The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Week 3 was one to remember. On Thursday the Rams and 49ers kicked off the proceedings with an 80.0-pointer, and by the end of the Cowboys-Cardinals game on Monday night 21 of 32 teams had hit or surpassed their implied Vegas totals. Add in the political drama of the President of the United States taking on the NFL for the second time in his life — remember the United States Football League? — and Week 3 had a little of everything. After that, Week 4 might feel like a letdown: Missing from the main slate are Martellus Bennett and Zach Miller (Thursday game); Coby Fleener and Julius Thomas (London game); Jimmy Graham and Jack Doyle (Sunday night, DraftKings); and Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed, and Vernon Davis (Monday night). It’s not a bye week, but it feels like one.
For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Justin Bailey’s Thursday night breakdown and Joe Holka’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). For analysis of the Saints-Dolphins game at Wembley, see my London game Vegas Report. Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.
To Gronk or not to Gronk?
Whenever Rob Gronkowski ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) is in a slate one of the first questions daily fantasy players must ask themselves is whether they wish to Gronk. When Gronk is healthy, he’s the Shaquille O’Neal of tight ends. He might not be the best of all time, but he’s probably the most dominant. Even though Gronk has missed 24 games in his career, he’s still first in the league since 2010 with 70 touchdowns receiving and 71 total touchdowns.
While Gronk didn’t impress in Week 1, finishing with a 2/33/0 receiving line, in Weeks 2-3 he erupted (despite missing snaps to a groin injury), turning 19 targets into 14 receptions, 205 yards, and two touchdowns. On the season Gronk leads the Patriots with a 22.7 percent target share and all tight ends with 18.27 DraftKings and 14.60 FanDuel points per game (PPG) with a +2.44 and +1.55 Plus/Minus. Even though they’ve led the league this year with an average implied total of 29.0 points, the Patriots have outperformed expectations with their 4.0 Vegas Plus/Minus. Gronk and the Pats are rolling.
The Patriots lead the slate with an implied total of 29.75 points and are -9.0 home favorites. Gronk has the highest median and ceiling projections in our Models and seems to be in a good spot. That said, there’s nothing especially advantageous about Gronk’s matchup. In fact, it’s fairly tough. Last year the Panthers were ninth in pass defense against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Carolina’s starting linebackers — middle linebacker Luke Kuechly and outside linebackers Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson — are all top-20 at the position with Pro Football Focus coverage grades above 80.0. Safeties Kurt Coleman and Mike Adams are both top-10 in interceptions since 2014 with 14 and 12. Gronk is probably a matchup-proof player, but it’s hard to roster a tight end facing a defense that this year is holding the position to the fourth-fewest fantasy points with 5.8 DraftKings and 4.1 FanDuel PPG. Then again, the Panthers did allow the second-most touchdowns to tight ends last year with 12.
The Dumpoff Pass
Jason Witten ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): The Cowboys are implied for 27.0 points at home as -6.0 favorites, and the #DadRunner has a smoking 15.3 PPG on FanDuel, where he’s tied for the position lead with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Charles Clay ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Clay is second on the Bills behind running back LeSean McCoy with a 23.1 percent target share. The Bills are +8.0 road underdogs against the Falcons in a game with a 48.5-point over/under (the slate’s second-highest total). Clay could benefit from a pass-heavy game script.
Evan Engram ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): The rookie has hit salary-based expectations in each game, turning 19 targets into a 13/138/1 stat line and ranking third on the Giants with a 16.2 percent target share. Through three games he has run 32.4 percent of his routes from either in the slot or split out wide. He’s basically a big wide receiver.
Cameron Brate ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) and O.J. Howard ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): The Buccaneers are -3.0 home favorites against the Giants, who have a strong defense but are still exploitable by tight ends, allowing top-three fantasy marks of 18.9 DraftKings and 14.7 FanDuel PPG to the position this year.
Jermaine Gresham ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): He’s been targeted 6.5 times per game this year, and now he’s facing a 49ers defense that last year was 27th in pass DVOA against tight ends.
Marcedes Lewis ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Lewis has played on 77.0 percent of the offensive snaps this year, last week he scored three touchdowns, this week he’s projected for minimal ownership against the Jets, and last year the Jets allowed the third-most touchdowns to tight ends with 10.
Ryan Griffin ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): With C.J. Fiedorowicz on the Injured Reserve with a concussion, Griffin played on 85.9 percent of the offensive snaps last week, turning his six targets into a 5/61/1 stat line. He has a respectable 4.4 percent touchdown rate and as a senior at Connecticut in 2012 he caught a Gronkian 60 percent of his team’s touchdown passes. He has some latent upside.
Tyler Kroft ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): In place of the injured Tyler Eifert, Kroft played on 60 of 61 snaps last week. The Bengals are -3.0 road favorites against the Browns, who have allowed 25 touchdowns to tight ends over their last 35 games. He leads the position with a 95 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s projected for almost nonexistent ownership.
Gerald Everett ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel): The Rams are +6.0 road dogs and have experienced some positive reverse line movement against the Cowboys, who last year allowed tight ends to score the second-most fantasy points with 17.3 DraftKings and 13.6 FanDuel PPG.
The Model Tight Ends
There are currently six — SIX! — tight ends atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Zach Ertz ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
- Jimmy Graham ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
- Kyle Rudolph ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
- Jared Cook ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
- Eric Ebron ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
- Jesse James ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
It’s easy to like Ertz. Over his last 12 outings, he’s turned 9.5 targets per game into a 7/75.9/0.42 stat line. In his five games since last year without former teammate Jordan Matthews, Ertz has functioned as the team’s slot man, turning 11.8 targets per game into an 8.6/92.6/0.8 line. He’s tied for the team lead with a 24.6 target share. The Eagles are +2.0 road underdogs and will likely have a pass-heavy game script for much of the contest. With the season-ending injuries to running back Darren Sproles, it’s possible that Ertz will get even more work in the short passing game. Ertz leads the position with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s tied with a slate-high 99 percent Bargain Rating and is the highest-rated tight end in the Levitan Model for the second week in a row. He has the highest floor projection in our Models and will be especially chalky on FanDuel.
Available on the FanDuel (but not DraftKings) main slate, Graham has disappointed this year with his 11/81/0 stat line on 21 targets. Still, the Seahawks are -13.0 home favorites against the Colts, who last year were 26th in pass DVOA and specifically 31st in pass DVOA against tight ends. He’s the highest-rated FanDuel tight end in the SportsGeek Model.
Like Graham, Rudolph has been horrendous this year, playing much better with quarterback Sam Bradford than Case Keenum. Bradford has already been ruled out for Week 4, so Rudolph’s viability is in question. Still, last year he led the Vikings with 132 targets and seven touchdowns, and he was second in the NFL in both raw and market share red-zone usage, finishing with 24 targets and 32.4 percent of Minnesota’s targets inside the 20-yard line. The Vikings are -1.5 home favorites against Lions, who last year were 29th in pass DVOA against the position. For the third week in a row, Rudolph is the highest-rated FanDuel tight end in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Cook has been #notbad with the Raiders. He’s second on the team with an 18.9 percent target share and 124 yards receiving and tied for first with 13 receptions. He’s seemingly in a tough spot as the Raiders are +3.0 road dogs against the Broncos, who last year were fifth against tight ends in pass DVOA. This year, however, with the departure of strong safety T.J. Ward, the Broncos are 25th in pass DVOA against the position, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends with 16.5 DraftKings and 13.3 FanDuel PPG. He leads the position with seven Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Levitan Model.
Ebron was a popular play last week on DraftKings, where he’s been in the low $3,000s for a few slates, but after his 2/9/0 Week 3 ‘performance’ on seven targets he’s unlikely to garner much ownership. He’s facing a Vikings defense that so far this year has been 29th in pass DVOA against the position. Ebron is the highest-rated DraftKings tight end in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
James is amazingly third on the Steelers with a 15.5 percent target share — wide receiver Martavis Bryant is second with 16.4 percent — and he leads the team with four targets (50 percent) inside the 10-yard line. The Steelers are -3.0 road favorites against the Ravens, who this year have allowed tight ends to score top-two fantasy marks with 18.7 DraftKings and 16.5 FanDuel PPG. James is the highest-rated DraftKings tight end in the SportsGeek Model.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the tight ends for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 4 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
