The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Week 3 was one to remember. On Thursday the Rams and 49ers kicked off the proceedings with an 80.0-pointer, and by the end of the Cowboys-Cardinals game on Monday night 21 of 32 teams had hit or surpassed their implied Vegas totals. Add in the political drama of the President of the United States taking on the NFL for the second time in his life — remember the United States Football League? — and Week 3 had a little of everything. After that, Week 4 might feel like a letdown: Missing from the main slate are Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and future superstar Markus Wheaton (Thursday game); Michael Thomas, Willie Snead, DeVante Parker, and Jarvis Landry (London game); T.Y. Hilton, Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, and Paul Richardson (Sunday night, DraftKings); and Tyreek Hill, Terrelle Pryor, and Jamison Crowder (Monday night). It’s not a bye week, but it feels like one.
For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Justin Bailey’s Thursday night breakdown and Joe Holka’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). For analysis of the Saints-Dolphins game at Wembley, see my London game Vegas Report. Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.
The Big Three
You know who these three are:
- Antonio Brown ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
- Odell Beckham, Jr. ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
- Julio Jones ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
To quote Lord Tennyson: “Half a league onward.”
He’s Only as Good as His Road Favorite Quarterback
No player since 2013 has more than Antonio’s 731 targets and 44 touchdowns receiving. He’s had a minimum of 11 targets each game this year, and Brown leads the Steelers with a 32.7 percent target share. He leads the league with 26 receptions, 354 receiving yards, 492 air yards, and 140 yards after the catch (AirYards.com). If he doesn’t have an Ambassador of Quan, he should. He’s probably the league’s best all-around receiver. The problem, however, is that he is on the road, and Brown has severe per-game home/road splits, just like quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Since 2014 . . .
- Home (24 games): 11.8 targets, 8.2/108.4/1, 27.58 DraftKings points per game (PPG)
- Road (26): 10.8 targets, 7.7/99.1/0.46, 21.57 DraftKings PPG
. . . he’s been objectively good on the road — better than most wide receivers at home — but he hasn’t been AB-caliber great.
Additionally, the Steelers are playing the divisional rival Ravens. They’re -3.0 favorites, so the spot for Brown isn’t horrible, but in his last three road games against the Ravens he’s averaged 17.20 DraftKings and 13.70 FanDuel PPG and -1.69 and -1.28 Plus/Minus values at ownership rates of more than 30.0 percent. Although he’s been good this year, the Steelers offense has been bad, averaging a -5.17 Vegas Plus/Minus, and against a Ravens defense looking to atone for its Week 3 beatdown the Steelers could experience intensified road woes. I don’t mind Antonio — or Martavis Bryant ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) — as a lower-owned option. Antonio can go off in any given game: He leads the position with seven FanDuel Pro Trends and median projection, but Brown is outside of the top five in both ceiling and floor projections.
The Smaller Randy Moss
OBJ is back. After missing Week 1 with an ankle injury and playing 60.7 percent of the snaps in Week 2, Beckham looked almost all the way back to full health in Week 3 as he played 79.7 percent of the snaps and turned 13 targets into a 9/79/2 receiving line, a couple highlight clips, and one penalty-invoking canine urination touchdown celebration — as I said, OBJ is back. Through their first three seasons, Randy Moss is the only NFL player with more yards and touchdowns than OBJ’s 4,122 and 35, and Moss is the only player in history to open his career with four straight 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown campaigns. That’s what OBJ is shooting for this year.
Beckham’s in an intriguing spot. The Giants are +3.0 road dogs implied for just 20.5 points against the Buccaneers. At 0-3, the Giants should be aggressive and look to get OBJ the ball as much as possible, and the Bucs have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to opposing wide receivers with 58.9 DraftKings and 47.1 FanDuel PPG. At the same time, the Giants have exhibited little upside with Ben McAdoo as head coach — they haven’t scored more than 28 points since Tom Coughlin’s last game — and Beckham hasn’t been great away from home or as an underdog:
- Road/Neutral vs. Home (DraftKings/FanDuel): 21.32/16.75 vs. 23.36/18.62 points per game (PPG)
- Underdog vs. Favorite: 21.95/17.39 vs. 22.84/18.08
- Road Underdog: 19.20/15.10
Given the combination of factors, OBJ will likely have double-digit ownership, but it won’t be inflated.
The Moustachioed Assassin
For all the preseason talk about wanting to give Julio more opportunities near the goal line, new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has given Julio just one target inside the 10-yard line, which means that 2017 Julio looks a lot like the 2016 version — except with less target volume. In fact . . .
- 2015: 12.7
- 2016: 9.2
- 2017: 8.7
. . . Julio’s per-game target totals have been in decline for a while, partially because the Falcons have relied more on Mohamed Sanu ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) and Taylor Gabriel ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) and partially because they’ve been winning more games and haven’t needed to throw the ball as much. Still, Julio leads the team with 26 targets, 16 receptions, 265 receiving yards, 350 air yards, and 117 yards after the catch. At a minimum, Julio’s still the alpha receiver on a high-scoring team with a +1.50 Vegas Plus/Minus.
The Bills-Falcons game has a slate-high over/under of 48.5 points, and the Falcons are -8.0 home favorites, so it looks like a good spot — and there’s nothing objectionable about Julio’s matchup with the Bills secondary — but Julio has struggled since last season as a home favorite, averaging 17.44 DraftKings and 13.37 FanDuel PPG and -2.31 and -2.34 Plus/Minus values at unbelievable ownership rates of 23.2 and 33.4 percent. When the Falcons are home favorites, they tend to lean on the running game. Julio’s one of the best receivers in the league — last year he was first at Pro Football Focus with 3.12 yards per route run — but his circumstances are deceptively negative. It doesn’t help that Julio’s dealing with a back injury. For what it’s worth, he’s tied for the slate lead with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Fly Patterns
A.J. Green ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Green has 36.1 percent of Cincinnati’s targets and is fifth and sixth in the league with 383 air yards and 252 receiving yards. He still doesn’t have a target inside the 10-yard line, but overall he’s getting his action. Like Jones, he’s tied for the slate lead with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where we’re expecting him to be the highest-owned receiver. He has PFF’s eighth-most receiver-friendly matchup against Cleveland cornerback Jason McCourty.
Mike Evans ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) and DeSean Jackson ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Evans is averaging 10.5 targets per game, D-Jax has 307 air yards across two contests, and the Buccaneers are -3.0 home favorites in a game with 69 percent of the bets on the over (44 O/U), but they have a tough matchup against the Giants. Last year the Giants were fourth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and this year they’re holding wide receivers to the fourth-fewest fantasy points with 22.6 DraftKings and 17.9 FanDuel PPG. Still, Evans is tied with a position-high seven FanDuel Pro Trends.
Demaryius Thomas ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Thomas and Sanders have combined for a 53.5 percent target share and last year combined for 50 percent of Denver’s receiving touchdowns. On the plus side, the Broncos are -3.0 home favorites against a Raiders defense that last year was 25th in pass DVOA. On the negative side, since last season DT and Manny have had reverse home/road splits (10.26 DraftKings PPG vs. 12.09) and reverse favorite/dog splits (10.04 vs. 12.99). They could have reduced volume because of a run-heavy game script and are projected to be among the highest-owned receivers in the slate.
Amari Cooper ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) and Michael Crabtree ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): This — THIS is what leverage looks like. The Broncos last year were first in pass DVOA, and Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. are among the best cornerbacks in the league, but the Broncos tend not to use them in shadow coverage so both Cooper and Crabtree will get turns taking shots at Bradley Roby. After their Week 3 performances, C&C will have almost nonexistent ownership. Cooper has had one of the best two-year stretches of all time to open his career, and Crabtree has been one of the most underappreciated receivers of the last two years. Burn all your money.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel), J.J. Nelson ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), John Brown ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), and Jaron Brown ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Fitz has the Monday Night Football discount and Nelson has the MNF inadvertent markup. Fitz has PFF’s friendliest receiver matchup against 49ers cornerback K’Waun Williams. Nelson disappointed last week but was hampered with a hamstring injury. JoBro has returned to practice and might play in Week 4. If he doesn’t, Nelson is an option. In his seven games with a snap share of at least 60.0 percent, Nelson has averaged 17.1 DraftKings and 14.0 FanDuel PPG. The Cardinals have attempted the second-most pass attempts in 2017 and are -7.0 home favorites against the 49ers, who last year were 28th in pass DVOA.
Jordan Matthews ($3,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): As has been the case for the last two weeks, Matthews leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He leads the Bills with 152 yards receiving and seems destined one of these weeks to get more than three receptions. The Bills are +8.0 road dogs in what’s expected to be a shootout with the Falcons.
Brandin Cooks ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Chris Hogan ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), and Danny Amendola ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): The Patriots lead the slate with an implied total of 28.75 points, and they’re -9.0 home favorites. Even though they’ve led the league this season with an average implied total of 29.0 points, they’ve managed to outperform expectations with their 4.0 Vegas Plus/Minus. They don’t have an easy matchup against the Panthers, who have held opposing wide receiver units to bottom-eight fantasy marks with 28.4 DraftKings and 23.3 FanDuel PPG, but Cooks is sixth in the NFL with 375 air yards on the season, Hogan is tied for second with three touchdowns receiving, and Amendola has averaged 7.7 targets per game with the Patriots in nine contests without Julian Edelman.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) and Devin Funchess ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): They’re projected for less than 5.0 percent ownership, playing in a game with a slate-high 48.5 over/under, primed for a pass-heavy game script as +9.0 road dogs, and facing a Patriots defense allowing 39.7 DraftKings and 32.0 FanDuel PPG to opposing wide receiver units. In the words of George Costanza, “It’s like discovering plutonium by accident.”
Dez Bryant ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Over his last four games (including playoffs), Dez has four touchdowns. Although he got only two targets last game, he’s still averaging nine per game for the season and has plenty of upside. The problem, though, is that he’s facing the Rams, whose revamped defense — despite allowing 25.0 PPG — has held opposing wide receivers to bottom-eight marks of 29.0 DraftKings and 23.1 FanDuel PPG. Also, this is a #RevengeGame for @SonOfBum. If there’s anyone who has a solid idea of how to shut down head coach Jason Garrett’s offense, it’s former Cowboys HC Wade Phillips.
Stefon Diggs ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) and Adam Thielen ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Diggs is first and third in the NFL with four receiving touchdowns and 293 receiving yards, and Thielen is second with 299 yards. Quarterback Sam Bradford will miss Week 4, so the circumstances aren’t optimal with a 22.0-point implied total and Case Keenum at quarterback, but Diggs and Thielen are likely to have low ownership relative to their year-to-date production. It doesn’t hurt that they’re facing a Lions defense that last year was 32nd in pass DVOA.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) and Will Fuller ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): I’ve buried the lead. Nuk will be one of the slate’s most popular receivers. He has a 39.8 percent target share, quarterback Deshaun Watson has shown strong improvement over the last few weeks, and the Texans are at home against the Titans, who last year allowed top-two fantasy marks of 44.6 DraftKings and 34.8 FanDuel PPG to opposing wide receivers; this year, the third-highest marks at 41.9 and 33.9. My bold call on the Week 4 Daily Fantasy Flex was that Nuk will have a 100/1 game. Making his 2017 debut, Fuller is an option as a leverage play on or stacking partner with Hopkins. He’s likely to have almost no ownership.
Doug Baldwin ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Tyler Lockett ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), and Paul Richardson ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Available on the FanDuel (but not DraftKings) main slate, the Seahawks are -13 home favorites against the Colts, who last year were 26th in pass DVOA. I don’t mind the Sunday Night Football onslaught hammer.
The Model Wide Receivers
There are currently three wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Keenan Allen ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
- Tyrell Williams ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
- Rishard Matthews ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Allen and Williams are in a great spot. The Chargers are -2.5 home favorites implied for 25 points, and the 47.5-point over/under for the Eagles-Chargers game is the third-highest mark of the slate. Allen and Williams lead the team in targets with 29 and 18, and they face an Eagles defense that last year allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers with 40.4 DraftKings and 32.8 FanDuel PPG; this year, 41.9 and 32.4. Tyrell the Gazelle leads the position with seven Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the consensus highest-rated receiver. Allen is the top FanDuel receiver in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models. Lineups with Allen and Williams double-stacked with quarterback Philip Rivers will likely be rare.
Matthews started 2016 as a rotational receiver, but from Week 8 to now he’s never played less than 70.0 percent of the snaps in any game. Rookie Corey Davis has been ruled out for Week 4, so Matthews could have more usage. Despite competing for targets with Davis, Eric Decker, and Delanie Walker, the silent No. 1 receiver leads the Titans with a 25.3 percent target share. The Titans are implied for just 22.5 points as -1.5 road favorites, and we’re expecting Matthews to see the most coverage from No. 1 cornerback Johnathan Joseph, so he isn’t in a great spot — but it’s comparable to the spot he was in last week when the Titans were implied for 22.75 points and he turned 10 targets into a 6/87/1 stat line while drawing significant coverage from Richard Sherman. He isn’t sexy, but Matthews is a productive No. 1 receiver who’s cheap. For the third week this season, he’s the highest-rated DraftKings receiver in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 4 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
