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Week 17 offers one of the most intriguing slates of the year. Each team has a different degree of motivation: Some teams are highly incentivized to win, while others would benefit from losses. It’s basically the playoffs and preseason rolled into one 16-game slate — and it’s incredible.
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the 12-game main slate although it has wider applicability.
The Big Four
Four players — all of whom are motivated — are atop the quarterback salary scale this week.
- Ben Roethlisberger ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Russell Wilson ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
- Tom Brady ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Cam Newton ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Let’s grind.
The Eternal Return
Roethlisberger opened the season as the most expensive quarterback on DraftKings, and now at the end of the year he once again has the highest salary at his position. Time is a flat circle. Even though stud wide receiver Antonio Brown (calf) is out, Roethlisberger has the potential to smash. The Steelers are -12.5 home favorites against the winless Browns, who have a quarterback-friendly funnel defense that is third against the run but 29th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Roethlisberger’s matchup is highly favorable, and he’s the most productive home quarterback in the league. The Steelers have a chance to earn the No. 1 seed with a win, and they could give the divisional rival Browns just the second 0-16 season in history. The Steelers and Roethlisberger should be fully motivated.
“Nine-Meal, 4,800-Calorie Diet”
Wilson got in shape during the offseason by consuming a ton of food, and he’s been straight up eatin’ since his Week 6 bye, playing as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in the league with 2,540 passing yards, 396 rushing yards, and 26 total touchdowns in the past 10 games. He has, though, failed to meet salary-based expectations in the past two weeks, completing just 54.9 percent of his passes for only 235 yards, and now he has a tough matchup against the division rival Cardinals, who have a strong secondary with shutdown corner Patrick Peterson as well as No. 2 corner Tramon Williams and rookie strong safety Budda Baker, both of whom have top-12 Pro Football Focus grades at their positions. Still, the Seahawks are -10.0 favorites at home, and No. 1 wide receiver Doug Baldwin runs most of his routes out of the slot, where he’s historically avoided Peterson’s shadow coverage. Wilson has strong correlation with tight end Jimmy Graham, who has 10 touchdowns and a two-point conversion over the past 11 games. If you roster Wilson in guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack him with Graham. Of the team’s 36 offensive touchdowns, 35 have been scored by Wilson as either a passer or runner. Based on team-agnostic merit, he probably deserves to be the league’s Most Valuable Player. Wilson leads the position in Pro Trends on FanDuel and is the top quarterback in the Bales Model on DraftKings.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
After throwing just two interceptions through the first 10 games of the season, Brady has now thrown six over the past five games — and he hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in any game during that span. He’s the MVP frontrunner, but Brady hasn’t been a positive Plus/Minus player for a while: He’s failed to hit salary-based expectations in eight of his past 11 games, and his struggles aren’t unexpected. Four of his past five games were against divisional opponents (plus the Steelers, whom have now played the Pats three times in 14 months), and as Brady has aged he’s tended to underperform in the second half of the season against teams familiar with him. Since 2011 he’s averaged 20.9 fantasy points per game (PPG) against the AFC East after Week 9 and 26.0 against all other opponents. Brady also hasn’t been helped by playing five of his past seven games on the road. This week the Pats are at home, but they’re facing the divisional rival Jets. Nevertheless, Brady will likely be popular: The Pats are -16.5 favorites, and a win guarantees them the No. 1 seed. The Patriots have the slate’s highest passing points expectation, and the Jets have allowed top-six fantasy marks to quarterbacks with 19.7 DraftKings and 19.2 FanDuel PPG. Brady leads all quarterbacks with six Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he has position-high median, ceiling, and floor projections and is the highest-rated quarterback in the CSURAM88, Levitan, and SportsGeek Models. He’s also the No. 1 FanDuel passer in the SportsGeek Model.
“Wham, Bam, Thank you Cam!”
As mentioned on the Week 17 Daily Fantasy Flex, Newton is a potential chalk lock. He has been inconsistent, but the Panthers-Falcons game has playoff implications for both teams, and his play has radically improved since the Panthers traded away Kelvin Benjamin. He’s throwing the ball less often per game (27.8 attempts vs. 33) and accumulating fewer passing yards (183 vs. 229.1), but he’s scoring more touchdowns (2.0 vs. 1.63), throwing far fewer interceptions (0.29 vs. 1.38), and running for way more yardage (62.9 vs. 31.9). Benjamin’s absence might not be the reason for the turnaround, but his departure at least hasn’t prevented Cam from producing. Wide receiver Devin Funchess has emerged as a viable No. 1 option in the passing game, tight end Greg Olsen is back to his #überWitten ways, and running back Christian McCaffrey trails only Le’Veon Bell at his position with 75 receptions. Even though the Panthers are +4.0 road underdogs, Newton could have a big game against a Falcons defense that is dead last in time (3:01) and plays (6.4) allowed per drive.
Hot Routes
Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): In his four starts with the 49ers he’s completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 1,250 yards and 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). The 49ers are -3.5 road favorites because the Rams reportedly plan to rest their players, which means that Jimmy G should have a much easier time against the defense that otherwise is third in pass DVOA. Jimmy GPP has a position-high 65 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Philip Rivers ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): For the five games after his Week 9 bye Rivers was on fire, completing 66.5 percent of his passes for an average of 316.6 yards and two touchdowns per game, but over the past two weeks Rivers has imploded with a 55.3 percent completion rate for 258.5 yards and one touchdown per game as the Chargers have averaged just 13.5 points. This week, though, the Chargers are incentivized to win, and they are -8.0 home favorites against the Raiders, whose defense is 27th in pass DVOA.
Drew Brees ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Even though Brees is not at the Coors Field of fantasy football, the Saints-Buccaneers game leads the slate with an over/under of 50.5 points — but that doesn’t mean he should be rostered. Brees is still playing well — his 2017 AY/A of 8.2 is superior to his half-decade (2012-16) AY/A of 7.8 — and he always has the chance to go off for a 300-yard, three-touchdown game, but Brees is averaging just 33.7 pass attempts per game compared to 41.5 for the previous five seasons. Unless the Saints have a negative game script they don’t seem likely to lean on the pass, and their status as -7.0 favorites doesn’t suggest that they’ll need to throw often. The Bucs defense is 30th in pass DVOA, so the matchup is good, but Brees can’t be counted on with his diminished volume.
Matt Ryan ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): The Falcons are last in the league with a -4.33 Vegas Plus/Minus, and Ryan is yet to pass for more than two touchdowns in any game. They’re -4.0 home favorites against the Panthers and are implied for 25.25 points. A win gets them into the playoffs, so the Falcons are motivated, but they’ve been inconsistent all year, and Ryan is last among all starting quarterbacks with his -3.58 DraftKings and -3.69 FanDuel Plus/Minus values.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): The Bills are fighting for a playoff spot, Taylor has rushing upside, and the Dolphins defense is 26th in pass DVOA. Of all the quarterbacks with something to play for, Tyrod could have the lowest ownership.
Matthew Stafford ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Head coach Jim Caldwell has indicated that the Lions will play their starters even though they’re out of the playoffs. The Lions are playing for their third winning season in four years (and also maybe Caldwell’s job). They’re -7.0 home favorites implied for 25.25 points against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, who have allowed opponents to hit their implied totals in a league-high 10 of 15 games and might be without No. 1 cornerback Damarious Randall (knee).
Kirk Cousins ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): The Redskins haven’t been competing for a playoff spot for about a month, and Cousins has still played every snap, so they’re presumably playing to win as -3.0 road favorites against the Giants, who are incentivized to lose to lock up the No. 2 pick in the draft and have allowed top-two fantasy marks of 21.1 DraftKings and 20.0 FanDuel PPG to quarterbacks. Cousins has hit salary-based expectations just once since the Week 11 season-ending injury to running back and pass-catching savant Chris Thompson (leg), but Cousins’ 8.0 AY/A is in line with his 7.9 mark from 2015-16. He could crush in what might be his last game with the team.
Case Keenum ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Since Teddy Bridgewater was activated in Week 10, Keenum has played at a peak level, completing 70.8 percent of his passes for 249.7 yards and two touchdowns per game, but he had his worst game of the season last week and now faces a Bears team that has a +4.52 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus with Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback. The Vikings could struggle to hit their implied total of 26.25 points, and as -13.0 home favorites they might deemphasize Keenum with a run-heavy approach. He’s enticing with his position-high 100 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, but he’s also risky.
Sean Mannion ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): If Rams HC Sean McVay is to be believed, the third-year backup is slated to make his first career start this week. He wasn’t a great player at Oregon State (7.0 AY/A), but the Rams are first in the league with 31.0 PPG and a +6.85 Vegas Plus/Minus and have hit their implied Vegas expectations in a near-elite 11 games. Going against a 49ers defense that has allowed top-three fantasy marks of 20.8 DraftKings and 19.9 FanDuel PPG to quarterbacks, Mannion is a contrarian GPP play.
Bryce Petty ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): The Patriots have allowed top-six fantasy marks of 20.0 DraftKings and 18.8 FanDuel PPG to opposing quarterbacks, and Petty could benefit from a pass-heavy game script as a -16.5 road dog. YOLO.
Patrick Mahomes ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): With the Chiefs locked in as the No. 4 seed, Alex Smith will take the week off and his first-round backup will finally get the opportunity to play. A strong producer at Texas Tech with 9,705 yards passing, 741 yards rushing, and 99 total touchdowns in his two full seasons as a starter, Mahomes has an elite combination of arm strength (55 miles per hour) and athleticism (6.88-second three-cone). The sample is small, but in the preseason Mahomes looked like a future franchise quarterback, completing 63.0 percent of his 54 passes for 390 yards and four touchdowns (with no interceptions) and adding eight rushes for 44 yards. The Broncos have experienced some positive reverse line movement as -3.5 home favorites, but they’ve allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league with 29. Facing a defense that has allowed opponents to hit their implied Vegas totals in 10 of 15 games, Mahomes will be popular with people who want to pay down at quarterback.
The Model Quarterbacks
Other than Wilson and Brady, there’s one quarterback atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek): Jacoby Brissett ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel).
Brissett isn’t inordinately cheap, but he’s not expensive considering his matchup against the Texans, who have allowed top-three marks of 21.4 DraftKings and 19.8 FanDuel PPG to quarterbacks. Additionally, the Texans are last in the league with a -4.57 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus, and the Colts are -4.0 favorites at home, where wide receiver T.Y. Hilton can leverage his indoor/outdoor splits (81.4 yards and 0.44 touchdowns per game vs. 60.3 and 0.25). The Texans have an exploitable secondary, as cornerbacks Kareem Jackson and Kevin Johnson both have poor PFF coverage grades below 45.0. Brissett passed for 308 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans when they last played in Week 9, and Hilton — who is just 48 yards shy of his fifth straight 1,000-yard campaign — devastated the Texans with 175 yards and two touchdowns on nine targets. The Colts might have reduced ownership because they have nothing to play for (except for perhaps coach Chuck Pagano), but that’s been the case almost all season. Brissett pulls off the Full Donk as the highest-rated FanDuel quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Levitan Models.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the quarterbacks for yourself with our tools, and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
