The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Week 2 was better than Week 1, but not by much. Although a higher percentage of games hit the Vegas over in Week 2 (43.8 percent) in comparison to Week 1 (33.3 percent) a comparable percentage of teams (34.4 percent in Week 2; 33.3 in Week 1) still fell short of the implied totals. By and large, teams are failing to score points, and tight ends have significantly underperformed their salary-based expectations. Week 3 might not be much better.
For analysis of the Thursday and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday Night NFL Breakdown and Justin Bailey’s Prime Time NFL Breakdown (out later this week). For analysis of the Ravens-Jaguars game at Wembley, see my London game Vegas Report.
To Gronk or not to Gronk?
Whenever Rob Gronkowski ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) is in a slate one of the first questions daily fantasy players must ask themselves is whether they wish to Gronk. When Gronk is healthy, he’s the Shaquille O’Neal of tight ends. He might not be the best of all time, but he’s probably the most dominant. Even though Gronk has missed 24 games in his career, he’s still first in the league since 2010 with 69 touchdowns receiving and 70 total touchdowns.
While Gronk didn’t impress with his performance in Week 1, finishing with a 2/33/0 receiving line, his six targets and 78 snaps played (96.3 percent) were encouraging. In Week 2 he broke out with a 6/116/1 performance on nine targets — and then he exited early with a groin injury. The injury isn’t believed to be serious, and Gronkwoski leads the Patriots with a 20.0 percent target share, but he missed practice on Wednesday and was limited on Thursday. He seems likely to play in Week 3 — and the Patriots are in a good spot as 14.0-point home favorites — but it’s hard to invest in Gronk when he’s injured and facing a Texans defense that last year held opposing tight end units to bottom-three fantasy marks of 8.9 DraftKings and 6.8 FanDuel points per game (PPG). Gronkowski has the highest ceiling projections in our Models, and he almost always warrants exposure in guaranteed prize pools, but he’s risky for cash games.
The Dumpoff Pass
Travis Kelce ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Kelce leads the Chiefs in target share (27.9 percent), receptions (13), and attitude (#tough). He was a top-two fantasy tight end last year with 15.06 DraftKings and 11.28 FanDuel PPG in his All-Pro campaign, and last week he went Zeus Mode with an 8/103/1 performance on 10 targets. Kelce led all tight ends in ownership with rates of 10.4 and 12.3 percent on DraftKings and FanDuel last year, and this week he could have single-digit ownership against the Chargers. Kelce leads the position with a 96 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Delanie Walker ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) and Jimmy Graham ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Although Walker and Graham are both good players, it’s hard to get excited about the tight ends in this Seahawks-Titans affair. The over/under is 42.5 points, the Seahawks held tight end units last year to bottom-four marks of 9.6 DraftKings and 7.5 FanDuel PPG, and Graham has missed practice this week with an ankle injury and has just a 13.6 percent target share. As the grunge poet says, “I stay away.”
Eric Ebron ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): He has the Monday Night Football discount and a tasty matchup against a Falcons team that last year allowed tight end units a No. 6 fantasy finish with 15.3 DraftKings and 12.2 FanDuel PPG. Ebron will be a popular play for people who don’t want to pay up.
Martellus Bennett ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): His ownership will be low, and he’s at home against the Bengals, who last year allowed top-four fantasy marks of 16.5 DraftKings and 13.1 FanDuel PPG to opposing tight ends. He already has 17 targets on the season and could be used more aggressively in Week 3 with the injuries to wide receivers Jordy Nelson (quad) and Randall Cobb (chest).
Jack Doyle ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): He has a 19.3 percent target share and a juicy matchup against the Browns, who last year were 32nd against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Over the last 34 games the Browns have allowed 25 touchdowns to tight ends. Just last week they allowed the arm of Joe Flacco and body of Ben Watson to turn eight targets into eight receptions and 91 yards.
Ed Dickson ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): He’s filling in for the injured Greg Olsen (foot, Injured Reserve), and he’s facing a Saints defense that this year has allowed 19.9 DraftKings and 15.9 FanDuel PPG to opposing tight ends. Dickson had a 528-yard, five-touchdown campaign in 2011, so he has some experience pretending to be a tight end. Panthers stacks with Dickson will likely have low GPP ownership.
Julius Thomas ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): ASJ is reportedly out of shape coming off his suspension, but if he plays he has a nice matchup. Last year the Dolphins allowed the third-most touchdowns to tight ends with 10. As it happens, so did the Jets. If you were to roster these two guys together, your lineups would almost certainly be 1) unique, 2) contrarian, and 3) bad.
Coby Fleener ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Fleener has a nice matchup against the Panthers, who last year allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends with 12. Additionally, the sample is small, but in Fleener’s three games without Willie Snead (suspended) he’s averaged 7.0 targets per game for a 5/65.3/1 stat line. The Saints are 5.5-point road underdogs and will likely have a pass-heavy game script.
Jesse James ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): James is second on the Steelers with an 18.3 percent target share, and the Bears last year were 28th in pass DVOA against the position. This year they’ve allowed 16.3 DraftKings and 13.3 FanDuel PPG to opposing tight ends.
The Model Tight Ends
There are currently four tight ends atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Jordan Reed ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
- Zach Ertz ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
- Kyle Rudolph ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Jared Cook ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Reed exited Week 2 early with a chest injury, but he seems likely to play in Week 3. He missed practice on Wednesday before getting in a limited session on Thursday. If he’s unable to play, Vernon Davis ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) will be in consideration. Reed has been Gronkian since 2014 with 15.76 DraftKings and 12.51 FanDuel PPG, and he’s in a good spot this week. The Redskins are implied for 26.0 points as home underdogs, and they’re facing the Raiders in a game with a slate-high 55.0-point over/under. There’s potential with the Redskins, as they’ve experienced positive reverse line movement: Even though only 24 percent of the spread bets are on them, the Redskins have moved down from +3.5 to a crucial threshold of +3.0. Reed’s health is a concern and should keep his ownership low, and the Raiders were 23rd in pass DVOA against the position last year. Reed is the highest-rated FanDuel tight end in the SportsGeek Model.
It’s easy to like Ertz. Over his last 10 outings, he’s turned 9.6 targets per game into a 6.8/75.9/0.4 stat line. In his four games since last year without former teammate Jordan Matthews, Ertz has functioned as the team’s slot man, turning 12.3 targets into an 8.8/102.0/0.8 line. The Eagles are implied for 24.25 points as 6.0-point home favorites against the Giants, who have a strong defense but are still exploitable by tight ends. Last year the Giants were 26th in pass DVOA against the position; this year they’ve allowed top-six fantasy marks to tight end units with 17.7 DraftKings and 14.5 FanDuel PPG. Ertz leads the position with seven DraftKings Pro Trends and is the highest-rated FanDuel tight end in the Levitan Model. He will be popular.
Rudolph last year led the Vikings with 132 targets and seven touchdowns, and he was second in the NFL in both raw and market share red-zone usage, finishing with 24 targets and 32.4 percent of Minnesota’s targets inside the 20-yard line. If quarterback Sam Bradford plays, then Rudolph warrants consideration in guaranteed prize pools. Rudolph leads the position with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Cook is in a great spot. The Raiders this season have crushed their average implied total of 26.25 points with a +9.25 Vegas Plus/Minus, and they’re implied for a slate-high 29.0 points this week against the Redskins, who last year allowed the most receptions (114) and yards (1,178) to tight ends. Cook is third on the team with an 18.3 percent target share, and he’s caught 81.8 percent of his targets so far. He’s the consensus highest-rated tight end in the DraftKings Models.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 3 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s tight ends for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
