiling projections in our Models.
Mike Evans ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) and DeSean Jackson ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Evans has 9.6 targets per game, and D-Jax leads all starting receivers with an average depth of target of 20.1 yards, but quarterback Jameis Winston (shoulder) is uncertain to play, and the Bucs are on the road against the Bills, whose defense is third in pass DVOA. With cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and E.J. Gaines and safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, the Bills have four starting defensive backs with PFF grades of at least 80.0.
Brandin Cooks ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel), Chris Hogan ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), and Danny Amendola ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Available in the FanDuel (but not the DraftKings) main slate, the Pats are implied for a slate-high 29.25 points as -3.5 home favorites against the Falcons, whose defense is 27th in DVOA. Cooks is fifth in the NFL with 640 air yards, Hogan is tied for third with five touchdowns receiving, and Amendola leads the league with 2.37 yards per route run out of the slot (PFF) and has averaged 7.4 targets per game with the Patriots in 12 contests without Julian Edelman. Hogan and Amendola are among the most undervalued receivers in the league.
Dez Bryant ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Cole Beasley ($5,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel), and Terrance Williams ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): The Cowboys are implied for 26.25 points as -6.0 road favorites against the 49ers, who have perhaps the league’s worst cornerback trio in Rashard Robinson, Dontae Johnson, and K’Wuan Williams, all of whom have poor PFF grades of under 50.0. Beasley leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel and has PFF’s most receiver-friendly matchup against Williams. Dez has the position’s highest floor projections in our Models. If there were ever a spot for Williams to have a foreseeable big game, it would be this one.
T.Y. Hilton ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Yep, I’m going there. Hilton is the “I’ve got stones” pivot receiver for the slate. The Colts are +3.0 home dogs against the Jaguars, who have the league’s best cornerback duo in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, who have allowed just 29 receptions and no touchdowns on 73 targets (PFF). They are both legitimately top-five cover men. Still, Hilton intrigues. He played primarily in the slot last year, and just last week he ran 47.6 percent of his routes from the slot. The Colts could use Hilton there even more this week, since Ramsey and Bouye are almost exclusively outside cornerbacks and have covered only 16 and 17 routes from the slot this year. Jaguars slot corner Aaron Colvin has allowed the league’s fourth-worst reception rate this year with one completion per seven coverage snaps. Hilton is fourth in the league with 80.8 yards per game and pacing for his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. Playing at home, where he can leverage his speed in the climate-controlled FieldTurf-ed Lucas Oil Stadium, Hilton has upside potential at minimal ownership if he can avoid the Ramsey-Bouye tag team.
The Model Wide Receivers
There are currently three wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Rishard Matthews ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
- Tyrell Williams ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
- Robert Woods ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
Matthews started 2016 as a rotational receiver, but from Week 8 to now he’s never played less than 70.0 percent of the snaps in any game. Rookie Corey Davis (hamstring) hasn’t played since Week 2 and is uncertain for this week, so Matthews should see his normal usage. Although Matthews has underwhelmed with only one score on the year, he leads the Titans with 23 and 30 percent shares of the targets and air yards. At some point his volume will turn into touchdowns. The Titans are -5.5 road favorites against the Browns, who are dead last in pass DVOA in general and against No. 1 receivers in particular. Matthews — as well as Eric Decker ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) and Taywan Taylor ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) — are in play as stacking options with quarterback Marcus Mariota. Matthews is the highest-rated FanDuel receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models. We call that “The Full Donkey.”
The Chargers have a tough matchup at ‘home’ against the Broncos — Keenan Allen ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) will be less enticing than he normally is against slot cornerback Chris Harris Jr. — but Williams lines up all over the formation and will likely run half of his outside routes against Bradley Roby, who this year has been targeted at a top-10 rate of one target for every 5.4 coverage snaps (PFF). Williams is a speculative play, as Travis Benjamin ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) and Mike Williams ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) will likely steal a few targets, but against a Broncos defense that is somehow just 18th in pass DVOA the Gazelle — with a position-high 99 percent Bargain Rating — has big-play potential as the highest-rated DraftKings receiver in the CSURAM88 Model.
As intriguing as he can be, Woods is intriguing. He leads all Rams wide receivers with 37 targets, 322 receiving yards, and 413 air yards, and the Rams still lead the league with 29.8 PPG. They’re -3.5 favorites at Twickenham Stadium, and favorites have historically crushed in the London game. The Cardinals have a funnel defense that’s fourth against the rush and 24th against the pass in DVOA, and unlike Sammy Watkins ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) Woods won’t have to face the shadow coverage of shutdown cornerback Patrick Peterson. Instead, he’ll get to run many of his routes against Justin Bethel, who has allowed a league-high six touchdowns in his coverage. Slot man Cooper Kupp ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) is also an option, as most of his routes will be against Tyrann Mathieu. While Honey Badger is likable, he’s been downright awful this year with a 47.5 PFF grade. If the Rams attack the Cardinals with their wide receivers, Woods and Kupp will likely be the beneficiaries. Woods is the highest-rated DraftKings receiver in the Bales, Levitan, and SportsGeek Models.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 7 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends (Thu./Fri.)
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
