The Running Back Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Week 3 was one to remember. On Thursday the Rams and 49ers kicked off the proceedings with an 80.0-pointer, and by the end of the Cowboys-Cardinals game on Monday night 21 of 32 teams had hit or surpassed their implied Vegas totals. Add in the political drama of the President of the United States taking on the NFL for the second time in his life — remember the United States Football League? — and Week 3 had a little of everything. After that, Week 4 might be a letdown: Missing from the main slate are Ty Montgomery, Jordan Howard, and Tarik Cohen (Thursday game); Jay Ajayi (London game); Chris Carson (Sunday night, DraftKings); and Kareem Hunt and Chris Thompson (Monday night). It’s not a bye week, but it feels like one.
For analysis of the Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games, see Justin Bailey’s Thursday night breakdown and Joe Holka’s prime time breakdown (out later this week). For analysis of the Saints-Dolphins game at Wembley, see my London game Vegas Report. Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.
The Big Five
With the absence of Hunt, Ajayi, and of course David Johnson, the top of the running back salary scale is dominated by one player followed by a second tier of arbitrage plays:
- Le’Veon Bell ($8,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
- LeSean McCoy ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
- Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Todd Gurley ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
- Devonta Freeman ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Bang a gong.
“It’s Le’Ve-OH-sa, not Le’Veo-SAH”
Since Bell became his All-Pro self in 2014, he’s been the league’s best back (out of all the runners to play more than three NFL games), averaging 23.91 DraftKings and 20.11 FanDuel points per game (PPG) with +4.95 and +4.49 Plus/Minus values. Of course, this season he’s disappointed. Bell has played over 90 percent of the snaps over the last two weeks and is averaging 21.7 touches per game for the season, but his fantasy production to date downright sucks: 14.20 DraftKings and 12.03 FanDuel PPG. The Steelers offense has also been bad: They’re yet to be in a game this year that hit the over, and they have a -5.17 Vegas Plus/Minus.
On top of that, Bell isn’t in a great spot this week. The Steelers are +3.0 road underdogs against the divisional rival Ravens, who last year were fourth against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). I don’t want to make much of a small sample, but in his three road games against the Ravens he’s had fewer touchdowns (0.33 vs. 0.66) and scrimmage yards (104.3 vs. 127.2) than he’s had in all other contests on a per-game basis. With other viable options this week, many people will probably eschew a #JamEmIn strategy. Bell has the highest floor projections in our Models, but his reduced ceiling might not be offset by his reduced ownership.
“May I Have Your Attention Please?”
It’s hard to find much to complain about when a guy averages 16.0 carries per game and leads his team with a 25.6 percent target share. At the same time, McCoy has been inefficient (2.9 yards per carry), and he has only one rushing attempt inside the five-yard line to three for time-fighting fullback Mike Tolbert, who has actually managed to steal 8.7 carries per game. McCoy’s 2017 production of 16.03 DraftKings and 12.03 FanDuel PPG isn’t horrible, but he has -3.51 and -3.08 Plus/Minus values and has hit his salary-based expectations in just one game.
For Week 4, though, McCoy is in a decent spot. Although the Bills are +8.0 road dogs implied for just 20.25 points, McCoy has traditionally done well with Buffalo as a road dog (72.7 percent Consistency Rating), and the Bills-Falcons game has a slate-high over/under of 48.5 points. Whether the game script favors the pass or the run, McCoy should stay involved, as the Bills have a +5.33 Spread Differential this year: Even if they lose, they are likely to keep the game competitive enough for McCoy to get his touches. It helps that the Falcons have allowed opposing backfields to score the fourth-most fantasy points this year with 31.3 DraftKings and 26.9 FanDuel PPG. Last year they allowed 28.1 and 24.0 PPG as well as league-high marks in targets (141), receptions (109), yards (870), and touchdowns (6). This year they already lead the league with allowed targets (38).
The Wasteland
It’s possible that this could be the last game before Zeke’s six-game suspension kicks in, given that his appellate hearing is on Oct. 2. Not that he needs any extra motivation, but he has it. On the Week 4 Daily Fantasy Flex I mentioned Zeke as the probable chalk. Sure enough, we’re projecting him for 21-25 percent ownership in guaranteed prize pools. Zeke’s been Le’Veon-esque this season: He’s played an impressive 86.5 percent of the offensive snaps — and yet he’s disappointed with 15.53 DraftKings and 12.53 FanDuel PPG. Last year he had 21.5 carries per game and 5.1 yards per carry; this year, 18.3 and 3.5.
Still, he’s in a good spot. The Cowboys are -6.0 home favorites over the Rams, who have allowed opposing backfields to score the third-most fantasy points this year with 31.6 DraftKings and 29.0 FanDuel PPG. It’s probable that the Cowboys will have a run-heavy game script, and in the team’s two wins this year Zeke has averaged 23 carries per game. It’s for good reason that he leads the position with six DraftKings and 12 FanDuel Pro Trends and has the slate’s highest median and ceiling projections. At the same time, it’s possible the Rams defense (in a #RevengeGame for @SonOfBum) could neutralize the Cowboys offense. If there’s anyone who has a solid idea of how to approach head coach Jason Garrett’s offense, it’s former Cowboys HC Wade Phillips. I’m not fading Zeke because of Phillips, but it’s possible I’ll waste a chunk of time this weekend researching how offensive and defensive play callers do against each other after they’ve worked together.
The Bizzaro Los Angeles Running Back
Gurley has been one the surprises of the year. A Pro-Bowler as a rookie, Gurley had a disastrous Jeff Fisher-tainted second-year campaign that made him look like the NFL’s worst starting running back. With the addition of HC Sean McVay, the development of quarterback Jared Goff, and the overhaul of the offensive line, Gurley now leads the league with 63 carries and six touchdowns from scrimmage. Gurley has played on 85.0 percent of the offensive snaps and actually leads the Rams with a 20.2 percent target share. His efficiency isn’t great (3.8 yards per carry), but he’s been everything everyone thought the other Los Angeles stud running back would be.
Gurley isn’t in a great spot as a +6.0 road dog in the Rams-Cowboys matchup, but Dallas so far has been vulnerable to running backs. Last year the Cowboys defense was eighth in rush DVOA, but this year the unit is in the top 12 in fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields with 25.7 DraftKings and 21.0 FanDuel PPG. The Cowboys have faced only one workhorse-caliber back this season in C.J. Anderson: He turned 25 carries and three targets into 28 touches, 154 yards, and two touchdowns. It’s possible the Rams offense could have enhanced success given McVey’s familiarity with the Cowboys from his years as the Redskins offensive coordinator.
One of the Two Best Running Backs on His Team
The British comedian Jasper Carrott in 1983 said this about Ringo Starr: “Ringo isn’t the best drummer in the world. He isn’t even the best drummer in the Beatles.” That line is often attributed to John Lennon — because it’s a great line and maybe even true. Anyway, that line represents how I feel about Freeman: He’s a two-time Pro-Bowler who since 2015 is first among running backs with 3,452 scrimmage yards and second with 31 touchdowns. He’s good — but he might not be better than Tevin Coleman ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel), who over the last 16 regular season games has turned just 138 carries and 53 targets into 1,133 yards, 40 receptions, and 12 touchdowns.
Regardless of whichever Atlanta back you prefer, it seems like there should be production to go around in this game: The Falcons are -8.0 home favorites implied for 28.25 points (the second-highest mark on the slate). Although the Bills to this point have held opposing backfields to bottom-four marks with 16.2 DraftKings and 13.6 FanDuel PPG, they were 30th in rush DVOA last year (albeit with another defensive system) and have played a relatively soft rushing schedule so far. It’s notable that since 2015 Freeman has crushed as a home favorite (22.85 DraftKings and 20.39 FanDuel PPG) while Coleman (9.23 and 8.05) most definitely has not. That said, Freeman usually has higher ownership than Coleman.
Up the Gut
Melvin Gordon ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): He is a lesser Gurley, but for this week Gordon is the pivot play to the second-tier running backs. The Chargers are -2.5 home favorites with some positive reverse line movement, and MG3 is averaging 17 touches per game this year. In his six games as a home favorite since last season, MG3 has averaged 25.13 DraftKings and 21.55 FanDuel PPG with +9.80 and +8.32 Plus/Minus values, hitting his salary-based expectations in each game.
Dalvin Cook ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Cook has played on 69.6 percent of the offensive snaps and is the only player with double-digit carries on the Vikings, who are at home against a Lions team that has allowed 27.0 DraftKings and 22.2 FanDuel PPG to opposing backfields. He’s been overshadowed by Hunt, but Cook is second in the NFL with 288 yards rushing. Cook has impressed so far for a rookie.
Mike Gillislee ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) and James White ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Gillislee disappointed in Week 3, but he’s still tied for the NFL lead with four rushing touchdowns, averaging 15 carries per game, and getting the supermajority (83.3 percent) of New England’s carries inside the five-yard line. The Patriots are -9.0 home favorites, so Gillislee could get his usual allotment of touches. As for White, he’s played 18 games with quarterback Tom Brady over the last 12 months. In those games he’s averaged 5.7 targets and 2.8 carries per game for 51.4 yards, 4.3 receptions, and 0.5 touchdowns on 42.0 percent of the offensive snaps. On DraftKings, he actually has a higher projected ceiling than Gillisless (at a fraction of the projected ownership) on account of his receiving prowess.
Bilal Powell ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Matt Forte has turf toe and is expected to miss Week 4. In the last month of the 2016 campaign, Forte missed two games and was limited in the other two, averaging just 3.5 carries. In those four games, Powell turned 20.5 carries and 5.75 targets per game into 138 scrimmage yards, 5.25 receptions, and 0.75 touchdowns. He will probably share snaps with the rookie Elijah McGuire ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), but Powell seems likely to dominate touches.
Joe Mixon ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Mixon has double-digit touches in each game and last week played as the lead back, seeing 55.7 percent of Cincinnati’s snaps and 21 touches. The Bengals are -3.0 road favorites over the Browns and still searching for their first win of the season. Mixon will likely still have to deal with Giovani Bernard ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) and Jeremy Hill ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) stealing carries, but he could be relied on heavily if the Bengals are in a position to run out the clock.
Chris Johnson ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) and Andre Ellington ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): The Cardinals are -7.0 home favorites implied for 25.75 points against the 49ers, who have allowed opposing backfields to score the sixth-most fantasy points this year with 28.8 DraftKings and 24.8 FanDuel PPG. Last week Johnson and Ellington combined for 17 carries and 10 targets.
Christian McCaffrey ($6,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): He’s costly on DraftKings, where the full point-per-reception scoring benefits him most, but McCaffrey is cheap on FanDuel, where he leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. CMC is first on the Panthers with a 25.8 percent target share and makes for a sneaky (bad) stacking partner with quarterback Cam Newton. Jonathan Stewart ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) will still get carries — he’s averaging 15 carries per game — but CMC has a sweet matchup against a Patriots team that has allowed 33.9 DraftKings and 29.8 FanDuel PPG to opposing backfields this season and has been exploited by backs with pass-catching skills. A +9.0 road dog, CMC is likely to enjoy a pass-heavy game script.
The Model Running Backs
Besides Zeke, there’s currently one other running back atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek): Lamar Miller ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel).
Miller seems like the lesser McCoy: He’s yet to get a carry inside the 10-yard line this year, and he’s disappointed with his 10.20 DraftKings and 9.20 FanDuel PPG, hitting salary-based expectations just once. Nevertheless, he is the clear lead back for the Texans and has gotten 15-21 touches in every game this year. The Texans are +1.5 home underdogs against the Titans, who last year allowed just the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing backfields with 19.1 DraftKings and 16.6 FanDuel PPG, but at home the Texans have given Miller an average of 21.4 carries and three targets. It’s hard to ignore that type of volume, especially on DraftKings, where Miller hasn’t been priced below $5,000 since joining the Texans. A cheap back with upside, Miller’s the highest-rated DraftKings back in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 4 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
