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Week 2 was better than Week 1, but not by much. Although a higher percentage of games hit the Vegas over in Week 2 (43.8 percent) in comparison to Week 1 (33.3 percent) a comparable percentage of teams (34.4 percent in Week 2; 33.3 in Week 1) still fell short of the implied totals. By and large, teams are failing to score points, and wide receivers have significantly underperformed their salary-based expectations. Week 3 might not be much better.
For analysis of the Thursday and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday Night NFL Breakdown and Justin Bailey’s Prime Time NFL Breakdown (out later this week). For analysis of the Ravens-Jaguars game at Wembley, see my London game Vegas Report.
The Big Three
You know who these three are:
- Julio Jones ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
- Antonio Brown ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
- Odell Beckham, Jr. ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
To quote Lord Tennyson: “Half a league onward.”
The Moustachioed Assassin
For all the talk in the preseason about wanting to give Julio more opportunities near the goal line, new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has given Julio just one target inside the 10-yard line, which means that 2017 Julio looks a lot like the 2016 version — except with less target volume: Jones is second on the team with 24.6 percent of the targets, while Mohamed Sanu ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) leads the Falcons with 15 targets. Still, Julio leads the team with a healthy 144 air yards (AirYards.com), and since 2012 he’s averaged an unbelievable 100.8 receiving yards per game (YPG). Julio is still the primary receiver in a dynamic offense: This season the Falcons have exceeded their high implied Vegas average of 27.75 PPG.
The Falcons are 3.0-point road favorites implied for 26.75 points against the Lions in a game with the slate’s second-highest over/under at 50.5. While those numbers are advantageous, Julio has a tough matchup with Lions cornerback Darius Slay, who last week defended Beckham on 70.4 percent of his routes (Pro Football Focus) and is expected to shadow Julio. Still, last year Julio was PFF’s No. 1 receiver with a 96.5 overall grade; he was also first with 3.12 yards per route run (YPRR). If the Falcons want to funnel targets to Julio, Slay is probably not good enough to keep Julio from balling out.
He’s Only as Good as His Road Favorite Quarterback
No player since 2013 has more than Antonio’s 717 targets and 43 touchdowns receiving. Each of the last two weeks he’s had 11 targets, leading the team with a 31.0 percent target share and the league with 122 yards after the catch and 3.3 YPRR. He’s second in the NFL with 286 air yards. He’s probably the league’s best all-around receiver. The only potential problem with Brown is that he’s on the road, where his per-game splits have unfortunately mirrored quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s since his 2013 breakout:
- Home (32 games): 11.3 targets, 7.8/106.4/0.94
- Road (33): 10.7 targets, 7.5/94.1/0.39
Of course there’s a lot of noise in these splits — Martavis Bryant ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) is absent from many of the games in this sample — and Brown did crush on the road in Week 1 with an 11/182/0 stat line. This week the Steelers are 7.5-point favorites implied for 25.75 points against the Bears, who are expected to line cornerback Kyle Fuller up with Brown in PFF’s fourth-most receiver-friendly matchup. Brown’s ownership has been low this season, and there’s the possibility that he could go off again with single-digit ownership on the road. Last week Roethlisberger-Brown-Bryant stacks were in only 0.28 percent of Millionaire Maker lineups.
The Smaller Randy Moss
There’s not a lot to say about OBJ, whose season has been derailed by a preseason ankle injury. He sat out Week 1 and played on just 60.7 percent of the snaps in Week 2, turning five targets into a 4/36/0 outing that surely made Adam Levitan giddy. When healthy, Beckham is capable of all-time great performances — only Randy Moss had more yards and touchdowns through his first three seasons than OBJ’s 4,122 and 35 — but right now he’s not healthy, and the Giants are implied for only 18.25 points as 6.0-point road underdogs against the Eagles. The Giants have exhibited little upside with Ben McAdoo as head coach — they haven’t scored more than 28 points since Tom Coughlin’s last game — and Beckham hasn’t been great away from home or as an underdog:
- Road/Neutral vs. Home (DraftKings/FanDuel): 20.96/16.39 vs. 24.08/19.21 points per game (PPG)
- Underdog vs. Favorite: 21.65/17.08 vs. 23.60/18.70
- Road Underdog: 18.51/14.44
We’re projecting Beckham for an ownership rate of less than 5.0 percent — but even so it’s hard to be optimistic about an injured receiver facing a divisional rival in circumstances under which he’s historically been less than his best.
Fly Patterns
Jordy Nelson ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel), Davante Adams ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel), Randall Cobb ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), and Geronimo Allison ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): The Packers are implied for 26.5 points as 8.5-point home favorites against the Bengals. They should crush, but they’ve also experienced some negative reverse line movement, as the spread has dropped from -10 even though 77 percent of the bets are on the Packers. Nelson is expected to play after missing most of Week 2 with a quad injury — Nelson has top-two ceiling projections in our Models — but Cobb is still questionable with a chest injury. Adams has impressed this year with 203 air yards and is likely to have elevated ownership with the injuries to Nelson and Cobb. If either of them misses the game, Allison will likely become a chalky play in cash games. In three Cobb-less games last year, Allison played on 62.8 percent of the snaps, turning 5.7 targets into a 3.3/59.3/0.67 stat line and 13.3 DraftKings and 11.6 FanDuel PPG.
Brandin Cooks ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Chris Hogan ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), and Danny Amendola ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): The Patriots lead the slate with an implied total of 28.75 points, and they’re 13.5-point home favorites. They don’t have an easy matchup against the Texans, who have held opposing wide receiver units to bottom-five fantasy marks with 32.8 DraftKings and 25.6 FanDuel PPG, but Cooks has 193 air yards on the season, Hogan is coming off a 5/78/1 performance, and Amendola (who seems likely to play after missing Week 2 with a concussion and knee injury) has averaged eight targets per game with the Patriots in eight contests without Julian Edelman. None of them is likely to have double-digit ownership.
Michael Thomas ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) and Ted Ginn ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): The Saints are 6.0-point road underdogs against the division rival Panthers and hoping not to go to 0-3. Thomas and Ginn are projected for less than 5.0 percent ownership — and Drew Brees is their quarterback.
Stefon Diggs ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) and Adam Thielen ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Lines are yet to be set for the Buccaneers-Vikings game. If quarterback Sam Bradford plays, then Diggs and Thielen warrant consideration in guaranteed prize pools. In Week 2, the Bucs allowed 52.5 DraftKings and 40.0 FanDuel points to Bears wide receivers. Reminder: The Bears don’t have wide receivers.
Amari Cooper ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) and Michael Crabtree ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): That Crabtree is more expensive than Cooper is ridiculous. Through two weeks, Cooper has the higher target share (30.0 percent vs. 21. 7), more targets inside the 10-yard line (four vs. two), and more expected fantasy points based on where they were targeted on the field (32.5 vs. 22.4, RotoViz). The Raiders are implied for 28.5 points and share a slate-high 54.0-point over/under with the Redskins, who last year were 24th in pass DVOA.
Terrelle Pryor ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) and Jamison Crowder ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): The Redskins are 3.0-point home underdogs against the Raiders, who lead the league in scoring with 35.5 PPG. With what’s likely to be a pass-heavy game script, Pryor and Crowder should have enhanced target equity. The Redskins relied on the running game in their Week 2 win, but in Week 1 Pryor and Crowder combined for 249 air yards. Crowder has top-four marks with seven DraftKings and six FanDuel Pro Trends.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) and Devin Funchess ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): The Panthers are 5.5-point home favorites implied for 26.0 points against the Saints, who this year have allowed opposing receiver units No. 2 overall fantasy marks of 47.9 DraftKings and 39.4 FanDuel PPG.
Mike Evans ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) and DeSean Jackson ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Evans is the top-tier pivot receiver for Week 3. Last week Evans had 22.3 DraftKings and 18.8 FanDuel points on a 7/93/1 performance at only 9.5 and 10.8 percent ownership. This week he could have reduced ownership because the Bucs are on the road against the Vikings, who over the last two weeks have held Thomas (5/45/0) and Antonio (5/62/0) to a collective 10.4 DraftKings and 7.6 FanDuel PPG. That said, Pro Bowl cornerback Xavier Rhodes is dealing with a hip injury and could be exploitable. As for D-Jax, last week he got 135 air yards on his seven targets. His upside is intact.
Jordan Matthews ($3,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): As was the case last week, Matthews leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he has an almost nonexistent ownership projection. They’re playing against a tough Broncos defense that was first in pass DVOA last year, but the Bills are 3.0-point underdogs; they’ll need to throw the ball. Matthews is likely to garner more than the three targets he got last week — and the week before that.
Keenan Allen ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) and Tyrell Williams ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): This is an obligatory reminder that if you subscribe to FantasyLabs you’re required to like these two guys all the time no matter the circumstances.
Golden Tate ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Kenny Golladay ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), and Marvin Jones ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): The Lions are 3.0-point home underdogs against the Falcons in a game with a 50.5-point total. Any/all of these receivers can/should be stacked with quarterback Matthew Stafford in multi-entry GPPs.
Tyreek Hill ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Friendly reminder: In his six Jeremy Maclin-less contests, Hill has averaged 8.0 targets per game. In his last 14 games (including playoffs) Hill has 11 touchdowns.
T.Y. Hilton ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Rarely is Hilton this cheap. He’s in a poor situation without quarterback Andrew Luck, but the Colts are just 1.5-point underdogs at home against the Browns, who last year were 29th in pass DVOA.
Rashard Higgins ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): On Sep. 16, the Browns signed Higgins off their practice squad. On Sep. 17, he started for them, played 76.1 percent of the offensive snaps, and led the team in targets (11), receptions (7), and yards (95). In one dynasty league I’m in, famed high-stakes player Shawn Siegele of RotoViz spent literally all $1,000.00 of his free-agent acquisition budget on the second-year former Colorado State Ram. The Colts this year have allowed wide receiver units to rack up top-three marks with 44.8 DraftKings PPG and 35.8 FanDuel PPG.
Demaryius Thomas ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Both of these guys have multi-touchdown upside. Neither will have double-digit ownership.
Jermaine Kearse ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): He leads the team with a 22.2 percent target share, and the Jets will likely have a pass-heavy game script as 6.0-point home underdogs to the Dolphins. Amazingly, Kearse was in the Week 2 Millionaire Maker-winning lineup.
Kendall Wright ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) and Markus Wheaton ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Last week Wright wasn’t awful with his 7/69/0 stat line on 10 targets, and Wheaton looks a lot like post-Steelers Manny. We’re projecting both for no more than 1.0 percent ownership. The Bears are 7.5-point dogs and will need to throw. I like the idea of rolling back Steelers stacks with Wright or Wheaton — especially Wheaton. If you want to win a big GPP, you need a Kearse-esque no-one-saw-it-coming type of player in your tournament lineups. Wheaton (and maybe even Wright) has that potential. Of all the receivers on the Bears roster, Wheaton is getting paid the most this year: $5.25 million.
The Model Wide Receivers
There are currently two wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- A.J. Green ($8,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
- Rishard Matthews ($4,200 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
Green was the top fantasy receiver last year with 22.04 DraftKings and 17.04 FanDuel PPG before his season-ending hamstring injury in Week 11. With 11 targets per game, Green was top-five at the position with a 28.7 percent target share and 18.0 percent hog rate (PlayerProfiler) as well as 2.86 YPRR. The problem was that now-former offensive coordinator Ken Zampese gave him only four targets inside the 10-yard line last year and not one in the first two weeks this year. With quarterbacks coach Bill Lazor now serving as OC, it’s possible that Green’s red-zone usage will increase — and Green wasn’t doing all that poorly to begin with. His 18 targets are good for a 30.0 percent team market share, and his 213 air yards are seventh in the league. Before this week, Green had never been cheaper than $8,000 on FanDuel, where he’s absurdly discounted with a 99 percent Bargain Rating, tied for the position lead with six Pro Trends, projected to have the highest ownership of any player, and the consensus highest-rated receiver. Green has PFF’s most receiver-friendly matchup against Packers cornerback Damarious Randall, who is allowing a league-high 0.49 fantasy points per route. Teammate Brandon LaFell ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) is also in play against cornerback Davon House.
Matthews started 2016 as a rotational receiver, but from Week 8 to now he’s never played less than 70.0 percent of the snaps in any game. Rookie Corey Davis has been ruled out for Week 3, so Matthews could have more usage. Despite competing for targets with Davis and Eric Decker ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) as well as tight end Delanie Walker, Matthews leads the team with a 21.9 percent market share. The Titans are implied for just 22.75 points as 3.0-point home favorites against the Seahawks, and Matthews is expected to be matched up with cornerback Richard Sherman for most of the game, so his circumstances are subpar — but he’s a productive No. 1 receiver who’s cheap. He leads the position with eight Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the consensus highest-rated receiver.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 3 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s wide receivers for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
