The Running Back Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Whereas Weeks 1-2 had league-wide underperformance (-2.58 and -2.17 Vegas Plus/Minus values) and Week 3 had overperformance (+2.81), Week 4 was average in terms of Vegas production: The league went 15-17 on team totals and 9-7 on game totals. It looks like the betting markets are starting to get a sense of the season. As for Week 5, there are a few items to note:
- FantasyLabs has been acquired by The Chernin Group. That has nothing to do with football, but that’s the biggest news in the fantasy industry right now. (I say that with self-awareness, but I’m not joking.) Labs is now a part of The Action Network, which will soon release regular sports betting and fantasy newsletters. Sign up for the newsletters, which will be curated by Chad Millman, our Head of Media. Big news.
- The bye weeks have started: No Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (Falcons); C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles (Broncos); Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara (Saints); and Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson (Redskins).
- DraftKings has once again excluded the Sunday Night Football game from the main slate, so if you want to play Kareem Hunt (Chiefs) or Lamar Miller (Texans) do so on FanDuel.
For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday night breakdown and Justin Bailey’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 11-game DraftKings and 12-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Three
At the top of the running back salary scale we have a clear tier of two (or three) players.
- Le’Veon Bell ($9,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
- Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)
- Kareem Hunt ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Bang a gong.
“It’s Le’Ve-OH-sa, not Le’Veo-SAH”
Since Bell became his All-Pro self in 2014, he’s been the league’s best back (out of all the runners to play more than four NFL games), averaging 24.27 DraftKings and 20.44 FanDuel points per game (PPG) with +5.24 and +4.82 Plus/Minus values. Although he started the season slowly (putting up -14.45 DraftKings and -8.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus values in Weeks 1-2), he’s been a beast over the last two weeks, turning 50 rushes and 13 targets into 284 yards, 10 receptions, and three touchdowns. Bell has played over 90 percent of the snaps in each of his last three games, and he leads the league with 87 rush attempts and 10 carries inside the 10-yard line. What might be most impressive is that he’s producing in an underperforming offense: The Steelers are yet to be in a game this year that hit the over, and they have a -4.00 Vegas Plus/Minus.
Le’Veon is in an intriguing spot this week. The Steelers are -8.5 home favorites implied for a healthy 26.0 points against the Jaguars, whose defense has impressed this season, holding opponents to just 4.9 yards per play. Still, that mark is unrepresentative of how the Jags have defended the run. To date they are allowing a league-high 5.7 yards per carry and are the definition of a funnel defense, ranking first against the pass but dead last against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). For at least this week an amended #JamEmIn strategy is viable. Bell has the highest median and ceiling projections in our Models. He probably won’t be the most popular running back this week, but Bell will be chalky.
The Wasteland
It’s possible that this could be the last game before Zeke’s six-game suspension kicks in, given that his appellate hearing was on Oct. 2 and the league expects a decision soon. Not that he needs any extra motivation, but he has it. As mentioned on the Week 5 NFL Daily Fantasy Flex, we’re expecting Zeke to be chalky — and for good reason. Zeke’s been Le’Veon-esque this season: He’s played an impressive 87.5 percent of the offensive snaps, and after a slow-ish start (15.53 DraftKings and 12.53 FanDuel PPG in Weeks 1-3) he broke out last week for 139 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries and four receptions. His efficiency has taken a major hit (5.1 yards per carry in 2016; 3.6 in 2017), but he’s still getting workhorse volume with 23.8 opportunities per game compared to 24.1 last year.
In addition to having high volume and desirable recent form, Zeke is in a good spot. The Cowboys are -2.0 home favorites against the Packers, and they have the highest implied total on the slate at 27.25 points. Additionally, the Packers-Cowboys game leads the slate with a 52.5-point over/under. Throughout his short career, Zeke has been studly in all situations, but he’s been especially strong at home, hitting his salary-based expectations in 80 percent of games at AT&T Stadium and averaging 23.47 DraftKings and 20.82 FanDuel PPG. In three of four games this year, Zeke has had at least 20 carries. He leads the position with seven DraftKings and 12 FanDuel Pro Trends and has the highest floor projections. He’s the chalk du jour.
Kareem the Dream
Available on the FanDuel (but not DraftKings) main slate, Kareem is so orgasmically smooth his name should be “Cream.” (That sentence is the textbook definition of “testing boundaries.”) Last year Kareem was just another big-bodied overproductive running back with pass-catching skills and the word “Toledo” on his jersey — David Fluellen’s metaphorical heir. One Spencer Ware knee injury and four regular season games later, Hunt leads the league with 659 yards from scrimmage. The last rookie runner to hit even 500 scrimmage yards in his first month was Adrian Peterson a decade ago with 549. Hunt’s average of 7.4 yards per carry is unsustainable, as is his 100 percent catch rate on 13 targets — but I wrote basically the same sentence two weeks ago, and almost nothing has changed. With 30.73 DraftKings and 26.60 FanDuel PPG, Hunt has replaced the injured David Johnson as the third member of the power trifecta.
This is a litmus spot for Hunt. The Chiefs are -1.0 road favorites against the Texans, who this season have held each lead back they’ve faced below 6.0 fantasy points — with the exception of Leonard Fournette, whose 100-yard rushing performance in Week 1 increasingly looks like a Black Swan event for both Fournette and the Texans. Houston has held opposing backfields to the third-fewest fantasy points of the season with 17.1 DraftKings and 14.5 FanDuel PPG, and they have FO’s No. 4 defensive unit. If Hunt crushes in this spot, he’ll basically be Le’Vearbitrage for the rest of the season. We’re projecting him to be owned on FanDuel as if the market expects him to do well.
Up the Gut
Todd Gurley ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Bell has 104 touches on the season; Gurley, 106. Gurley leads the league with seven touchdowns from scrimmage and the Rams with a 21.0 percent target share. The Rams are -1.0 home favorites, and the Seahawks have a funnel defense that is 10th against the pass but 30th against the run in DVOA. Gurley leads the position with a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Jay Ajayi ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Ajayi is a potential pivot play this week. He was bad in Weeks 3-4, turning 23 carries and four targets into 79 yards and no touchdowns, but the Dolphins for the first time this season are home, where they’re just +1.0 underdogs to the Titans, who seem likely to be without quarterback Marcus Mariota (hamstring), whose absence could result in a run-friendly game script for Ajayi. Over his last 16 games (including playoffs) he has 309 carries and 38 targets for 1,554 yards, 29 receptions, and seven touchdowns.
Melvin Gordon ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): He’s a cheaper, more productive Ajayi. I’m the opposite of an MG3 truther, but in his last 16 healthy games he has 305 carries and 75 targets for 1,676 yards, 54 receptions, and 15 touchdowns — and he’s facing a Giants defense that is 31st in rush DVOA.
LeGarrette Blount ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) and Wendell Smallwood ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): In his three Eagles games as a rusher — all of which have been wins — Blount has averaged 14 carries per game for 83 yards. The Eagles are -6.5 home favorites; Blount could approach 20 carries. Smallwood is dealing with a knee injury, so monitor his situation. Over his last two games Smallwood has been effective in the Darren Sproles role with an average of 11 carries and four targets.
Marshawn Lynch ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): The Raiders are -2.5 home favorites and will likely utilize a run-heavy attack without quarterback Derek Carr (back). The opposing Ravens — who will likely be without the run-stuffing defensive tackle Brandon Williams — have allowed top-10 fantasy marks of 27.0 DraftKings and 23.9 FanDuel PPG to running backs.
Jonathan Stewart ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) and Christian McCaffrey ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Stewart is averaging 16.3 opportunities per game, and he hasn’t been this cheap on either site since 2014. The Lions have something of a funnel defense, ranking 5th against the pass but 14th against the run in DVOA. McCaffrey might get some love as a +2.0 dog under the assumption that he’ll get extra receiving work, but the Lions are currently first in pass DVOA against running backs.
Joe Mixon ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): The Bengals are -3.0 home favorites, and Mixon has averaged 17.5 carries and 3.5 targets in his two games with Bill Lazor as the play caller. That said, the Bills defense is first overall in DVOA and top-10 against the run.
Carlos Hyde ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): In San Francisco’s three close losses (9-12 at Seattle, 39-41 vs. Los Angeles Rams, 15-18 at Arizona), Hyde averaged 24 opportunities. The 49ers are just -1.5 road dogs against the Colts.
Chris Johnson ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) and Andre Ellington ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Johnson is averaging 12 carries per game and Ellington nine targets per game over the last three weeks. Given that the Cardinals are +6.5 road dogs, Ellington especially could be used against the Eagles, who are 21st in pass DVOA against running backs.
LeSean McCoy ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): McCoy has been subpar over the last three weeks with only 2.3 yards per carry, but he’s averaging 17 carries and 5.75 targets per game for the season. With a 23.5 percent target share, McCoy could still get his even though the Bills are +3.0 road dogs.
Bilal Powell ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) and Elijah McGuire ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): The Jets are on the road in a pick’em with the Browns. In the eight games since Matt Forte became a shell of himself in Week 14 last year, Powell has turned 131 carries and 36 targets into 831 yards, 30 receptions, and five touchdowns. McGuire has gotten nine opportunities per game over the last three weeks after going touchless in Week 1. By the way, “Touchless” is the name of my 90s cover band.
C.J. Prosise ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel), Thomas Rawls ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel), Eddie Lacy ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel), and J.D. McKissic ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): In the wake of Chris Carson’s campaign-ending injury, there’s a backfield vacuum in Seattle. The Seahawks are +1.0 road dogs against the Rams, who this season have allowed a league-high 33.1 DraftKings and 30.6 FanDuel PPG to opposing backfields. All of these guys are projected for low ownership. One of them could score multiple touchdowns.
Ty Montgomery ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel), Jamaal Williams ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel), and Aaron Jones ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Montgomery (ribs) and Williams (knee) are dealing with injuries, but both — especially Williams — might play. If both are out, Jones will be one of the slate’s chalkiest players against a Cowboys defense that has allowed opposing running backs to accumulate the sixth-highest fantasy totals with 29.2 DraftKings and 24.0 FanDuel PPG.
The Model Running Backs
Besides Le’Veon and Zeke, there are currently two other running backs atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Frank Gore ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
- Shane Vereen ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
Somehow — somehow — the Colts are -1.5 home favorites. It helps that they’re facing the 49ers, who have allowed opposing backfields to score the fifth-most fantasy points this season with 29.3 DraftKings and 24.6 FanDuel PPG. The Colts have been competitive in their two home games this season (Week 2, 13-16 loss to Cardinals; Week 3, 31-28 win over Browns), and in those games Gore averaged 20 touches and a touchdown with +2.98 DraftKings and +2.18 FanDuel Plus/Minus values at 1.5 and 0.1 percent ownership in tournaments. Even with Robert Turbin ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) likely to get some work — he has three carries inside the 10-yard line in four games — Gore has 20-touch upside in a contest that could afford him a run-heavy game script. Gore is the highest-rated FanDuel back in the SportsGeek Model.
I can’t believe Vereen is the highest-rated DraftKings back in two Models — Bales and CSURAM88 — but that’s what happens when a near-elite pass-catching back is cheap in a thin slate. He’s unlikely to have more usage than Wayne Gallman ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) and Paul Perkins ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel), but all he needs are a few targets and one big-ish play to hit value. Almost all of his production (11 of 12 carries; 15 of 17 targets) have come with the Giants trailing. They’re -3.5 home favorites against the 0-4 Chargers — but the Giants themselves are 0-4 and could easily trail for much of the game. Vereen has six-reception, 60-yard, one-touchdown upside.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 5 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
