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Although teams have significantly underperformed their implied Vegas totals to open the year, Week 6 was fantastic as several teams outperformed expectations by double-digit point totals. With seven home underdogs, Week 7 is intriguing despite the absence of Kareem Hunt and a few other desirable running backs. For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday night breakdown and Justin Bailey’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 12-game DraftKings and 13-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Four
Thanks to a temporary restraining order issued by the Southern District of New York, this week’s power triumvirate is now a quartet of Quan. Also, I’m pretty sure it’s spelled “Quan,” not “Kwon.”
- Le’Veon Bell ($9,100 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel)
- Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
- Leonard Fournette ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
- Todd Gurley ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Bang a gong.
“It’s Le’Ve-OH-sa, not Le’Veo-SAH”
Since Bell became his All-Pro self in 2014, he’s been the league’s best back, averaging 24.32 DraftKings and 20.44 FanDuel points per game (PPG) with +5.03 and +4.74 Plus/Minus values. He’s had some subpar performances throughout the season. but over the last four games he has 568 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage for 27.45 DraftKings and 23.08 FanDuel PPG with +4.45 and +6.58 Plus/Minus values. In the last month, he has 87.4 percent of the Steelers’ non-quarterback carries, a wide receiver-like 19.7 percent of their targets, and 92.6 percent of offensive snaps played. He’s a market share behemoth. Even though Pittsburgh’s offense as a whole is underperforming with its -5.00 Vegas Plus/Minus, Bell still leads the league with 164 touches overall and 13 carries inside the 10-yard line.
That volume will come in handy this week, because Bell doesn’t have a good matchup: The Bengals defense is third overall in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and seventh in rush DVOA. Still, the Steelers are -5.0 home favorites, and Bell could benefit from a run-skewed game script. In their four wins this year, the Steelers have given Bell 26 carries per game; in their two losses, 15. Bell has the highest median projections in our Models and will be popular, especially for #TeamJamEmIn truthers. On the Week 7 Daily Fantasy Flex, Bell was one of the first running backs we talked about as a chalk lock.
The Wasteland
The other half of #TeamJamEmIn, Zeke is once again going to play after a lot of legal sound and fury signifying nothing. It’s possible that this could be the last game before Zeke’s six-game suspension (re)commences. Not that he needs any extra motivation, but he has it. We’re projecting Zeke to be chalky — and for good reason. Zeke’s been Le’Veon-esque this season: He’s played an impressive 87.2 percent of the offensive snaps, and after a slow-ish start (14.10 DraftKings and 10.35 FanDuel PPG in Weeks 1-2) he put together three solid games before the Cowboys’ Week 6 bye, turning 72 carries and eight receptions into 365 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage. His efficiency has taken a major hit (5.1 yards per carry in 2016; 3.7 in 2017), but he’s getting even more opportunities per game than he got last year: 25.2 vs. 24.1.
In addition to having high volume and desirable recent form, Zeke is in a good spot. The Cowboys have a top-four implied total of 26.25 points as -6.0 road favorites against the 49ers, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing backfields with 30.9 DraftKings and 26.2 FanDuel PPG. Zeke has at least 25 touches in four of five games and is locked in as the every-down back on account of his increased role in the passing game (2.6 targets per game last year; 4.2 this year). He can be stacked with quarterback Dak Prescott via our Lineup Builder to create what’s likely to be a contrarian pairing with upside, as they have a high correlation coefficient. Zeke leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the consensus highest-rated running back in the Pro Models. He’s also the top DraftKings back in the SportsGeek Model. He’s in a #SmashSpot.
Zeke the Second
Hunt has been impressively efficient and productive as a rookie, but Fournette has been almost as good. He’s to 2017 what Zeke was to 2016. Overdrafted with the No. 4 pick to serve as the lead back on a defense-driven ball-control team, Fournette has been all that the Jaguars and fantasy players could’ve hoped he’d be. Jacksonville leads the league with a 52.48 percent run rate and a +9.67 Spread Differential, and Fournette is first in the league with seven touchdowns, second with 596 rushing yards, and third with 732 scrimmage yards. On top of that, he’s been an effective receiver out of the backfield, converting 75.0 percent of his 20 targets into receptions. Scoring in each game, Fournette has a ludicrous 50 percent of Jacksonville’s offensive touchdowns.
Fournette (ankle) exited Week 6 early and seems to be dealing with the same injury issues that hampered him in college, so his situation should be monitored throughout the week, but Fournette is expected to play in Week 7. The Jags are -3.0 road favorites against the Colts, who are 27th in run DVOA and just gave up a 31/171/2 rushing line to the Titans running backs. It seems risky to invest in anyone who’s a part of an offense quarterbacked by Blake Bortles, but we’re projecting Fournette to have reduced ownership relative to his production due to his injury. Through six games last year, Zeke had 137 carries and 11 receptions for 801 yards and five touchdowns. Through six games, Fournette has 130 carries and 15 receptions for 732 yards and seven touchdowns. Fournette is Zeke II.
If Fournette is unable to play, his backup Chris Ivory ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) will be in consideration given his price, enhanced volume, and matchup.
The Best Running Back in Los Angeles
Gurley is second in the league with 146 touches and 766 scrimmage yards and first with seven touchdowns. Through six games last year he had 134 touches, 479 yards, and three touchdowns. The big difference isn’t in volume; it’s in efficiency. Thanks to new head coach Sean McVay, improved quarterback play, and an overhauled offensive line — as well as some understandable progression (5.07 yards per opportunity in 2015; 3.61 last year; 5.01 this year) — Gurley has rediscovered the Pro-Bowl form he had as a rookie. Playing on 81.9 percent of the snaps, Gurley leads the Rams with 23 receptions and, like Fournette, has an unreal 50 percent of his team’s offensive touchdowns.
The Rams are -3.5 favorites at Twickenham Stadium, and favorites have historically crushed in the London game. The Cardinals have been a tough team to run on this year — they’re fourth in rush DVOA — but they’re 20th in pass DVOA against running backs, and Gurley has at least 18 opportunities in each game. Even if he’s not efficient against the Cards, Gurley still has 100-yard, multi-touchdown upside. Gurley has the position’s highest ceiling projections in our Models.
Up the Gut
Jerick McKinnon ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): The Week 6 chalk, McKinnon has been priced up for Week 7 but could still have double-digit ownership. While McKinnon has established himself as the lead back in Minnesota, turning 32 carries, 12 targets, and two goal-line opportunities into 245 yards, 11 receptions, and two touchdowns over the last two weeks, he’s still played only 61.9 percent of the offensive snaps in that time, and Latavius Murray ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) has 27 carries, three targets, and one goal-line opportunity in that same span. McKinnon’s in a good spot as a -5.5 home favorite against a Ravens team allowing top-10 fantasy marks of 26.4 DraftKings and 23.3 FanDuel PPG to opposing backfields — but McKinnon’s not yet a bona fide workhorse.
Jay Ajayi ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): The Dolphins are -3.0 home favorites against the Jets, who are allowing top-eight fantasy marks of 27.8 DraftKings and 24.3 FanDuel PPG to opposing backfields. Ajayi is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, and his offense has a league-worst -9.05 Vegas Plus/Minus. That said, he’s averaging 22.8 opportunities per game, and over his last 16 regular season contests he has 1.676 yards and six touchdowns on 331 carries and 40 targets.
Doug Martin ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Martin has played well since returning from suspension, turning 27 carries and five targets into 146 yards, two touchdowns, a two-point conversion, and 15.3 DraftKings and 14.8 FanDuel PPG. Martin has a tough matchup on the road against a Bills defense that is first with a +7.8 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus and second overall in DVOA, but with quarterback Jameis Winston (shoulder) dealing with an injury the Buccaneers might run the ball more than they otherwise would.
Melvin Gordon ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Gordon is the pivot runner for this slate. Cheaper than the top-tier backs and likely to have lower ownership because of his matchup against the Broncos, who are first in rush DVOA, Gordon has turned 18.6 carries and 5.1 targets into 105.0 yards, 3.6 receptions, and one touchdown per game since the beginning of last season, including his injury-shortened, eight-snap Week 14 outing last year. In his three workhorse games against the Broncos, Gordon has averaged a robust 22.7 carries and five targets per game. The Chargers are -1.5 home favorites, so MG3 could benefit from a run-heavy game script. For the second week in a row, Gordon has the position’s highest floor projections in our Models.
Carlos Hyde ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Hyde leads the league with 13 and 10 carries inside the 10- and five-yard lines, and aside from the Week 5 game in which he was benched Hyde has averaged 15.6 carries and 5.6 targets per game. Last week he had 13 carries and six targets. He’s still the lead back for the 49ers, who are 0-6 but have lost their last five games by a combined 13 points. The 49ers are the slate’s biggest dogs at +6.0, but they’re at home and facing the Cowboys, who are dead last in rush DVOA.
Orleans Darkwa ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Darkwa has started each of the last two games, going for 202 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries and five targets in those contests. On the plus side, the Giants are at home against the Seahawks, whose run-flowing funnel defense is fifth against the pass but 26th against the rush in DVOA. On the negative side, the Seahawks still have a good defense, the Giants are +5.5 dogs, and Darkwa has played only 38.2 percent of the snaps as the starter.
Adrian Peterson ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) and Andre Ellington ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Purple Jesus last week resurrected his career with a 26/134/2 rushing performance in his Cardinals debut. Ellington (quadriceps) played just 13 snaps in Week 6 and could get even fewer snaps this week due to his injury. The Cardinals are +3.5 dogs, which isn’t great for AD since he isn’t a good receiver, but Peterson could play more than the 73.8 percent of snaps he took last week, and the Rams have allowed the most points this season to opposing backfields with 32.6 DraftKings and 29.1 FanDuel PPG. NARRATIVE ALERT: Peterson’s playing in the London game — the same game in which just three weeks ago he played only six snaps in what became his final contest as a Saint. He’s the first NFL player ever to get two London games in the same season. It would be epic for him to smash in this second-chance spot.
DeMarco Murray ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) and Derrick Henry ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Since Murray started dealing with hamstring tightness in Week 2, he’s had 56 carries — and so has Henry. Murray’s had 269 yards and two touchdowns rushing; Henry, 293 and two. Murray’s the superior receiver, but the Titans might not throw much as -5.5 road favorites. The Browns are third in rush DVOA, so it’s not a great matchup, but Henry could get a lot of second-half carries.
Mike Gillislee ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel), Dion Lewis ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), and James White ($5,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): The Patriots are -3.5 home favorites implied for a slate-high 29.25 points in a Super Bowl rematch against the Falcons. This game has the slate’s highest over/under at 55.0 points. Get tournament exposure to all three running backs. Set your money on fire.
Devonta Freeman ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) and Tevin Coleman ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): The Patriots have allowed the third-most fantasy points this season to opposing backfields with 30.1 DraftKings and 25.7 FanDuel PPG. [Insert here Jim-Nadia GIF.]
LeSean McCoy ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): McCoy’s rushing efficiency is down (3.2 yards per carry; 5.4 last year) as is his scoring (zero touchdowns; 14 in 15 games last year), but he is getting more per-game opportunities (23.8; 19.4 last year) and should progress toward his 3.49 percent 2015-16 touchdown rate: He’s averaging one carry inside the 10-yard line per game. The Bills are second in the league with a 50.6 percent rushing rate, and McCoy leads the team with 32 targets and 27 receptions. At some point Shady will run to daylight.
The Model Running Backs
Besides Zeke, there are two other running backs atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Mark Ingram ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
- Jonathan Stewart ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
For the second week in a row, Ingram is the highest-rated running back in the Levitan Model, where he leads the position with eight Pro Trends. Here’s what I wrote last week when highlighting Ingram:
There seems to be the perception that Ingram in 2014-16 just randomly fell into 199 carries and 51.3 targets per season for 1,215 yards and 8.3 touchdowns from scrimmage. Coming off a bye, Ingram enters Week 6 pacing for 1,180 scrimmage yards on 256 combined carries and targets — and the team just traded away Peterson. He’s scored no touchdowns this season, but Ingram will likely see progression to his 2014-16 touchdown rate of 3.3 percent.
Twenty-five carries, five receptions, 150 yards, and two touchdowns later, Ingram is once again strongly in play for cash games, as the Saints are -5.5 road favorites against the wounded Packers. His teammate Alvin Kamara ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) is intriguing. A pass-catching specialist with rushing ability, Kamara trails only wide receiver Michael Thomas in targets (32) and receptions (24) for the Saints, and the Packers are 27th in pass DVOA against running backs. Kamara played on a season-high 42.3 percent of the offensive snaps last week in his first game without Peterson, and over his last three games he’s averaged 17.17 DraftKings and 14.33 FanDuel PPG with +8.41 and +6.67 Plus/Minus values. The Saints are second in the slate with an implied total of 26.5 points: Even though Kamara is behind Ingram, he’s an upside play.
There’s not a lot to be excited about with Stewart — he has 2.9 yards per carry and just one touchdown this year — but he is averaging 16 opportunities per game, and as long as he continues to get carries his current touchdown rate of 1.04 percent seems likely to progress toward his 2014-16 mark of 2.82 percent. With Christian McCaffrey ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) failing to surpass 4.0 yards per carry in any game and serving more as a receiver than runner — he leads all backs with 50 targets and 37 receptions — Stew seems likely to continue to serve as the lead back. The Panthers are -3.0 road favorites against the Bears, and Stewart has averaged 18 opportunities per game in Carolina’s four wins. Stewart (ankle) was limited in Wednesday’s practice but is expected to play this week. Priced down, Stew is a cheap source of touches with some accrued touchdown equity waiting to be cashed in. He’s the highest-rated DraftKings back in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models. We call that the “Double Donk.”
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 7 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends (Thu./Fri.)
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
