The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
It’s Week 16. It’s not all that different from Week 15, except now it might be harder to watch football due to pre-Christmas activities — and that’s why I don’t celebrate Christmas.
Happy Festivus. I’ve got a lot of problems with you people.
Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 12-game main slate.
The Big Two
Two players are atop the tight end salary scale this week.
- Rob Gronkowski ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
- Travis Kelce ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Once more unto the breach, dear friends.
To Gronk or not to Gronk?
Whenever Gronk is in a slate one of the first questions daily fantasy players must ask themselves is whether they wish to Gronk. When healthy, Gronk’s the Shaquille O’Neal of tight ends. Even though Gronk has missed 26 games, he leads the league with 75 touchdowns receiving since 2010. First on the Patriots with 8.2 targets per game, Gronk is atypical in that, despite his size and prowess as a blocker, he leads all starting tight ends with an average depth of target of 12.3 yards. Of all the receivers quarterback Tom Brady has targeted in the post-Deflategate suspension era, Gronk has gifted Brady with the highest adjusted yards per attempt at 12.4. Gronk often isn’t the best daily fantasy play on account of his elevated salary, but he’s the most productive fantasy tight end this year and the best all-around player at his position.
The Patriots lead the slate with an implied total of 29.75 points as -12.5 home favorites, but they might not have it easy: The Bills have held opponents below their Vegas expectations in a league-high 10 games. Although he is a matchup-proof receiver, Gronk has a tough matchup: The Bills defense is 12th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) thanks in part to shutdown rookie cornerback Tre’Davious White and stud veteran safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, all of whom have top-five Pro Football Focus coverage grades at their positions. After Gronk’s suspension-worthy hit on White in Week 13, the Bills might do everything they can to shut down Gronk. Nevertheless, Gronk is an important part of New England’s identity, and when the Pats faced the Bills last Gronk had nine receptions for 147 yards on 11 targets. Gronk has position-high median and ceiling projections, is tied with Kelce for the most DraftKings Pro Trends at seven, and is the No. 1 FanDuel tight end in the Levitan Model.
Mount Olympus, Kansas City
As mentioned on the Week 16 Daily Fantasy Flex, Kelce is a potential chalk lock. Zeus leads the Chiefs with 114 targets, 79 receptions, 1,157 air yards, and seven touchdowns. He’s second on the team with 991 yards receiving and 405 yards after the catch. At worst, Kelce is the 1B to wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s 1A. He’s a market share monster. Kelce has run 493 routes this year: 118 were as an inline tight end, but 245 were from the slot, 125 were out wide, and four were from the backfield. Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the league, but when the Chiefs use him as a pass catcher he’s less of a tight end and more of a big-bodied wide receiver. The Chiefs line him up wherever they want or need to in order to get him the ball.
The Chiefs are -10.5 home favorites against the Dolphins, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends with 15.1 DraftKings and 12.1 FanDuel points per game (PPG). As long as Kelce gets targets, he should be able to produce against safeties Reshad Jones and T.J. McDonald and linebackers Lawrence Timmons, Kiko Alonso, and Chase Allen, not one of whom has a PFF coverage grade of even 70.0. In his three games with offensive coordinator Matt Nagy as the play caller, Kelce has averaged 9.3 targets per game. We’re projecting him to be popular. With position-high floor projections, Kelce leads all tight ends with seven Pro Trends on DraftKings and nine on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, and SportsGeek Models.
The Dumpoff Pass
Evan Engram ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Engram has had bouts of inconsistency as a rookie, but since the season-ending injuries to wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) and Brandon Marshall (ankle) in Week 5 he has led the Giants with 79 targets, 44 receptions, 510 receiving yards, 694 air yards, 237 yards after the catch, and five receiving touchdowns. Engram could benefit from a pass-heavy game script as a +3.5 road underdog. Engram is having one of the greatest rookie tight end campaigns of all time: The only rookie tight end to have more receptions through 14 games than Engram’s 63 was Keith Jackson (74), who opened his career with three straight All-Pro seasons (1988-90). Engram has a position-high 97 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating.
Delanie Walker ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Walker leads the Titans with 101 targets, 68 receptions, 755 receiving yards, and 1,025 air yards. Since his Week 8 bye, he has hit salary-based expectations in six of seven games. This week Walker faces the Rams, who are 10th in pass DVOA against tight ends thanks to safeties Lamarcus Joyner and John Johnson III and linebacker Mark Barron: Joyner is PFF’s No. 1 safety in coverage, and Johnson and Barron are top-24 cover men at their position. Walker, though, could still have a big game: The Rams have allowed four touchdowns to the position over the past two weeks.
Greg Olsen ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): #überWitten is back! Olsen has played more than 90.0 percent of Carolina’s offensive snaps over the past two weeks, and last week he resumed his role as quarterback Cam Newton‘s No. 1 option, turning 12 targets into nine receptions, 116 yards, and a touchdown. Olsen’s foot injury still seems to be an issue — he’s not as fast as he was at the beginning of the season — and he doesn’t have a great matchup against the Buccaneers, who have held tight ends to the fourth-fewest fantasy points with 10.1 DraftKings and 8.0 FanDuel PPG, but as long as Olsen is out there running routes he’s likely to get targets.
Vernon Davis ($3,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): With Jordan Reed (hamstring) on Injured Reserve, Davis is the primary tight end for Washington. Davis hasn’t been consistent with the Redskins, but he’s had pockets of production. Over the past two years, Davis has averaged 5.3 targets per game without Reed for 3.4 receptions, 43.3 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns, and now he has a great matchup against the Broncos. Last year they were fifth against tight ends in pass DVOA. This year, however, with the departure of strong safety T.J. Ward via free agency, the Broncos are 26th. In total, opposing tight ends have scored the third-most fantasy points against the Broncos with 15.3 DraftKings and 12.5 FanDuel PPG. Davis has a position-high 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Jimmy Graham ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): After scoring nine touchdowns and a two-point conversion in the previous eight games, Graham over the past two weeks has managed to turn five targets into one reception and negative yardage, highlighting how fragile he is as a fantasy asset at this point in his career: He’s no longer a yardage accumulator, so if he doesn’t score a touchdown he’s likely to disappoint. This week he has a serviceable matchup against the Cowboys, who are 24th in pass DVOA against tight ends. Graham has strong correlation with quarterback Russell Wilson, so if you want to roster Wilson in guaranteed prize pools use our Lineup Builder to create Seahawks stacks. Per our friends at Bet Labs, the Seahawks could be undervalued after their blowout loss.
Cameron Brate ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Rookie tight end O.J. Howard (ankle) has been placed on IR, so Brate could see a bump in targets. In his 26 games since last year with Jameis Winston as the starter, Brate has averaged 5.5 targets per game for 3.7 receptions, 45.1 yards, and 0.54 touchdowns. Brate could benefit from a pass-heavy game script, as the Bucs are +10.0 road dogs against the Panthers.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($2,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): ASJ started the season hot, but he hasn’t scored since Week 7 or had more than four targets since Week 13, and now he has a tough matchup against the Chargers safety duo of Jahleel Addae and Tre Boston, both of whom have good PFF coverage grades above 80.0.
Garrett Celek ($2,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Celek has played at least 65.0 percent of the offensive snaps for the 49ers in each of the past six games, and in his three outings with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback he’s turned 11 targets (three inside the 10-yard line) into seven receptions, 160 yards, and two touchdowns. Even though the 49ers have a tough matchup against the Jaguars, the sharps are on the 49ers (per Sports Insights). When the 49ers throw, it would make a lot of sense for them not to target the guys covered by All Pro cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye.
Jason Witten ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Witten is second on the Cowboys with 75 targets, 56 receptions, and five touchdowns. The Cowboys are -5.0 home favorites against the Seahawks, and they should get an offensive boost with the return of running back Ezekiel Elliott: With Zeke, the Cowboys have averaged 28.3 PPG this year. Due to a number of injuries, the Seahawks have given up 72 points over the past two weeks.
Marcedes Lewis ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Lewis leads the Jags with five receiving touchdowns, and they are -4.0 favorites against the 49ers, who have allowed five touchdowns in six games to tight ends since strong safety Jaquiski Tartt (arm) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9. The Jags are No. 1 in the Bet Labs power rankings. If you’re not stacking Lewis with quarterback Blake Bortles in at least one GPP lineup, you’re not livin’.
Charles Clay ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Last week was the first time all season in which Clay was healthy, slot receiver Jordan Matthews (knee) was out, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor was the starter. Without needing to compete with Matthews for targets in the middle of the field, Clay had nine targets for five receptions and 68 yards. The Bills will need to throw the ball as +12.5 road dogs.
Eric Ebron ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Ebron has a 100 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings since his Week 7 bye, and over the past two weeks he has 15 receptions, 127 yards, and a touchdown on 18 targets. The Lions are -4.5 road favorites against the Bengals, who are 30th in pass DVOA against tight ends.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): RSJ has averaged five targets over his past five games, and he’s facing the Giants, who have allowed the most points to tight ends with 17.0 DraftKings and 14.1 FanDuel PPG — but he’s yet to play even 40.0 percent of the snaps in any game.
Adam Shaheen ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) and Dion Sims ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Shaheen is dealing with a chest injury, but he got in a limited practice on Thursday and has a chance to play this week against the Browns, who have allowed the second-most points to the position with 16.2 DraftKings and 13.1 FanDuel PPG. They are dead last in pass DVOA against tight ends and have allowed a league-high 33 touchdowns to the position since 2015.
Josh Hill ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Stone minimum, Hill is at the Coors Field of fantasy football, and the Saints have the slate’s second-highest implied total at 29.0 points. Hill (shoulder) is dealing with an injury, but he’s averaged about two-thirds of the offensive snaps over the past month, and he provides leverage on his high-profile teammates.
David Njoku ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): He’s played over 50 percent of the snaps in four of the past six games, and he leads the Browns with four touchdowns receiving. The only tight ends in NFL history with that many touchdowns as 21-year-old rookies are Gronk and Aaron Hernandez. At some point — whether it’s this year, next year, or in his third year — the Njoku breakout is coming.
The Model Tight Ends
Besides Gronk and Kelce, there’s one tight end atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek): Antonio Gates ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel).
In what could be the penultimate game of the Hall-of-Famer’s career, Gates is the consensus No. 1 DraftKings tight end even though he hasn’t garnered more than five targets in a game since Week 4 or played even 50.0 percent of the offensive snaps since Week 6. Why is he rated so highly? Stud Chargers tight end Hunter Henry (kidney) has been placed on IR, so Gates will once again be the starter. With Henry out Gates will likely see more targets, and he has nine red zone targets on the season, but the Jets are seventh in pass DVOA against tight ends thanks primarily to rookie strong safety Jamal Adams, who has a good PFF coverage grade of 80.3. Gates is just a touchdown-or-bust player, but the Chargers have the slate’s highest passing points expectation, so he has a chance of getting in the end zone at the stone minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel. At his reduced price, if all Gates does is catch three passes for 30 yards and a touchdown he’ll be a Plus/Minus superstar.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the tight ends for yourself with our tools, and read the other Week 16 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
