The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Week 17 offers one of the most intriguing slates of the year. Each team has a different degree of motivation: Some teams are highly incentivized to win, while others would benefit from losses. It’s basically the playoffs and preseason rolled into one 16-game slate — and it’s incredible.
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the 12-game main slate although it has wider applicability.
The Big Two
Two players are atop the tight end salary scale this week.
- Rob Gronkowski ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Travis Kelce ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Once more unto the breach, dear friends.
To Gronk or not to Gronk?
Whenever Gronk is in a slate one of the first questions daily fantasy players must ask themselves is whether they wish to Gronk. When healthy, Gronk’s the Shaquille O’Neal of tight ends. Even though Gronk has missed 26 games, he leads the league with 76 touchdowns receiving since 2010. First on the Patriots with 8.1 targets per game, Gronk is atypical in that, despite his size and prowess as a blocker, he leads all starting tight ends with an average depth of target of 12.1 yards. Of all the receivers quarterback Tom Brady has targeted in the post-Deflategate suspension era, Gronk has gifted Brady with the highest adjusted yards per attempt at 12.4. Gronk often isn’t the best daily fantasy play on account of his elevated salary, but he’s the most productive fantasy tight end this year and the best all-around player at his position.
The Patriots lead the slate with an implied total of 30.0 points as -16.5 home favorites, and they are motivated: A win guarantees them the No. 1 seed. The Patriots have the slate’s highest passing points expectation, so there could be a lot of aerial fantasy goodness to go around. Gronk theoretically has a tough-ish matchup against the Jets, who are 12th against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) thanks to rookie strong safety Jamal Adams. Even so, Gronk ethered the No. 6 pick when they faced off earlier in the season, turning 10 targets into six receptions, 83 yards, and two touchdowns. Gronk is an important part of New England’s identity: He’s likely to get his no matter what, and he could see extra targets if wide receiver Chris Hogan (shoulder) misses the game. Because of all the uncertainty surrounding many teams in this slate, Gronk will likely be popular. He leads all tight ends with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has position-high median, ceiling, and floor projections. Gronk is the consensus No. 1 DraftKings tight end in our Pro Models and also the top FanDuel option in the Levitan Model.
Mount Olympus, Kansas City
Kelce has a position-high 100 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel — but it probably doesn’t matter. The Chiefs are locked in as the No. 4 seed, and they’ve already announced that they are resting quarterback Alex Smith and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The team has no incentive to give Kelce playing time.
The Dumpoff Pass
Antonio Gates ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): The Chargers are in a must-win game, Gates last week played 76.7 percent of the offensive snaps without Hunter Henry (kidney, Injured Reserve) and turned eight targets into six receptions, 81 yards, and a touchdown, and the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position with 14.8 DraftKings and 11.9 FanDuel points per game (PPG). The Chargers are -7.0 home favorites, and Gates has an exploitable matchup against safeties Karl Joseph and Reggie Nelson, who have poor Pro Football Focus coverage grades of 53.4 and 42.7. Even though he’s much more expensive than he was last week, Gates still has the opportunity to be a Plus/Minus superstar. As mentioned on the Week 17 Daily Fantasy Flex, Gates is a possible pivot play for people who want move away from Gronk.
Greg Olsen ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): #überWitten is back! Olsen is getting heavy target volume, and he’s played more than 92.0 percent of Carolina’s offensive snaps in each of the past three weeks. The Falcons are 22nd in pass DVOA against tight ends, and the Panthers have a shot at the No. 2 seed with a win.
Charles Clay ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): It’s not a coincidence that over the past two weeks Clay has gotten 19 targets: Slot receiver Jordan Matthews (knee, IR) has been out, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been starting. Clay should continue to see regular volume in the middle of the field, and the Dolphins have allowed the second-most points to the position with 15.9 DraftKings and 12.8 FanDuel PPG.
Jimmy Graham ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Graham has struggled recently with only two receptions in the past three games, and he’s no longer a yardage accumulator, but he has 10 touchdowns and a two-point conversion over his past 11 games. The Seahawks need to win to make the playoffs, and Graham has strong correlation with quarterback Russell Wilson, so if you want to roster Wilson in guaranteed prize pools use our Lineup Builder to create Seattle stacks. The Seahawks are favored by -8.0 points at home, where Graham benefits from significant splits (54.1 yards and 0.52 touchdowns per game in Seattle; 41.3 and 0.33 on the road).
Kyle Rudolph ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Rudolph has 41 targets inside the red zone since last season and a team-high 15 touchdowns receiving over the past two years. He’s been especially hot since Minnesota’s Week 9 bye, scoring five touchdowns over the past seven games. The Vikings are implied for 25.5 points as -13.0 home favorites against the Bears, and a win will secure the No. 2 seed for Minnesota.
Delanie Walker ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Walker leads the Titans with 106 targets, 71 receptions, 788 receiving yards, and 1,045 air yards. Since his Week 8 bye he has hit salary-based expectations in six of eight games. The Titans will make the playoffs with a win, and the Jags — in addition to having no incentive to play — are weakest in pass DVOA to tight ends (as opposed to wide receivers and running backs).
Eric Ebron ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Ebron has a 100 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings since his Week 7 bye, and over the past three weeks he has 20 receptions, 210 yards, and two touchdowns on 26 targets. The Lions have nothing to compete for, but they’re -7.0 home favorites and reportedly plan to play their starters.
Vernon Davis ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): The Redskins haven’t been competing for a playoff spot for about a month, and Davis has still been playing, so he will presumably get his usual snaps as a -3.5 road favorite against the Giants, who are incentivized to lose to lock up the No. 2 pick in the draft and have allowed the most fantasy points to the position with 16.0 DraftKings and 13.2 FanDuel PPG. With Jordan Reed (hamstring) on IR, Davis is in a #SmashSpot. Over the past two years, Davis has averaged 5.1 targets per game without Reed for 3.3 receptions, 43.2 yards, and 0.31 touchdowns.
Vance McDonald ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): It’s hard to know how to project McDonald since the Steelers reportedly plan to rest players, but they are still -6.0 home favorites against the Browns, who are dead last in pass DVOA against tight ends and have allowed a league-high 33 touchdowns to the position since 2015.
Cameron Brate ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Brate disappointed last week, but he should still have a reasonable target floor without rookie tight end O.J. Howard (ankle, IR). In his 27 games since last year with Jameis Winston as the starter, Brate has averaged 5.4 targets per game for 3.7 receptions, 43.9 yards, and 0.52 touchdowns. The Saints-Bucs game has a slate-high over/under of 48.0 points.
George Kittle ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Kittle played ahead of Garrett Celek last week, and he has an intriguing matchup this week. The Rams have been solid against tight ends this year thanks to safeties Lamarcus Joyner and John Johnson III: Joyner is PFF’s No. 1 safety in coverage, and Johnson is No. 13. This week, however, the Rams reportedly plan to give their starters some rest, so Kittle might have the opportunity to exploit some backups. In Jimmy Garoppolo‘s four starts with the 49ers, they have averaged 27.5 PPG and a +6.25 Vegas Plus/Minus.
Josh Hill ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Stone minimum, Hill is facing a Bucs defense that is 30th in pass DVOA overall. He’s not at the Coors Field of fantasy football, but the Saints will win the NFC South and get a first-round home game with a victory over the Bucs, and Hill provides leverage on his high-profile teammates.
Tyler Kroft ($2,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): There’s nothing exciting about Kroft and the Bengals, but he could benefit from a pass-heavy game script as a +10.0 road dog against the Ravens, who have a tight end-flowing aerial funnel defense: They rank fourth, first, and ninth in pass DVOA against primary, secondary, and supplementary wide receivers but 30th against tight ends. Kroft leads the position with a 100 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Rhett Ellison ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Stud rookie Evan Engram (ribs) is out for Week 17, and the Redskins have allowed the sixth-most points to tight ends with 14.3 DraftKings and 11.7 FanDuel PPG. Burn your money.
David Njoku ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): He’s played over 50 percent of the snaps in five of the past seven games, and he leads the Browns with four touchdowns receiving. The only tight ends in NFL history with that many touchdowns as 21-year-old rookies are Gronk and Aaron Hernandez. At some point — whether it’s this year, next year, or in his third year — the Njoku breakout is coming. Against a Steelers team planning to rest starters, Njoku could find pay dirt.
The Model Tight End
Besides Gronk, there’s one tight end atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek): Jack Doyle ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel).
The Colts are -5.5 home favorites, and the Texans are last in the league with a -4.57 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. The Colts have nothing to play for (except for perhaps coach Chuck Pagano), but that’s been the case almost all season: Doyle seems likely to see his usual complement of snaps, and the Texans are 26th in pass DVOA against tight ends. Doyle leads the Colts with 103 targets, 76 receptions, and 322 yards after the catch. As a pass catcher he is less of a tight end and more of a wide receiver, running 76.5 percent of his routes when lined up in the slot or out wide, and his low average depth of target of 4.8 yards has helped him convert 73.8 percent of his opportunities into receptions as a security blanket for quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The No. 1 FanDuel tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, and SportsGeek Models, Doyle will likely be popular among players who don’t want to pay up for Gronk.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the tight ends for yourself with our tools, and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
