The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Whereas Weeks 1-2 had league-wide underperformance (-2.58 and -2.17 Vegas Plus/Minus values) and Week 3 had overperformance (+2.81), Week 4 was average in terms of Vegas production: The league went 15-17 on team totals and 9-7 on game totals. It looks like the betting markets are starting to get a sense of the season. As for Week 5, there are a few items to note:
- FantasyLabs has been acquired by The Chernin Group. That has nothing to do with football, but that’s the biggest news in the fantasy industry right now. (I say that with self-awareness, but I’m not joking.) Labs is now a part of The Action Network, which will soon release regular sports betting and fantasy newsletters. Sign up for the newsletters, which will be curated by Chad Millman, our Head of Media. Big news.
- The bye weeks have started: No Jordan Reed (Redskins), Coby Fleener (Saints), Austin Hooper (Falcons), and [Insert Random Name Here] (Broncos).
- DraftKings has once again excluded the Sunday Night Football game from the main slate, so if you want to play Travis Kelce (Chiefs) or Ryan Griffin (Texans) do so on FanDuel.
For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday night breakdown and Justin Bailey’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 11-game DraftKings and 12-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Two
With no Gronk in the main slate and Kelce available only on FanDuel, we have a weird top tier of 1.5 players:
- Travis Kelce ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
- Zach Ertz ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Runnin’ down a dream . . .
Even Zeus Has a Birthday
I’m writing this sentence on Oct. 5, the day Kelce turns 28 years old. Thank the fantasy gawds it’s a Thursday and not the day before a football game. Kelce is a close second on the Chiefs with a 22.2 percent target share, and he’s essentially playing as the team’s 1B receiver to Tyreek Hill‘s 1A. Kelce has run 142 routes this season. Here’s the snap distribution (Pro Football Focus):
- Slot: 65
- Tight end: 39
- Wide receiver: 37
- Back: 1
He doesn’t always line up at receiver, but whenever he’s running routes he’s doing it not as a traditional tight end the supermajority of the time. Big picture: The Chiefs line him up wherever they want or need to in order to get him the ball. An All-Pro top-two fantasy tight end last year with 15.06 DraftKings and 11.28 FanDuel points per game (PPG), Kelce went all Zeus Mode last week with a 7/111/1 performance on eight targets. Kelce’s not in a great spot this week as a -1.0 road favorite against the Texans, who are second against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Nevertheless, he’s still Kelce — which means that he has position-high ceiling and floor projections in our Models.
“Everybody Ertz Sometimes”
It’s easy to like Ertz. Over his last 13 outings, he’s turned 9.4 targets per game into a 6.9/76.3/0.38 stat line. In his six games since last year without former teammate Jordan Matthews, Ertz has functioned as the team’s slot man, turning 11.2 targets per game into an 8/90.7/0.67 line. He leads the Eagles with a 25.0 percent target share and is fifth in the league with 326 yards receiving. Like Kelce, he’s not in a great spot. The Eagles are -6.5 home favorites against the Cardinals, who held opposing tight ends to the fewest fantasy points last year with 6.3 DraftKings and 4.8 FanDuel PPG; this year, they’re allowing the fourth-fewest points with 7.2 and 5.4 PPG.
That said, how do you downgrade a tight end who trails only DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown with his 26 receptions? As was the case last week, Ertz leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models. He’s also first among tight ends with six DraftKings and nine FanDuel Pro Trends, and he has position-high median projections.
The Dumpoff Pass
Jimmy Graham ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): In the aggregate Graham’s seasonal numbers don’t look great — a 15/142/0 line on 27 targets — but at least he’s getting volume: He’s second on the Seahawks with an 18.6 percent target share. Plus, his performance has improved over the the last two weeks: 11/133/0 on 17 targets. The Seahawks are on the road in a pick’em against the Rams, who are 26th in pass DVOA against tight ends.
Charles Clay ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Clay is first on the Bills with a 25.5 percent target share, and now wide receiver Jordan Matthews (thumb) is expected to miss at least a month. He’s hit expectations in three of four games this year, and in those games he’s smashed with a 16.80 DraftKings and 13.30 FanDuel PPG and +9.03 and +7.53 Plus/Minus values. The Bills are implied for only 18.0 points as +3.5 road favorites, and they’ve had some significant negative reverse line movement because of sharp money on the Bengals, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year with 6.4 DraftKings and 5.2 FanDuel PPG — but it’s hard to punish a tight end who leads his team in receiving and is pacing for a 16-game season of 908 yards and eight touchdowns on 100 targets.
Martellus Bennett ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Bennett is averaging seven targets per game, and last week he had three targets inside the 10-yard line. The Packers are +2.0 road dogs against the Cowboys in a game that could shoot out. With a pass-leaning game script and injuries to Davante Adams (concussion) and Ty Montgomery (ribs), the Packers could rely more on Bennett for production against the Cowboys, who are 30th in pass DVOA against the position and could be without linebacker Sean Lee. We’re projecting Bennett to be one of the slate’s chalkiest tight ends.
Evan Engram ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): The rookie has hit salary-based expectations in each game, turning 30 targets into a 19/200/1 stat line and ranking third on the Giants with an 18.1 percent target share. Through four games he has run 52 of his 154 routes from either in the slot or split out wide. He’s basically a big wide receiver — and he’s facing the Chargers, who are 30th in pass DVOA against tight ends. He’ll be popular.
Tyler Kroft ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): In place of the injured Tyler Eifert (back), Kroft has played on 90.4 percent of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps over the last two weeks, turning 11 targets into a 9/96/2 line. Granted, most of that production came against the hapless Browns, but Kroft is a former third-rounder who’s exhibited some talent. As was the case last week, he leads the position with a 95 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): As mentioned on the Week 5 NFL Daily Fantasy Flex, ASJ is this week’s Kroft — except he’s bigger, faster, better, and on a team with worse wide receivers. The Jets are on the road in a pick’em against the Browns, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this year with 20.1 DraftKings and 16.1 FanDuel PPG. That they’ve allowed 27 touchdowns to tight ends over their last 36 games is almost unfathomable.
Jared Cook ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Cook has been #notbad with the Raiders. He’s second on the team with a 20.0 percent target share, and he (sadly) leads the team with 16 receptions and 170 yards. The spot doesn’t look great for Cook, as the Raiders are without quarterback Derek Carr (back) and facing the Ravens — but Cook has some hidden upside: For as good as the Ravens are on defense, they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year with 15.8 DraftKings and 13.8 FanDuel PPG. The Ravens are 32nd in pass DVOA against the position — and we’re projecting Cook for less than 5.0 percent ownership. Shhh!!!
Hunter Henry ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) and Antonio Gates ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Many people will disagree with me, but Gates is the pivot tight end for this slate. He’s not as good as Henry, but Gates is still getting more usage. Gates has 17 targets, three targets inside the 10-yard line, and 59.5 percent of offensive snaps played this season; Henry, 10 targets, one target inside the 10, and 53.4 percent of snaps played. Gates is still the No. 1 tight end for the Chargers, who are +3.0 road underdogs to the Giants. Although the Giants have a good pass defense, they have been exploited this year by tight ends, allowing league-high marks of 22.2 DraftKings and 18.4 FanDuel PPG to the position. Yes, the all-time leader in tight end touchdowns is facing the team that has given up a league-high five touchdowns in four games to the position — and he’ll have almost no ownership. You’re welcome.
The Model Tight Ends
Besides Ertz, there are currently three tight ends atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Delanie Walker ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
- Jason Witten ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Eric Ebron ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Walker hasn’t been as cheap as $6,000 on FanDuel since 2015. It’s not good for him that quarterback Marcus Mariota (hamstring) seems unlikely to play this weekend and that he’s yet to be targeted in the red zone this year, but Walker’s at least getting volume with 6.5 targets per game and the Dolphins are 21st in pass DVOA against tight ends. Walker is tied for the position lead with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Bales Model.
Witten has disappointed over the last two weeks with a 2/12/0 receiving line on six targets — and he probably won’t do much better against the Packers, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year with 5.7 DraftKings and 4.2 FanDuel PPG — but the Cowboys are implied for a slate-high 27.25 points in a game with a slate-high 52.0-point over/under. The #DadRunner is second on the team with a 20.0 percent target share, and he has five targets inside the red zone. That volume could turn into production. Witten is the highest-rated tight end in the CSURAM88 Model.
The consensus top DraftKings tight end in our Models, Ebron has been priced down for most of the season. Although he is averaging 4.75 targets per game, he’s hit his salary-based expectations just once this year — a 5/42/1 performance in Week 2 — but otherwise he’s disappointed with a combined 6/45/0 line in three weeks. He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Panthers, who have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year with 7.4 DraftKings and 5.6 FanDuel PPG, but his athleticism gives him some upside as a low-owned GPP-only play.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the tight ends for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 5 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receiver
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
