The Quarterback Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Week 2 was better than Week 1, but not by much. Although a higher percentage of games hit the Vegas over in Week 2 (43.8 percent) in comparison to Week 1 (33.3 percent) a comparable percentage of teams (34.4 percent in Week 2; 33.3 in Week 1) still fell short of the implied totals. By and large, teams are failing to score points, and quarterbacks have significantly underperformed their salary-based expectations. Week 3 might not be much better.
For analysis of the Thursday and Monday night games, see Joe Holka’s Thursday Night NFL Breakdown and Justin Bailey’s Prime Time NFL Breakdown (out later this week). For analysis of the Ravens-Jaguars game at Wembley, see my London game Vegas Report.
The Big Four
Last week we had two marquee matchups featuring the four highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks from last season. This week they once again sit atop the salary scale:
- Tom Brady ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)
- Aaron Rodgers ($7,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
- Drew Brees ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
- Matt Ryan ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Let’s grind.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
The feeling in New England is that this 18-1 is going to be so much sweeter than the last one. A week (10 days) after completing just 44.4 percent of his passes in a season-opening home loss, Brady had one of the best games of his career, throwing for 447 yards and three touchdowns on 30-of-39 passing. Two games into the season, Brady leads the NFL with 714 yards passing and the Patriots are exceeding their league-high implied Vegas average of 29.0 PPG. Naturally, even though they’re facing a Texans defense that has held opposing teams to the sixth- and seventh-fewest yards (24.0) and plays (5.3) per drive, the Patriots are second in the slate with a 28.25-point implied total. They lead the slate as 13.0-point favorites. Week 1 was a long time ago.
But that doesn’t mean Brady’s a great play. Brady is already without wide receivers Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell (who are on the Injured Reserve), and wide recievers Danny Amendola (concussion, knee), Chris Hogan (knee), and Phillip Dorsett (knee), tight end Rob Gronkowski (groin), and pass-catching running back Rex Burkhead (ribs) are all dealing with injuries. Not all of them will miss Week 3, but some of them could. As you probably already know, ever since Gronk entered the league Brady has suffered without his stud tight end:
- With Gronk (88 games): 292.2 yards, 2.20 touchdowns, 0.44 interceptions
- Without Gronk (22): 260.5 yards, 1.86 touchdowns, 0.64 interceptions
The most expensive quarterback in the slate, Brady’s coyly risky for a double-digit home favorite. They’ve played against only Blake Bortles and Andy Dalton so far, but the Texans have allowed just 9.9 fantasy points per game (PPG) to opposing quarterbacks this year, and last year they were fifth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
“R-E-L-A-X”
Rodgers is similar to Brady this week. He’s a big 8.0-point favorite at home, and the Packers are implied for a robust 26.25 points. Rodgers is a stud at Lambeau, where in his last 16 games as a home favorite with wide receiver Jordy Nelson he’s averaged 26.33 DraftKings and 24.58 FanDuel PPG with +6.13 and +4.11 Plus/Minus values. Of course, Jordy (quad) suffered an injury in Week 2 and exited the game after only seven snaps. He’s reportedly 50-50 to play in Week 3. Since Nelson’s breakout in 2011, Rodgers has been less than his best without White Lightning:
- With Nelson (69 games): 284.0 yards, 2.49 touchdowns, 0.48 interceptions
- Without Nelson (21): 246.1 yards, 1.95 touchdowns, 0.43 interceptions
Other key players for Rodgers are also dealing with injuries: Wide receiver Randall Cobb (shoulder), left tackle David Bakhtiari (hamstring), and right tackle Bryan Bulaga (ankle, illness). Cobb suffered his injury in Week 2 and is reportedly day to day, but the bookend linemen both missed Week 2 and are uncertain for Week 3. That doesn’t bode well for the passing game.
On top of that, the Packers might not even need to pass the ball to win easily. The Packers are facing the 0-2 Bengals, whose offense has been so horrific (4.5 PPG) that teams have run against them a league-high 77 times and thrown against them a league-low 41 times. Last year the Packers at home beat the Seahawks 38-10 in Week 14 as Rodgers attempted only 23 passes. This week he could have fewer than 25 pass attempts.
When the Saints Go Marching Into the End Zone
The Saints are second in the league with 632 net yards via the passing game, 31st with 32.5 PPG allowed on defense, and about 88 percent likely not to make the playoffs after their 0-2 start. In other words, they’re in midseason form. Brees is averaging 323.5 passing yards per game (YPG) — he averaged 325.5 last year — and that’s with a tough Week 1 matchup against the Vikings, who ‘held’ him to only 291 yards. Brees has disappointed so far, averaging just 20.44 DraftKings and 18.94 FanDuel PPG, but his fantasy underperformance is due to an uncharacteristic 3.7 percent touchdown rate that is bound to improve: Since joining the Saints in 2006, only once has Brees finished a season with less than a 4.7 percent touchdown rate.
The Saints are seemingly in a bad spot as 6.0-point road underdogs to the Panthers, who have held opposing quarterbacks to bottom-two marks of 7.9 DraftKings and 7.4 FanDuel PPG, but those marks are deceiving. The Panthers have teed off in good spots against subpar reality (vs. fantasy) quarterbacks in Bryan Hoyer and Tyrod Taylor, the first of whom is with a new team and the second of whom is with a new head coach and offensive coordinator. Brees is no Hoyer or Tyrod. In his 11 games against HC Ron Rivera’s Panthers defense, Brees has averaged 329.7 yards and 2.55 touchdowns passing.
“Defeat”
With 17.91 DraftKings and 16.41 FanDuel PPG and -2.54 and -2.87 Plus/Minus values, Ryan has disappointed this season as a fantasy quarterback — and we knew he would regress — but he hasn’t been bad in actuality. In fact, 2017 Ryan looks a lot like the 2016 version:
- Completion rate (percent): 69.0 vs. 69.9
- Adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A): 10.6 vs. 10.1
- Total QBR (ESPN): 78.1 (first) vs. 79.6 (first)
If you can’t figure out which season is which, that’s because they’re basically identical — with the exception of two (massively important) stats:
- Touchdown rate (percent): 3.4 vs. 7.1
- Attempts per game: 29.0 vs. 33.4
The problem with Ryan is that this year he’s throwing fewer touchdowns per attempt and attempting fewer passes overall — but the Falcons are 2-0 and averaging 28.5 PPG, so that’s a problem for fantasy, not reality. As it is, this week fantasy and reality might converge. The Falcons are 3.0-point road favorites implied for 26.5 points against the Lions, whose defense last year was dead last in pass DVOA. Ryan has the top ceiling projection in our DraftKings Models.
Hot Routes
Cam Newton ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): The Panthers are 6.0-point home favorites implied for 26.5 points against the Saints, who have allowed an NFL-high 31.16 DraftKings and 28.16 FanDuel PPG to quarterbacks. The 2015 Most Valuable Player leads the slate with six Pro Trends at DraftKings, where he’s projected with a position-high ownership rate.
Derek Carr ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): The road Raiders lead the slate with a 28.5-point implied total and share a 54.0-point over/under with the Redskins, who last year were 24th in pass DVOA.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): With -2.82 DraftKings and -1.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus values, Roethlisberger has underperformed salary-based expectations in both games this season, and now he’s on the road, where since 2014 he’s averaged -2.78 and -3.22 Plus/Minus values. Still, the Steelers are implied for 25.75 points as 7.5-point favorites against the Bears, who’s four starting defensive backs and two starting outside linebackers all have poor Pro Football Focus grades of less than 50.0. We’re projecting Roethlisberger for less than 5.0 percent ownership.
Russell Wilson ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Wilson has disappointed for two consecutive weeks, so his ownership should be minimal against the Titans, whose defense last year was 27th in pass DVOA. Wilson is this week’s definition of contrarianism.
Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): Stafford has the Monday Night Football discount, and the Falcons-Lions game has the slate’s second-highest total at 50.5 points. Last year the Falcons were top-three in PPG (20.8 DraftKings, 19.9 FanDuel) allowed to quarterbacks. Stafford has a top-two positional ownership projection for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Josh McCown ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): He’s completing 67.2 percent of his passes and facing a Dolphins secondary with four starters who have poor PFF grades of less than 60.0. He’s been owned at far less than 1.0 percent in guaranteed prize pools this year.
Trevor Siemian ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Siemian is running hot with a league-leading six passing touchdowns and 10.0 percent touchdown rate. He will cool off soon, but his 65.0 percent completion rate and 8.0 AY/A — up 5.5 percentage points and 1.2 adjusted yards from last year — suggest that Siemian is developing into an NFL-caliber quarterback.
DeShone Kizer ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Kizer has the slate’s third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and an almost nonexistent ownership projection against the Colts, who are 29th with 31.0 PPG allowed to opposing teams and 325 passing YPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Jameis Winston ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Winston is the first passer in NFL history with 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, but he’ll likely have reduced ownership against a Vikings defense that held Brees and Roethlisberger to 15.64 and 17.52 fantasy PPG in Weeks 1-2. Still, the Vikings have allowed the eighth-most passing YPG (267) to opposing quarterbacks this year. They’re subtly vulnerable.
Deshaun Watson ($4,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) and Tyrod Taylor ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): I wouldn’t actually roster either of these quarterbacks against the Patriots or Broncos, but I’m also a risk-adverse wimp. They lead the slate with 99 percent Bargain Ratings on DraftKings and will have almost no ownership.
The Model Quarterbacks
There are currently two quarterbacks atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Kirk Cousins ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- Andy Dalton ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
Cousins is the pivot quarterback for this slate. Last year he completed 67.0 percent of his passes for 307.3 YPG. This year, he’s shaved 5.8 percentage points off his completion rate and 97.8 YPG off his passing total, failing to reach salary-based expectations in each game with -5.31 DraftKings and -6.30 FanDuel Plus/Minus values. Still, Cousins is in a good spot. The Raiders-Redskins game leads the slate with a 54.0-point over/under, and Washington is implied for a respectable 25.5 points as a 3.0-point home underdog. Cousins should enjoy a pass-heavy game script against the Raiders defense, which last year was 25th in pass DVOA and this year is top-12 in PPG (17.8 DraftKings, 17.3 FanDuel) allowed to quarterbacks. To date he’s been owned at 3.0 and 2.8 percent DraftKings and FanDuel GPPs. Under HC Jay Gruden, Cousins has averaged 20.62 DraftKings and 19.2 FanDuel PPG as a home dog. He’s the top passer on DraftKings and FanDuel in most of our Models.
Dalton has been horrible this year — his 3.2 AY/A is last in the league — but he’s due for improvement: His career AY/A before this season was 7.0, and the Bengals just fired milquetoast OC Ken Zampese and replaced him with quarterbacks coach Bill Lazor, who should in theory be a more Dalton-friendly play caller. Dalton has a good matchup against a poor Packers secondary, which has five starters with PFF grades of less than 60.0, and he’s never been cheaper than he is now on DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s the highest-rated quarterback in the Levitan Model for DraftKings, where he’s tied for the slate lead with six Pro Trends.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 3 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s quarterbacks for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
