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Quarterbacks
Tom Brady: $8,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Tom Brady and the Patriots boast the slate’s highest implied team total at 30 points. Since 2014, the Patriots have been implied for at least 28 points in 29 of Brady’s games. In those games, Brady has averaged 23.29 DraftKings points with a +2.55 Plus/Minus and a 55.2 percent Consistency Rating. Brady has been cruising through opponents this season with a 5.6 percent touchdown rate and 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), and the Patriots have scored on 46.4 percent of their drives (the second-highest mark in the league). It’s a great matchup for Brady as the Falcons rank 22nd in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and are allowing the fifth-highest scoring rate to opponents.
Carson Wentz: $6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
If the Eagles were on the main slate, they would be tied with the Falcons for the second-highest implied team total at 26.5 points. Carson Wentz has shown improvement in his second year as the Eagles’ signal caller, ranking in the top 10 in passing yards per game, touchdown rate, and AY/A. Wentz has the benefit of playing at home against a Washington defense that will likely be without shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. He ranks fifth in the league with 29 pass attempts of 20-plus yards downfield (Pro Football Focus), turning them into 416 yards, four touchdowns, and just one interception. In Wentz’s two starts against Washington, he has averaged a 62.8 percent completion rate, 310.5 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and one interception.
Running Backs
Devonta Freeman: $7,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Devonta Freeman saw just nine carries last week as game script and Miami’s time of possession (34:24) didn’t do the Falcons offense any favors. This game should be much more favorable since the Patriots have the second-fastest pace in neutral situations and their defense ranks 23rd in rush DVOA (Football Outsiders). Freeman dominates red zone usage for the Falcons, sporting 65 percent of their market share of carries from inside the 20, out-touching Tevin Coleman eight to one inside the five-yard line. If game script were to get away from the Falcons, Freeman would likely still be used in the passing game (212 career targets). The Patriots rank 28th in pass DVOA against running backs, allowing 9.3 targets, 7.2 receptions, and a league-high 77.0 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields.
James White: $5,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
James White leads the Patriots backfield with 49 percent of the snaps and trails only Mike Gillislee with 9.3 touches per game. He saw 10 carries in Week 1 against the Chiefs but has seen just 13 total carries since then. However, he is averaging 7.0 targets per game, leading the Patriots in both targets (42) and receptions (33). Running backs against the Falcons are being targeted at a 25.1 percent clip, averaging 9.4 targets and 6.8 receptions per game. White makes more sense on a full point-per-reception site like DraftKings, but he’s cheap enough on FanDuel to be rosterable as a punt option for the two-game slate.
Wide Receivers
Alshon Jeffery: $6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Things may be trending upward for Alshon Jeffery after matchups against Patrick Peterson, Casey Hayward, and Janoris Jenkins. In a softer matchup against Carolina in Week 6, Jeffery saw 10 targets. Even against a murderers’ row of defensive backs, Jeffery is second on the team with eight targets per game, owning 23 percent of the target share and 35 percent of the Eagles’ air yards. Jeffery makes for an exceptional correlation play with Wentz, especially on FanDuel, where Jeffery is sporting an 89 percent Bargain Rating and +1.24 Projected Plus/Minus.
Danny Amendola: $5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
If you’re not paying up for Brandin Cooks or Chris Hogan, consider Danny Amendola, who has been a serviceable floor play this season, averaging 6.4 targets per game for a target rate (target/snap) of 17.4 percent, the second-highest target rate on the Pats. Amendola has run 87.1 percent of his routes from the slot (PFF) and will have one of the softer matchups against slot corner Brian Poole, who has been targeted 28 times this season, allowing 21 receptions for 203 yards.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski: $7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Rob Gronkowski leads the Patriots with eight targets per game and squares off against a Falcons defense allowing 8.8 targets per game to tight ends. After his Week 1 disappointment, Gronk has at least 80 yards or a touchdown in every game this season. To go along with his team-high 23 percent target share (adjusted for missed games), Gronk is tied with Hogan with 10 red zone targets and 35.7 percent of the Patriots’ targets inside the 10-yard line. It’ll be interesting to see how his FanDuel main slate ownership shakes out: People generally don’t like to pay up for tight ends, but he owns a 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel and leads the position in ceiling projections.
Zach Ertz: $6,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
There are few tight ends who boast the volume that Zach Ertz does. Ertz ranks eighth in the league in targets, eighth in receptions, and ninth in receiving yards and is tied for third in touchdowns. The Redskins rank 27th in pass DVOA against tight ends, allowing 8.6 targets and a league-high 84 receiving yards per game. Over the last 12 months, the Redskins have allowed tight ends to score four points above salary-based expectations on FanDuel. On DraftKings, depending on roster construction, it would be viable to start Ertz and Gronk together, as they each lead their teams in targets per game and garner tremendous red zone usage.
Good luck this week and be sure to research with our suite of Tools.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
